RE: A Huge Market Crash Flag Has Been Raised by bulleth

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Viewing a response to: @kyriacos/a-huge-market-crash-flag-has-been-raised

· @bulleth · (edited)
$3.95
Amazing how readily this kind of tripe is swallowed on Steem. 

Soros is famous for shorting things ... if the market was about to crash and he knew about it,  he wouldn't be giving away his money to avoid the crash ... he would be shorting it.

Do you know what the other thing he his famous for is? Announcing his positions. 

If he saw a crash coming, not only would he be short - he'd be letting everyone know he was short. Why does he announce his positions? Because he is a big swinging dick and other investors follow him, pushing the market where he wants it to go. He's written entire books on this phenomena.

I am left thinking you know very little about the topic you are attempting to discuss :)
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@kyriacos · (edited)
1. Like a friend told me. He is 87 years old. This is much more safe to do. Nobody can short the market consistently and all the time. He got lucky a few times, sure but we are entering uncharted territory with the current market bull run.

2. Also, in the markets, the only way to make gains is to be inconsistent. If you are famous for shorting then people will be expecting shorting. You make sure people fall for it after you have done it a few times and wrote books about it.

3. So really, all your position is saying is "Do the thing he is a famous for and shills in his book".  This is your "ultimate knowledge"?

That's like getting prepared to get slaughtered. Knowing that Soros is 'famous for shorting' is level 101. Everybody knows this. Your kind of logic is rather the popular one. Not mine
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@bulleth · (edited)
> Like a friend told me. He is 87 years old. 

You hit the nail on the head there: that is exactly why he is making larger donations to his charity.

> Nobody can short the market consistently and all the time. He got lucky a few times, sure but we are entering uncharted territory with the current market bull run.

You seem to have completely missed the point of my original response. Look up "big swinging dick". Soros doesn't "get lucky", he enters positions large enough to move markets and tells the world so they reinforce the trends he starts. 

I do agree we are in uncharted territory with the bull run, QE and record levels of private debt though.



> Also, in the markets, the only way to make gains is to be inconsistent. 

 Are you being serious right now? Pretty sure 99% of traders will tell you consistency determines long term profitability, not inconsistency. @Scaredycatguide @forexbrokr 

> If you are famous for shorting then people will be expecting shorting. You make sure people fall for it after you have done it a few times and wrote books about it.

See my point above, Soros doesn't need to fool people. He enters large, market moving positions and people follow him, creating a self-reinforcing prediction.

> So really, all your position is saying is "Do the thing he is a famous for and shills in his book". This is your "ultimate knowledge"?

I never claimed to have ultimate knowledge. Though yeah, I am a professional markets writer with 6 years trading experience. I've also actually read one of the guy's books and ridden some of his trades to great success. So yeah I'd say say those factors qualify me to discuss the topic with a little authority.
> Your kind of logic is rather the popular one. Not mine

You are such a rebel. You are so different and unique. Did you get your anarchy badge from a Good Charlotte concert?

> That's like getting prepared to get slaughtered. Knowing that Soros is 'famous for shorting' is level 101. Everybody knows this. 

Alright so do you want to stake something on this? Friendly little wager. I'm happy to stake a couple hundred SBD on the result, or we could both simultaneously enter into positions on the SPX - I'll go long, you go short. I'll leave the time frame up to you, as I think you are at a slight handicap. If SPX is higher at the end of x months I win, if it is lower you win. 

This is very easy, I'm not requiring an actual crash like you are predicting, just for SPX to be lower than it is today. My only condition is the time frame shouldn't be more than 12 months, as you have specifically predicted an impending crash signalled by this donation. Look forward to hearing from you.
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@kyriacos · (edited)
>Are you being serious right now? Pretty sure 99% of traders will tell you consistency determines long term profitability, not inconsistency. @Scaredycatguide @forexbrokr

pretty sure 99% of traders lose money mate. exactly my point. 

>See my point above, Soros doesn't need to fool people. He enters large, market moving positions and people follow him, creating a self-reinforcing prediction.

whales are whales because people believe they are consistent. humans are beings of habits. this is their biggest vulnerability. something that you fail to understand. 

>I never claimed to have ultimate knowledge. Though yeah, I am a professional markets writer with 6 years trading experience. I've also actually read one of the guy's books and ridden some of his trades to great success. So yeah I'd say say those factors qualify me to discuss the topic with a little authority.

This tells me nothing. I am much older than you and have seen this mantra countless times. meaning absolutely nothing. A monkey can become a trader in a month. not something that anyone should be proud of. 

>You are such a rebel. You are so different and unique. Did you get your anarchy badge from a Good Charlotte concert?

I managed to retire 3 years ago. after being in the market for 4. do the math. anarchist? sure. but more of an opportunist. I am also an anthropologist and i can spot 101 rookie assumptions about human nature..especially when it comes to trading where most of them are compulsive gamblers that got a boner from popular hollywood movies trying to live the dream. (mainly americans suffer from this delusion.)

>Alright so do you want to stake something on this? Friendly little wager. I'm happy to stake a couple hundred SBD on the result, or we could both simultaneously enter into positions on the SPX - I'll go long, you go short. I'll leave the time frame up to you, as I think you are at a slight handicap. If SPX is higher at the end of x months I win, if it is lower you win.

>This is very easy, I'm not requiring an actual crash like you are predicting, just for SPX to be lower than it is today. My only condition is the time frame shouldn't be more than 12 months, as you have specifically predicted an impending crash signalled by this donation. Look forward to hearing from you.

I don't need to wager anything. I could be wrong about this one and you could be right but that would not indicate whether you are always right or that I am always wrong. Again, this kind of mentality is of the rookie, the one I see on twitter between gamblers waving dicks with each other. 

The point here is that charities are the red pill for those who want to secure value in turbulent times. Everyone is doing it and rather aggressively since the panama papers debacle. 

There are also a few other indicators that reinforce a major correction if you follow CNBC and/or bloomberg.
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@kyriacos ·
Well, here it goes my young padawan 

https://steemitimages.com/DQmNhLBLmUuft8F1Jt4XirqMRxbybFXMvTARQTLFnKmtSXA/Screen%20Shot%202017-10-22%20at%2011.45.28%20PM.png

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-19/shock-of-volatility-wakens-stock-traders-from-two-month-slumber
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@kyriacos ·
$0.03
More evidence

![Screen Shot 2017-10-20 at 9.47.31 AM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcRVXoKVuavGeNkdriTX84XP8qgYLvdJo9fTGo6NpWRuU/Screen%20Shot%202017-10-20%20at%209.47.31%20AM.png)

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/19/chinas-central-bank-just-warned-of-a-sudden-collapse-in-asset-prices.html?__source=Facebook
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vote details (1)
@pvr ·
$0.10
Yes his theory of "reflexivity" posits that agents create market realities and markets veer between booms and busts. Signaling his short and then having the herding effect take hold would make the crash a self-fulfilling phenomenon as you correctly point out.
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@bulleth ·
Quite possibly the best first post ever :)
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