币价上涨和天气有关吗? by coldhair

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· @coldhair · (edited)
$22.13
币价上涨和天气有关吗?
![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYi63qYkc2BKCfi1qTxaGM5EqhwXHcGMWDwoBhfZLUDVB/image.png)

在币问平台,有网友问:

> 币价上涨和天气有关吗?

以下是我的分析,仅供娱乐哈

---

有关系,加密货币也有**热涨冷缩**的特性,所以,最近天气转暖,币价也上涨了!

哈哈,上面只是开个玩笑啦。

天气与币价肯定有关系了,币价是多种因素构成的,天气影响社会的生产活动、人群流动等,而且天气还影响人的心理活动,这些都是影响币价的重要因素。

所以,**天气肯定与币价有一定的关系**。

但是,要说**这天气对币价的影响有多大?其中有没有规律?能不能搞出个数学模型?那就是另外一回事了。**

刚才说了,币价的涨跌是受多种因素影响的,很难从单一因素中找出规律,或者说单一因素很难决定币价的涨跌,例如,有时候你觉得是明显利好的消息来了,币价偏偏就跌了。

**天气对币价的影响并不是决定性因素,假如真有这么一个数学模型,天气这个变量对币价的影响系数也会很小,至于小到什么程度,也不好估计。**

想从天气对币价的影响中找到规律更是特别难,到底是温度升高,币价是涨呢,还是跌呢?温度在哪个范围,币价会升高呢?

再者说,天气只是众多影响因素中的一个,况且,天气本身的变量就特别多,诸如温度、气压、气湿、日照强度、风向、风速,雷电雨雪……等等,天气本身也很难准确预测,虽然有很多的预测模型,但没有一个模型是精确的。

退一步讲,即便能准确预测天气,那世界各地的天气也不一样,有些地区号称“一天有四季,十里不同天”,考虑到这些,那变化多了,也几乎没办法找到规律。

所以,想研究天气与币价的关系,不太靠谱。

当然,分析这个问题是想启示一个事实,**简单的单一因素很难独立影响市场**。

不要因为一些微不足道的小事影响你投资的决策,例如,有些人通过研究什么星座运势、周易八卦来预测股价、币价,甚至有人能把自己穿的衣服跟币价联系起来,“我今天穿了绿衣服,难怪又跌了。” 仔细想想,其实很可笑。

短期的币价涨跌很难准确预测的,但长期的币价可以更大概率上去预测,我们可以通过分析项目本身,技术、团队、市场等因素也分析一个币的长期走势,虽然无法100%准确预测,但胜算的概率总比研究天气要大一些。
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@tumutanzi · (edited)
$2.85
脑洞大开啊,医生这真是能扯。
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@coldhair ·
哈哈,神马都是浮云
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@jinluan ·
$0.39
反正我知道币价跟心情有关,币价上涨就是晴天,下跌就是阴天,哈哈
👍  
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@intmilanmilano ·
哈哈,好像蛮有道理的...
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@coldhair ·
这是真理哈
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@wilhb81 ·
$0.39
呵呵,这个分析与理解不错啊~ 

PS: 今天这里艳阳高照 = 表示比特币会涨?!
👍  
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@coldhair ·
今天我忘了穿红色内裤了,难怪币价没涨
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@wilhb81 ·
快去补穿,明天就暴涨 XD
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@cnbuddy ·
你好cn区点赞机器人 @cnbuddy 这厢有礼了。假如我的留言打扰到你,请回复“取消”。
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@bestmz ·
$0.39
快到夏天了,马上就要热涨了。
👍  
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@coldhair ·
买了币,把钱包加加热~
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@sweet-jenny8 ·
$0.39
下雨天币市就跌了,看来真是有关系  :)
👍  
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@coldhair ·
幸好没有下雪~
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@lemooljiang ·
$3.50
各种币生病了,医生给治治!
👍  , ,
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@coldhair ·
没有药啊
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@nostalgic1212 ·
$0.40
文章看到中段的时候我还一直觉得挺有道理的,原来是“戏说”,医生这波脑洞开的颇大呀(´▽`)
👍  
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@coldhair ·
哈哈,谢谢参与娱乐~
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@coldhair ·
$1.04
最近还真看到了,有人条条有道的分析天气和股票的关系。要是看天气能炒股,赚了钱,那也真是够奇葩了。
👍  
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vote details (1)
@coldhair ·
$1.02
这个世界上,有太多的事情,有太多的人,有太多人的太多行为,让人是无法理解,无法明白,无法透彻的
👍  
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@abhish16 ·
cool
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cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length4
author_reputation0
root_title币价上涨和天气有关吗?
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000