價值儲存（三） by deanliu

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busy · @deanliu ·
$11.45
價值儲存（三）
昨天說到這裡：[價值儲存（二）](https://steemit.com/cn/@deanliu/6285as)，接著說下去...

![house-3454219_640.jpg](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmVX2NSfPFB3JdcXzMz18393RxyiUjLqahMTE5875VQzdV)
<sub>*pixabay*<sub>

我們說到房地產保持的兩點關鍵：

>『**為彼此都帶來好處**』：想想看一間百貨要在銀座開張，對銀座商圈以及對百貨本身，都會是好事。

>『**加入的決定是成本高的**』：銀座那麼貴，買跟租都是高成本的重大決定，不可能今日搬入，下週就離開的。高成本的進場退場也會篩選出最有能力創造價值的個體加入，來獲取銀座高人流的價值。

第一點，相互的好處。舉個例子，例如住宅區居民與周邊商店的關係，相互需要。這類需要通常都建築在實體相關的需求上：例如餐廳裡的食物，是實體；商店裡的商品，是實體；理頭髮店的店員跟剪刀，是實體。甚至某些資訊類服務，如房屋仲介，很多人也是偏好見面談，也是實體。

這點很簡單，實體才需要地理的接近性。否則，網路電話等就可以解決供給與需求了。

因此，未來，這一點是否成立？這要看這類需求是否能被解構？現在看來，很不幸地(?)，是的。吃飯可以叫外送，越來越多。買貨可以用電商，越來越方便。許多個人服務可以到府，不是問題.... 實體依然是實體，但是透過移動成本降低以及配對成本降低，兩造的地理接近性，越來越被顛覆.... 原先地理上產生的依賴性，變成網路上的依賴性，反而是否能連上網比是否接近更重要了.... 當然，實體還是很強大的，至少在當代，在可見的未來... 不過，空間接近已經不是產生需求的絕對保證了....

第二點，加入一個地理空間的成本是高的。這一點，主要會體現於人的移動成本跟屋的移動成本。人的移動，短距離內不高，跨城市就高不少。屋的移動，通常是指搬家等，換房子成本也很高，是人生重大決定。不過，屋子本身的移動呢？現在想來那是成本高到難以想像而且沒有太大意義，但未來，移動的簡單房屋，卻是越來越成真了...想想露營車的升級版就可以了。看來，未來這一點也沒有保證了，如果發明了人的瞬間移動，那就更誇張了吧？

綜合這兩點，支撐房地產能夠儲存價值的因素，都會慢慢隨著時間與科技變化而被解構掉.... 房地產如果慢慢地，失去其價值儲存工具的角色，那麼，那六成價值，能夠轉向什麼媒介來儲存價值呢？黃金長期看漲？還是....... 

嘿嘿嘿～～～～

本話題暫時結束，想到再繼續說。
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