Opinion Maps and how Tau may help the decision maker by dana-edwards

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· @dana-edwards · (edited)
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Opinion Maps and how Tau may help the decision maker
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<p>This post was inspired by Ohad's answer to my question in the monthly QA which was<a href="https://youtu.be/vnEAIQtoxxc?t=1186"> just released</a>. Some key points he made was:<br>
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1) Tau can help solve the asymmetry between proposing what to vote over and having the right to vote. Traditionally only selected lawmakers can propose new laws. On Tau any among millions or billions can put forth a proposal.<br>
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My thoughts on this first solution above is that market forces may be able to improve the quality of proposals. The benefit of Tau is that it might help us filter so that we only have to spend our very limited attention on proposals compatible with the consequences we want to achieve.<br>
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2) Tau can help map out the consequences of certain decisions. In my opinion this is a big deal because when we are asked to vote in elections we aren't ever presented the questions or the topic in a way where emphasis is put on what the consequences might be if we vote one way or another. In political elections the ideology or the beliefs tend to over rule the actual outcomes of different decisions. We don't for example necessarily get honest facts or honest statistics about whether or not a certain policy is working within the community because it becomes a sort of ideological talking point and a matter of tribal loyalty to support certain voting patterns regardless of the consequences. I saw this for example in the gun control debate where statistics often get completely ignored (how effective is the policy statistically?) in favor of arguments about how the policy worked in some other part of the world or in another culture, or some simply dig their heels in the ground because the US Constitution says so and to do anything else is to threaten the interpretation of what was written. We also see this in the crypto community as well with debates around block size or the security of the Lightning Network which became political arguments, ideological arguments, rather than based on probability, statistics, or identifiable consequences.<br>
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3) Ohad mentions that certain aspects are unsolvable. In this I think he refers to Arrow's impossibility theorem, but he also recognized the attention scarcity/choice fatigue problem of having an unlimited number of random proposals. So in recognizing that some problems can never be truly solved in an optimal way the real issue is can we make the current situation less bad? To make something less bad is an improvement over the standard way of doing things and in this he suggests that it is possible.<br>
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So in thinking about how this could play out for the decision maker in Tau, perhaps the decision maker can make increasingly better decisions when they have access to information about how the other decision makers are thinking. A public decision maker in the current environment who posts their opinions on Twitter or Facebook or even on Steem is often doing it blindly, and has no idea what everyone else is thinking. This problem is solved somewhat with intent casting, which is a solution I thought about years back in some of my own posts where you broadcast your intentions to a network which computes an output based on every participant essentially streaming their intent or opinions. Tau ideally will be able to do something like this so that I don't have to track the opinions of every participant in the network but the network itself will automatically do that.<br>
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If we have an accurate opinion map then perhaps we can now apply some UI power to present this information in a useful way. I might as a decision maker want to know what percentage of my social network has this or that opinion, or a more realtime view of opinions flowing in different directions in a visual way with heat to represent the intensity. I could use this information to inform my own opinion casting so that I can improve where I stand publicly on an issue factoring in where my social network stands on the issue. &nbsp;For example if I desire a specific outcome or consequence then a certain decision &nbsp;has different costs and benefits in relation to the desired or ideal outcome I want to reach from my decision(s), and as more information is available to allow me to weigh every decision then the quality of each decision can go up. <br>
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This doesn't solve all problems because disputes will still happen and it also doesn't explain what to do about the problem of fact checking, but at least if you can know the current trend in the opinion map you can figure out what proposals are of highest value at a certain point in time and what opinions are controversial, high risk, safe, or what opinions a lot of people agree on.<br>
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In my opinion all Tau has to do is offer something better than what we currently have on current platforms. Improvements can and should be made over time as more is learned and as Tau makes certain improvements possible.<br>
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References</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%27s_impossibility_theorem">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%27s_impossibility_theorem</a><br>
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