A big factor in my decision to convert btc to sp was the 2 year power down. 
I wasnt worried when the price dropped because I knew all the other sp holders were limited in their ability to panic and run. 
I'm sure Dan and Ned know what they're doing, but this change is shaking my confidence.

In my head the anticipation of a cut in long term supply has pushed up the price recently. However when the larger power downs come I to play the price will probably come under pressure as some major redistributions take place.

It's a function of liquidity at the moment, there's just less liquidity right now so price has the ability to be pushed excessively.

As far as what I understand is those who are powering down is to gain profit while selling when the price goes up. If I look for is why would I power down when the market is low. What do I make at this time?

> After the hardfork, a huge amount of Steem will be made available as liquid.
> Some of that Steem will be sold on the open market.
> **Do you think that this will cause a decrease in the price of Steem?**

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Absolutely.  After November 16th, at the three-month point, the people who didn't want to wait 104 weeks will all dump simultaneously.  The price *might* indeed suffer a massive crash at that point.  But it'll be a healthy, massive, cleansing dump that allows the weak positions out, replaced by strong positions.

I'm really looking forward to it.  Those are always satisfying.

It is definitely an item of concern. I think everyone is worried / wondering what the result will be. The consensus seems to be that in the long run it will be good, but nobody really knows what to expect for the short-term.

At least me personally (although I am not a huge SP holder) I plan to continue holding. I might try to increase my stake too if the price gets low enough too. I suspect there are others who will do the same.

The way I see it, it could go either way :)

>After the hardfork, if every Steem account powered-down all at once, 8 times the amount of Steem would appear all at once. That is, we'd see about 14.2 Million Steem all at once, or just over $3,000,000 dollars.

This is assuming that all of these accounts *will* power down. I think that would be a very bad assumption to make, considering the number of people currently powering up. Also - it is assuming that there won't be new users joining and powering up, or new investors in the platform that have been reluctant to buy in because of the current inflation and vesting period. Basically, we shouldn't make assumptions about possible price movements based on a single factor.

I think there will be some users who want to power down and leave, but there will also be many users who will power up because they know they won't be locked in for two years. And if inflation is also cut, there should be less volatility in prices. We're starting to see patterns take shape on the price charts - we're seeing some short-term support/resistance points that should be confirmed over the next few weeks and months. With the new changes, we should get more data, and more *reliable* data relatively quickly. 

We might see prices drop at first, or we might see them rise. It all depends on how the changes are perceived/received from potential users and investors. It seems to be a move in the right direction based on the price movements the last couple of days. A lot of the current user base sees these changes as positive for Steem and Steemit. I think that will be the general consensus with non-users as well, but we'll just have to see how it plays out.

My opinion is that, overall, the changes will be a great improvement and should help stabilize prices and the Steem "economy." But we still need a lot more development and ways to use the currency. That's what will ultimately support the currency prices - wider adoption and use of both Steem and Steemit.

Both dan and ned have pledged not to power down during an initial period after the change.  They are the largest SP holders, and I wonder if you took this into account with your calculations.

Just the announcement of the change has caused investors to bid up the price over 100%.  That makes me think that there is more confidence out there in the long term value of steem.  Therefore, I think the bottom, as new liquid steem comes online, will be higher than it otherwise would have been, and I don't see a sell off that takes the price lower than the recent low of around 9 cents. I think we were very near an all time low at 9 cents, even with no changes made.  The charts seemed to show a bottom forming.

 We have seen buyers come in, as the price sank lower over the last 3 months, and it was an orderly sell off.  I think any future sell off will be more slow and will turn around at a higher price.  That is my opinion on the matter! :)

Your analysis ignores any potential positive effects from the change such as:

1. Removed _prospective_ selling pressure as a cloud over the market, since those accounts no longer would be powering down and selling week after week for (>3) months and years. 
2. Buyers being _more_ willing to buy and power up, because exiting is easier. 
3. Buyers being _more_ willing to buy and not power up, because hyperinflation doesn't make this a completely non-viable approach.
4. Greater understanding of the platform, eliminating bogus criticisms and objections to it as a Ponzi scheme "because 100% interest!"
5. Greater understanding of the platform, eliminating bogus criticisms and objections to it as investors unable to retain value "because 100% inflation!"

Like you I might not be in favor of just reducing the vesting time from 2 years to 3 months.

However i don't think its a big deal.  The market is going to value the coin either way. The inflation rather is the bigger deal here that will have a drastic effect.

Overall what matters is the value the platform delivers and the utility the currency will have so that there is actual demand for it.

I REALLY have mixed feelings about this one.
I JUST powered up a decent amount. It's not huge, but a decent amount for me, invested from other resources. It was done leveling in as Steem came down. The pop helped some, but some is still underwater. I assumed a reverse trend and high inflation adjustment for SP.
OTOH, I just powered up a lot, and the price of Steem may assume a trend reversal that can make it a lot more valuable. The loss of the higher inflation adjustment is a concern, and the new adjustment is so small as to be irrelevant. But if Steem goes up because of these decisions, who am I to complain?
We'll never know if folks in my shoes would have been better off leaving things as they currently are. But I do think it's the better course for Steemit. And I love the idea of making Steem an actual viable currency. IMO, that, along with the potential integrations with Steemit, will ultimately be fare more valuable.
So, not worried about folks powering down and dumping. I think that they should if they don't have the stomach for it. Then stronger hands will take hold and the price will equilibrate and become stable.

If I put on mine business owners hat, the only reason for me not to want 2 years long investments is - *I don't have any long projects to last for 2 years*
Otherwise I would just say : 
For 2 years investment your interest rate is high
For 3 months investment your interest rate is considerably lower.

This post has been linked to from another place on Steem.


  - [Advanced Steem Metrics Report for 7th November 2016](https://steemit.com/steemit/@ontofractal/advanced-steem-metrics-report-for-7th-november-2016) by @ontofractal




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