Markets seem to diverge with US more up than the rest of the world. I am trading US industrials in the belief of a trade deal emerging. Adding to homebuilders and continuing short in US banks and the Europe (rates and currency). 

![Apr10Trades.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXWfGqgWtDoHhK4r9Xd1u6h2twxHjunyWUYRLTJBn5id9/Apr10Trades.png)
 
<h3>Portfolio News</h3>

**Market Rally** 

US markets continue to move ahead as Federal Reserve minutes confirm the spoken dovish words. 

![Apr10US.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUodtuHxwLSW2iP8x4PdKYe1NfreZiV1MMTmEkUWzaXsG/Apr10US.JPG)

Oil price holds onto the gains. The disruption in supply situations is driving demand for oil tankers - all my oil shipping stocks move. Brexit news is EU agrees to an expansion to October. This is really the time for  Britain to make up their minds and make a decision. No more can kicking is possible. European Central Bank holds interest rates and Draghi talks things down some more. 

**Brazil**  

Brazilian Government agrees to pay state owned oil company $9 billion to resolve a dispute about offshore oil reserves access.

![Apr10PBR.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbR8s6e9kJdrqGEeb6ncNirguwZByVQxDyrtsUTXKjs67/Apr10PBR.JPG)

This is good news for my holdings in Petrobras (PBR). It is also good news for Brazilian economy as it opens up the oil fields for wider auction opportunity (in October) to foreign explorers who have more capital than Petrobras. The field research indicates that this field is more expansive than Mexico or Norway. I am invested in Van Eck Vectors Brazil Small Caps ETF (BRF). 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-pay-petrobras-9-billion-004859767.html

<h3>Bought</h3>

**Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund** (XLI): US Industrials. CNBC Options Action team talked about the way industrial sector has lagged S&P 500 essentially because of the dragged out US-China trade discussions and Boeing. The view is that once the trade deal is agreed industrials will move ahead again AND Boeing is going to solve their problems with the 737 Max 8. I am fully exposed to the Boeing story - now to add a bit more to the China story with a short term view. 

![Apr10XLISetup.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeUNpEKRrPM5ha5PyfT8yp3GPCGSJMv6EQmWUQsAjAeVW/Apr10XLISetup.JPG)

Start with the charts, I wanted to start in-the-money (say 75 - blue arrow) and look for price to make it back to pre-selloff highs (say 80 - top red ray) and look for entry below recent lows (say 72 - lower red ray).  I then went to the options chains to find a 75/80 call spread which I could fund with a sold 72 put. I landed up at January 2021 75/80 call spread for net premium of $2.47 offering maximum profit on its own of 103% and funded it with January 2020 72 put option for $2.975 giving a net negative $0.505 premium (i.e., I get paid to make the trade). This structure gives me 5.5% price protection and an entry point of $71.50. 

The options chains tells me I was alone on this particular trade for the day. There were only 3 put contracts traded. 

![Apr10XLIOpt.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfTzN9vvSHE4BWFNd6rnpD6LHoi9n953ppqRh7KC5ZorH/Apr10XLIOpt.JPG)

Why pick XLI? Implied volatility is lower than individual stocks like Caterpillar (CAT) or Deere (DE) which are geared to China. The top 15 stocks alone show around 27% of the ETF holdings are geared to China (including Boeing)

**SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF** (XHB): US Homebuilders. After a down day Tuesday, averaged down entry price on June 2019 strike 41 call options. Underlying price closed 0.98% higher at $40.20 on Wednesday. 

<h3>Sold</h3>

**Frontline Ltd.** (FRO): Oil Shipping. See below. 

<h3>Shorts</h3>

**Citigroup Inc** (C): US Bank. With one week to expiry I decided to setup a new short trade on Citigroup to take expiry past earnings. I closed out bought leg of April 60/55 bear put spread for net 67% loss. I will leave the sold 55 put to run to expiry. This could well have been an impatient exit as earnings are due on April 15 - and expiry is April 19. The chart shows the bought put 60 just closed and the sold put 55 still standing. Price has not gone below 60 at all which explains why I wanted to grab back some premium. 

![Apr10C.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQMTYP2MRFoXaiHGqeLMyV2Z9nutUD4SkeJm4q6ucmHZq/Apr10C.JPG)

With closing price of $65.52, I replaced with a May expiry 65/62.5 bear put spread for net premium of $0.98 which offers maximum profit potential of 155%. If this is achieved, the whole sequence of trades ends up 9% profitable. Back to the chart with the new trades shown in pink rays - price has been in this range for 4 months now - it just has to keep doing that. 

**Euribor 3 Month Interest Rate Futures** (IZ): Europe Interest Rates. I caught the tail end of Mario Draghi speech. Each time he talks he scares the markets even more - nothing has changed in the data in a week YET Euribor rates spike down another 5 basis points instantly. I added another short contract - my thinking is the previous high will hold. 

![Apr10Euribor.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP1vNMk4KqoL2SF7YnnA8TzvZvTMPxYKRys6qaK36FkaT/Apr10Euribor.jpg)

I do need Bitcoin prices to stay up as this is holding the margin steady in my IG Markets account. 

<h3>Income Trades</h3>

**Frontline Ltd.** (FRO): Oil Shipping. Price moved strongly and option pricing and underlying pricing was moving in line. I bought back April expiring strike 7 call options for net $0.60 loss (vs $0.25 premium). 

My thinking is that price will continue to move hard and I am better off grabbing that price momentum. I did sell half of my stock holding for net 9% blended profit since March 2017/August 2018. Sale price differential achieved was higher than the cost of the buy back - I sold at $7.88 and price closed at $8 = 23% move in 3 weeks. 


<h3>Cryptocurency</h3>

**Bitcoin** (BTCUSD): Price range for the day was $305 (5.9% of the low). The inside bar was a good indicator of another push higher bringing the next resistance level at $5547 into reach. A big move day like that is invariably followed by a quiet day = inside bar maybe coming. 

![Apr10BTC.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZXCXAHL24RggdmU1q2gb2TzNkutzvnb2MuoZumvtK1mJ/Apr10BTC.JPG)

**Ethereum** (ETHUSD): Price range for the day was $15 (8.8% of the low). Price action quite different here with an engulfing bar straddling and closing on the resistance level of $177.80. Next few hours are key - break the high and price will reach out to test $200. Break the low and price will drop back to test $160. 

![Apr10ETH.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmS6hbwQH6M4V71fjN9HG1WstANTJYqPNGaAS4FCU2tmfk/Apr10ETH.JPG)

<h3>CryptoBots</h3> 

**Profit Trailer Bot** One closed trade (1.69% profit) bringing the position on the account to 7.98% profit (was 7.95%) (not accounting for open trades).

![Apr10PTWins.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYxrs5uvDzMymmaEf6XyfbXHzCdrmY2LNsxwCLsNK6esL/Apr10PTWins.JPG)

**New Trading Bot** Trading out using Crypto Prophecy. One trade opened and closed on ENJ (1.82% profit)

![Apr10ENJ.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmf2oXdsHd2VAWv42mSJgge4WnHCZPj8w1aVEjTkhG9fJr/Apr10ENJ.JPG)

<h3>Currency Trades</h3>

**Australian Dollar** (EURAUD): I wrote yesterday

<blockquote>The big question is should one go again and look for a break below the 1.58 level? </blockquote>

That level has been well and truly tested since February. There are enough factors for the Australian Dollar to rise in the short term - rising oil prices and rising iron ore prices. There is talk of iron ore going over $100 a metric tonne because of Vale supply problems. I cannot see a lot of reasons for the Euro to strengthen 
apart from any general US Dollar weakness. For sure Mario Draghi will drag his heels on rates. So I went out and bought another 3 month put option at 1.58 strike. Mario Draghi did oblige and for now the trade looks heroic. Let's look at the chart which shows the bought put (1.58) and 100% profit as red rays with the expiry date the dotted green line on the right margin

![Apr10EURAUDTrade.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXDpmmnoFjbxvjurLDCcLWTadJ64sGDkoTLPPY1H9XZvF/Apr10EURAUDTrade.JPG)

I have moved the price arrow scenario along to line up with the current down move. Continue with that and the trade will reach maybe 80% profit quite soon but will need a little more to get to 100%. Of course, trade war with US will help the Euro weakness side of the trade. 

**Outsourced MAM account** Actions to Wealth closed out 5 trades on AUDNZD, EURUSD, USDJPY for 0.56% profits for the day. One trade open on USDJPY (0.1% positive). 

Cautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas

Images: I own the rights to use and edit the Buy Sell image. News headlines come from Google Search and Yahoo Finance. All other images are created using my various trading and charting platforms. They are all my own work

Tickers: I monitor my portfolios using Yahoo Finance. The ticker symbols used are Yahoo Finance tickers

Charts: http://mymark.mx/TradingView - this is a free charting package. I have a Pro subscription to get access to real time forex prices

Crypto Prophecy provides a useful tool to identify oversold and overbought coins - https://mymark.mx/CryptoProphecy

Trading: Binance offers a wide range of coins to trade, tight spreads and low fees if you use BNB to pay https://mymark.mx/Binance

Tracking: Keeping track of your crypto trades is a whole lot easier with CoinTracking.info. Get 10% off all your account upgrades https://mymark.mx/CoinTracking


April 10, 2019

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