Looking Like a Range by cryptographic

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· @cryptographic · (edited)
$77.73
Looking Like a Range
How could I start 2018 off any other way? Other than by posting a Bitcoin chart? 😂

## It looks like we've got a nicely defined range in place . . . 

. . . where anything can happen, but more often than not they are places where whipsaws frequently occur and traders get their accounts slowly eaten away . . . unless they're very disciplined and buy the bottom of the range (with close stops) and sell the top. These kinds of things are also quite often home to false breakouts as chasers are lured in and trapped. The old saying is that markets trend higher 25% of the time, trend lower 25% of the time, and trade sideways the rest. Trading ranges present good opportunities to take a break, but, in this case, it may well spell __*trend time*__ in select Alts like STEEM, BTS, SYS, ADA, et al. that could very well moon while BTC "consolidates". 

## Anyhow, back to the range: 

Clear upper and lower boundaries are confirmed by the upper and lower Bollinger Bands with the rising 55 day moving average bringing up the rear. Price is right in the middle, right at the mid-band. The big daily Fib. long is opposed by a now daily short (not shown on the chart). The MACD is trying to turn up at the zero line and the Stoch Momentum is doing the same in an attempt to get out of oversold. We've got 3 hours till EOD, and if we can hold current levels, we'll be able to take the word "trying" out of the previous sentence. 

We'll have to wait and see, but right now I'm thinking that it might be a good January (**for you know who**), or at least not a bad one. Keep your fingers crossed!

![BTC02012018.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYtR9C1Ln1o1HjSUnrhZU1P9JYDgcZszhAnfCBKFXNDoY/BTC02012018.jpg)

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@cryptographic
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vote details (66)
@faissalchahid · (edited)
❀logical analysis
This is a good year for digital and virtual currencies. I think most currencies will see a rebound in price this year
bitcoin will still play between 22K
 and 6K
What do you think you are in this bro. :D
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vote details (2)
@lifebyadam ·
$6.56
I feel like we have built good support in this range and hopefully we will be making another climb to the 20k ranges very soon, surely by the end of the month. We had to drop some at the end of 2017 so that we could start out 2018 with a steady increase. That's my thoughts any ways. Great post, thank you!
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@cryptographic ·
$15.01
I never like to create too many prior expectations when it comes to talking about future possibilities, and that's why I usually limit myself to commenting the highest probabity scenarios. Nonetheless, anything can happen. All things considered though, and this includes the fundamentals and order flow as we know it - there is still very important demand for crypto coming from fiat - I think the most probable short to intermediate term scenario for BTC is choppy trading in a range, and most likely the range drawn on the chart. I'm thinking of months, but it could be weeks before a possible breakdown, which I'd give about a 30% chance at this point. If the lows hold, then it will be an eventual battle between bulls and bears to get back to the top of the range, the necessary requirement for a breakout to new highs. 20k is a long ways off in my view, and I think "good support" still needs a lot better foundation too. The longer we spend moving sideways, the more nervous the long them HODLers will get, causing more sell side pressure. As I said in the original post, I'd be looking at alternatives to the well known and now famous that had huge gains in 2017. Again, things like STEEM, BTS, SYS, ADA, GRS, NLG, DBG that are still very much under the radar could be the next big surprises that become household names. That's just my opinion though.
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vote details (3)
@farmingbot ·
#bitcoin
 why should bitcoin, many other virtual currencies
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@rik432 · (edited)
I feel like we have fabricated great help in this range and ideally we will make another move to the 20k territories soon, most likely before the month's over. We needed to drop some toward the finish of 2017 so we could begin 2018 with an enduring increment.
Upvoted
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vote details (3)
@tony10 ·
$0.35
I am all for a good January :  ) 
After steems wild moves today bitcoin being range bound seems like a nice bit of breathing space
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vote details (1)
@seniorpower ·
Do not buy any currency now. A strong correction for most of the currencies may be followed if the uptrend continues to rise, according to the analysis.
The level of 16k and 17k has become very close .. If the price of Bettkin to the highest price of this day $ 15,325 and the breakthrough will not stop the price of protein only at the barrier 17k and then wait for some minor corrections to continue the price of about 20k and maybe 25k
This is what you think you are, leader
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@mejustandrew · (edited)
I just lost some of my money today trading :)) it seems that I am not wise enough yet, but by the end of the day I started to recover a few. I hope that after reading this I will be able to take some better decisions, or at least stop taking the bad ones :))
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@ratul8940 ·
I stick lost some of my cash today exchanging :)) it appears that I am not sufficiently insightful yet, but rather before the day's over I began to recuperate a couple. I trust that in the wake of perusing this I will have the capacity to take some better choices, or possibly quit taking the terrible ones
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vote details (2)
@kartiksingh ·
Yeah ...Bitcoin  back to the range 2018  ... it may be a good luck sign ...i want to ask you ..sir do you think that it is affect of peter thiel bet because i read that in an article ..
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@dirkboy41 · (edited)
$14.06
@ cryptographic Out of the 4horseman (ADA BTS SYS STEEM) do you have any favorites? 

I'm debating re balancing my portfolio, but keep wavering between my decision. Plus, I'm still looking to allocate some long term capital...

Decisions, decisions...

Also, what did you mean by, "We'll have to wait and see, but right now I'm thinking that it might be a good January (for you know who), or at least not a bad one." Didn't catch this one...
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vote details (2)
@cryptographic ·
$14.69
Believe it or not, my personal portfolio, with 2 ADA rebalancings, is still beating the "locked" model portfolio, in spite of ADA's huge run-up enormously benefitting the model portfolio!

One of the big reasons for that is that a good chunk of the ADA rebalancings went into STEEM in the 1 dollar range. Even with ADA mooning again, STEEM is outperforming. (See my [Buy Low, Sell High](https://steemit.com/investing/@cryptographic/buy-low-sell-high) post for more background on my feelings about good portfolio management. )

We always have to wait and see - it's ultimately always a probability play. A sideways month for BTC with the still lesser known but very good crypto alternatives playing catch up would be a good January, if you're positioned for that. 

The 4 horsemen? It's hard to pick a favorite, but perhaps BTS is best positioned to "go viral" in the coming weeks and months, IMO.
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@dirkboy41 ·
$6.64
Thanks for the insight and advice! AND CONGRATS ON THE ONE MILLION+ SIR!!! I'm definitely in awe of your trading abilities and will be highlighting your blog in my next post.
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@serkagan ·
$1.24
I agree with you, January looks much promising and on the graphical parameters, so most likely it will be. Bitcoin has risen more than 15% today, and most likely, according to my forecasts, in the summer of 2018 it will take the bar of 20,000 dollars, but you're right, we'll cross your fingers and wait! Thank you @cryptographic
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@taskmaster4450 ·
$6.65
Thanks for the analysis @cryptographic.

I see a double-bottom forming on a pullback from a longer upward trend.  I think we see a shot upward...passing the doji that formed the middle of the W is important.

After that, a test of the ATH is always an area of potential resistance...and the full verification of the W pattern being a trend reversal.

For me, I have difficulty calling a channel with one top as a reference point.  Personally, I like to see two or three attempts before drawing channel lines.  A second failure at the 19K+ mark would solidify that for me.

At this point, I think it blows past it if it gets there...I think the middle of the W resistance is the key one...A run up there with a pullback would really mess with the other indicators you posted which are lining up nicely for a bullish run.

That is what is awesome about charts, we can look at the same thing and see different things.

By the way, for full disclosure to all reading, I have some BTC but I am a HODL not a trader....

HODL of STEEM and BTS also.  &#128513;
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@cryptographic ·
$14.08
The middle of the double bottom, the neckline, is huge, no doubt about it. That's the 61.8% failure level of the daily halfway back short from highs that was originally sold into. Now the 50% is being respected on this rally off the second of the possible double bottom. Volume is lackluster at best on the buy side, and the 20 DMA, right there at the 50% is still holding strong. I'm not too awfully encouraged about strong upside from here just now, but, as I always say, anything is possible.
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@taskmaster4450 ·
$6.31
I dont know if you saw this my friend....it is an @stan announcement about our favorite tokens outside STEEM.....

By the way, he keeps a 1,000 times multiple on monies using BTS...over the next couple years....

This is a HODL if there ever was one.

https://steemit.com/bitshares/@bluerocktalk/breaking-news-evander-holyfield-and-bitshares
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vote details (1)
@cryptographic ·
$15.96
This is where I think something really big is going to happen in the near future, and also where I've decided to make an exception to my normal portfolio management - I'm overweight BTS, and I won't be rebalancing until a substantially higher than normal level. I could get hurt (but still only percentage wise), but I think it's a huge opportunity that's being telegraphed to us and we'd be very stupid not to take advantage. That having been said, markets often do the most unexpected things and what we think is great sometimes gets crushed. This is probably the closest I get to actual "trading"!
πŸ‘  , ,
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vote details (3)
@taskmaster4450 ·
$6.12
@stan keeps offering up teasers.  The announcement with Holyfield is interesting since he talks about $1M into $1B....Now maybe they have BTS they can offer him at 5 cents for the $1M...I dont know.

But a 1,000 X is pretty good from that level.

Perhaps there is a bit of marketer in @stan but I dont think he would be touting this stuff if he didnt have a whale of an announcement in his back pocket.
πŸ‘  
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@goldcoin ·
$1.21
Yes  sir .i agree with you. say it can happen.We must understand this  trade.this  is very valuable information and  STEEM, BTS, SYS, ADA, crypto Great graphic chart.
Thanks @cryptographic
Have a great day
πŸ‘  
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@rahul72 ·
very very nice you are great . I like your post and following.Upvoted and resteemed your post.sir.
πŸ‘Ž  
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@blazing ·
$4.91
Steem is going crazy never expected that to happen this early :D
πŸ‘  
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@cryptographic ·
$5.95
Yeah, I'm a bit surprised too. Might we see all of the year's gains in the first quarter? Or the first month?
πŸ‘  ,
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@blazing ·
wow how cool that would be but the correction phase would be the tough one this time to survive
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@cityslicker ·
looks like the resistance is broken and could go high
πŸ‘  
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@theguruasia ·
$6.33
@cryptographic,
I used Bollinger Bands in Binary Option and made a huge success there! Then I shifted to crypto, but unfortunately I missed my skills of bollinger bands due to high fluctuation! You are not only using BB, you have MACD and STOCH! MA, EMA and RSI with them you can do whatever! I used them few years back and I don't why I forgot those valuable indicators! Thanks for reminding me how we can use them back! I will try, but I have another problem! In bittrex I don't know how to use those indicators very effectively! This is the main reason I have lost them and I didn't apply them to my crypto trading!
Without those indicators trading is really impossible! Like a blind man is trying to cross a highway :D So, what you shared today is highly valuable for any kind of trader on any kind of platform! Thank you very much and really appreciate your effort!

Cheers~
πŸ‘  ,
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@cryptographic · (edited)
$12.49
I use everything available that I find useful. That being said, there is no holy grail. Nevertheless, each indicator gives you something, more often than not simply historical information, but sometimes, when there's correlating signals, they can give you an edge projecting into the future, especially when combined with intermediate to long term fundamentals and basic risk management, which is the foundation upon which I build everything. With regards to settings and actual usage, I recommend going with the standard default settings - they're there for a reason, and the reason is that those default settings are usually what their inventors used most and what most people still look at.

A great place to learn more about TA is on StockCharts. It's comprehensive, accurate and run by trustworthy pros who are there to teach, not con. &#128526;
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school
πŸ‘  ,
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@theguruasia ·
@cryptographic,
Thank you for this information friend I will check this out! Great advise you provided me again!

Cheers~
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@cranium ·
$2.48
**Thank you for your hard work. January has already exceeded my expectations, today steem was trading at $ 7.4. And this, only the beginning. Good luck.**
>Бпасибо Π·Π° Ρ‚ΠΎ, Ρ‡Ρ‚ΠΎ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π°Π»ΠΈ ΠΎΠ³Ρ€ΠΎΠΌΠ½ΡƒΡŽ Ρ€Π°Π±ΠΎΡ‚Ρƒ. Π―Π½Π²Π°Ρ€ΡŒ ΡƒΠΆΠ΅ прСвысил ΠΌΠΎΠΈ оТидания, сСгодня steem торговался ΠΏΠΎ 7,4 Π΄ΠΎΠ»Π»Π°Ρ€Π°. А это, Ρ‚ΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠΊΠΎ Π½Π°Ρ‡Π°Π»ΠΎ. Π£Π΄Π°Ρ‡ΠΈ.
πŸ‘  
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@cryptographic ·
$13.12
Let's hope you're right about this being only the beginning! Or at least not the ending!!! &#128516;

Good luck to you too!
πŸ‘  
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@starboye ·
$0.60
i am keeping my fingers crossed lets hope for a great year :)
πŸ‘  
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@steemwija ·
$4.05
@cryptographic - Sir in this year what you predicted became true... You said BTC will drop & you told us it can be drop to $12,500 level if I am not mistaken... It came very near Sir... And all your predictions about STEEM, BTS, ADA, SYS worked well too... Now STEEM looks like a sky rocket... 
Today you shared another very important trading tips to us... Not only 1 indicator, you are using few indicators & you told us how effectively use them while trading Sir... Very useful content Sir... Sharing your knowledge, advising us to do best is really appreciate... Thank you Sir...

+W+
πŸ‘  ,
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@rehan12 ·
$1.20
It sure is that the case about your prediction and theories :) loved to see the movements discussed along with reasons and do sure hope so the BTC rises along with the other alcoins especially Steem ;)
This year is gonna be a great year for Crypro lover we just have to be cautious and patience ;)
πŸ‘  
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@cutiepie ·
not going to be the bad one for sure :)
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@karolynaz ·
$2.39
Last year, when bitcoin dropped during the Holiday season – it was down until February, when completely recovered and started to growing further. This year I think will be the same.
πŸ‘  
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@mywhale ·
$6.00
Hello **@dennisschroeder**,

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/61/80/fe/6180fedc2b02f0f532fbb4a0a057ecb3--stock-trader-stock-options.jpg

Today you discussed about trade by using few indicators that professional traders use than getting signals from weird sources. MACD & STOCH says it's a bull trend & what BB says little unclear for me. Extraordinary good writing & knowledge sharing via your posts, which is very rare in any platform.
I saw people share trading tips & signals, most of their posts are on Trending list of Steemit. But unfortunately they are not revealing their secrets. But you do. This is the different between you & others. You are giving the knowledge & they are giving the signals. Therefore, people need to understand what to choose. For me it's you :) Extraordinary good post with lots of valuable trading advises in this high fluctuation cryto world. 

~**@mywhale**
πŸ‘  ,
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vote details (2)
@cryptographic ·
$6.03
>. . . unfortunately they are not revealing their secrets. But you do. This is the different between you & others.

Absolutely correct, and I appreciate your astutely pointing that out.
πŸ‘  ,
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@mywhale ·
Hello **@cryptographic**,

By hodling Steem Dollars what you are planning to do? Like to hear your strategy about SBD trading.

~**@mywhale**
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@durgaani ·
Yah what you said is reallly correct  sir..your analysis is perfect..in the year of 2018 definatley the crypto will rock the world present steem doller rate is grows very fast and really a wonderfull start in this year in one day it raises up to 7usd from 2.5 usd ..bitcoin value also grows high in few days i hope that this year ending the value of btc will be above  25k usd.... thank you for sharing info with us....@cryptographic
πŸ‘  
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vote details (1)
@zomg ·
$13.28
@cryptographic Unsure how to message you directly, have been following your $10k to 1M thread. You've hit 1M, congratulations! What are your thoughts and feelings about reaching this?
πŸ‘  ,
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@cryptographic ·
$12.91
Unf@lkingbelievable!
πŸ‘  ,
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@zomg ·
I checked again, your "locked" portfolio is now at 1.18M...that's nearly 200k since 12 hours ago!! I've started my own challenge from $50k to 1M without day trading and wanted to ask- At what point do you start re-balancing portfolio? Let's say my XRP was meant to be 20% of portfolio and it goes above this. Do you do it at 25%, 30%, 40% etc?
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@yendry4barazki ·
very meaningful and I highly motivated by this post, thank you
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@pawsdog · (edited)
$6.29
It is very interesting to look at the charts. I'm playing the lesser ranges but eyeing the longer frames. On the 12 we are still below the 7/21 or both below the 77MA, so it is going to provide solid resistance to the upside, on the 1 day, the 7 has crossed beneath the 21 signaling slow death or a sideways ranging action until longer term trend line can catch up. On the 2 we have golden cross which puts short term gains on the table, up to the longer term averages of the 6 hour at which point it will likely be rejected for  the low end of the range. This time is great for trading if you know what you are doing and have discipline. Great to get fucked if you are chasing the dragon by the tail or jumping in and out with FOMO and panic sells. I love markets like this as it is when the traders trade, and those that failed to invest in themselves with knowledge slowly donate their capital to the market.. 

When two men meet, one with experience and one with money. At the end, the one with the experience leaves with the money and the one that had the money leaves with experience. --Warren Buffet
πŸ‘  
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@cryptographic ·
$13.46
That's a great Buffet quote. Oh how true it is!

As for your TA, I think I have to agree across the board. I'm very inclined to think we're going to see another test of lows, or at least more consolidation at the lower end of the range, before we do anything else.

I'll be watching closely using the techniques developed by Richard Wyckoff as described by Jim Forte:
https://es.scribd.com/document/28001506/Anatomy-of-a-Trading-Range-by-Jim
πŸ‘  ,
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@pawsdog · (edited)
$6.22
Well then great minds think a like, I believe we could see BTC move in a more normal fashion wants it does decide to go up. Instead of climbing like there is no tomorrow it may pick a longer term trend line at some point and use that to make less volatile moves up.  I'm not sold on a full recovery as of yet, but happy to play the ranges. I think  page 54 of the book you provided sums it up. May see a BTC bump up.. seems to be holding tight to the $14,800 -$15.000 range..
πŸ‘  
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@pawsdog ·
Glad I kept to my rules and did not buy, did pick up the ETH though at 915... BTC 12 hour may go bad again.. sigh... well good time to add to BTC with Alts on Bittrex
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@resteemia ·
http://www.tradeyouredge.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/AlbertEinstein.jpg
if you have no idea how these indicators are functioning you will not get any chance to explain it like you did today. you are not only a trader, you are a philosopher & financial advisor as well. impressive article **@cryptographic**

@resteemia
reteemed & upvoted & commented & followed
πŸ‘  
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@gold84 ·
$5.38
@cryptographic another great analysis indeed! Learning a bit more every day from them. I am still not sure what the MACD is for. Learning more about technical analysis in trading is something I want to do.

Again, I wanted to give you a big shout for all your support in the 11 chapters/posts full steemit guide!

Today I posted a new **Chapter 4 of 11: Understanding How to Keep our Steemit and Steem Cryptocurrency Account Safe** - How to Use the 5 Different Passwords - This is part 4 of the 11 Chapters (Full Guide) to help new people make their way on the platform.

Here is the link to this new Chapter/post:
https://steemit.com/steem/@gold84/chapter-4-of-11-understanding-how-to-keep-our-steemit-and-steem-cryptocurrency-account-safe-how-to-use-the-5-different-passwords

Again, huge thanks to you for inspiring me to continue doing this chapters, and for all your support!

Still! looking forward to hear from you with your additions, knowledge and experience in any of the Chapters!

Regards, @gold84
πŸ‘  , ,
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@cryptographic ·
$13.45
Always glad to be able to help out.

BTW, a great place to start learning more about TA is on StockCharts. It's comprehensive, accurate and run by trustworthy pros who are really there to teach. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school 

Highly recommended!
πŸ‘  ,
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@gold84 ·
Thanks @cryptographic ! Really appreciate it.
Also, thanks for your recommendation about TA.

Regards, @gold84
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@deybala ·
great!  @cryptographic thanks for information
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@sanjib ·
i wait for time ,when back to range.
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@booster ·
<p>This post has received a 0.99 % upvote from @booster thanks to: @cryptographic.</p>
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@levitation ·
<p>This post has received a 13.08 % upvote, thanks to: @cryptographic.</p>
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@buildawhale ·
<p>This post has received a 0.41 % upvote from @buildawhale thanks to: @cryptographic.
Send at least 1 SBD to @buildawhale with a post link in the memo field for a portion of the next vote.</p>

<p>To support our daily curation initiative, please vote on my owner, @themarkymark, as a <a href="https://steemit.com/witness-category/@themarkymark/witness-themarkymark">Steem Witness</a></p>
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@upmyvote ·
<p>This post has received a 2.29 % upvote from @upmyvote thanks to: @cryptographic.
Send at least 1 SBD to @upmyvote with a post link in the memo field to promote a post!
Sorry, we can't upvote comments.</p>

<center>https://i.imgur.com/dNNSypy.png</center>

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@postpromoter ·
re-cryptographic-looking-like-a-range-20180105t112320809z
You got a 1.68% upvote from @postpromoter courtesy of @cryptographic!
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@boomerang ·
This post has received a 5.46 % upvote from @boomerang thanks to: @cryptographic<br><br>@boomerang distributes 100% of the SBD and up to 80% of the Curation Rewards to STEEM POWER Delegators. If you want to bid for votes or want to delegate SP please read <a href="https://steemit.com/steemit/@boomerang/boomerang-a-new-steemit-bid-bot-for-all-steemians-whitepaper">the @boomerang whitepaper</a>.
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@appreciator ·
<p>This post has received gratitude of 0.65 % from @appreciator thanks to: @cryptographic.</p>
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@minnowhelper ·
<p>This post has received a 8.95 % upvote from https://steemitimages.com/DQmcZYv2276nr6zEDDTZY1iLcgaBiNqumAnYtmvxNtr5zrW/minnow_klein.png thanks to: @cryptographic. <br>For more information, <a href="http://www.minnowhelper.com/index.php">click here!!!</a>!<br>
<b>Send minimum 0.010 SBD to bid for votes.</b>
<br>
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ROI Calculator for Investors <a href="http://www.minnowhelper.com/delegatecalc.php">click here!!!</a></p>
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