Expected Value of Steem Monsters Daily Quests [2] by cryptoeater

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· @cryptoeater ·
$2.08
Expected Value of Steem Monsters Daily Quests [2]
Hey guys! Welcome to another update on the expected value of rewards cards! 

# How it Was Calculated
Before calculating, I had to use the assumption that **you can sell your card at the lowest price per BCX.** The drop rates used were from @yabapmatt so we know that it's accurate. 
![image.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmQyxfwgaa9qk1tcDBxNio6GmcwDybgy6ZEuVcwPTUpJPx)


Firstly, I calculated the average cost of cards per rarity, then I multiplied it by the chance of it being opened. I added these up for all the rarities and then we have the expected value of each reward card earned. After that, I just had to simply multiply that value by how many cards you earn from each rank! 

# Today's Data 
The data is sorted in rarity, from lowest to highest. Then the average value of each rarity is calculated, which is multiplied by its chance to drop. This is all then added together to form the expected value of each reward card. 
![image.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmW6rYCKgs7asynRrr2SBd59ACLpftH3xujeKVE4uiSDpX)


# Today's Average Value: $0.1051

# Expected Value of Each Rank
* Note: this is assuming you stay at the same rank for the whole season, each season has 14 days and you complete all daily quests in the 14 days. Therefore, this estimate is quite high and realistically you aren't going to earn this much. 
![image.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmVfiLEGrgwoBa1kynnwGzRN1QF1dsJg2fKsBerWXUY9Ns)

# Price History
* 04/02: $0.0941
* 07/02: $0.1051
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vote details (93)
@masterthematrix ·
Even though the estimates are not realistic to reach, it is still impressive to see how much value players gain, when they just go thru the daily quests and stay in their according monster level league.
I would say to cut down the numbers by 1/3 to get a more realistic value. 
Actually I think the percentage gets higher with the league. If you start low its very easy to get into mid range because a lot of players are ahead of you. But if you play mid range from beginning and than to the higher leagues it takes much longer and there are less players above you. So the longer it takes to get to your max league the more you loose out on potential gains. 
Thanks for the great charts!
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