My Thoughts on the Value of Steem. by hilarski

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· @hilarski ·
$32.36
My Thoughts on the Value of Steem.
<center>http://www.200social.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/steem-value-randy-hilarski-steemit-1.jpg</center>

# The Currency That Makes This Blockchain Social Network Function is Steem. #

Over the last few weeks we have had some major changes on the Steem blockchain. The amount of interest was chopped down to 9.5% and the power down time frame was decreased to 13 weeks. 

[@Exyle](https://steemit.com/@exyle) and I had a frank discussion about this while we were at SteemFest. The idea that the inflation of Steem was dropping so much clouded my mind to what would happen when the power down was also decreased. [@Exyle](https://steemit.com/@exyle) reminded me that there were many folks would want to power down as soon as they were able. Now a few weeks after the hard fork on Dec. 6th we are seeing exactly the scenario we discussed on the boat ride on the canals of Amsterdam. 

<center>http://www.200social.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/steem-price-bittrex.png</center>

## Why Does The Current Price of Steem Keep Me Up at Night? ##

In this game of Crypto Currencies there are always opportunities. I largely missed out on the first Steem rocket to the moon. I was busy building my business and holding onto some positions in Crypto Currencies that are going nowhere. 

This time around I can see the possibilities of the Steem blockchain. Steemit.com was just the beginning. We see the team at [@Busy.org](https://steemit.com/@busy.org) working away as well as the eSteem app by [@good-karma](https://steemit.com/@good-karma). Then on top of all of this the amount of Steem brought to market due to power downs will subside in March-April. This means we could have cheap Steem for a few more months and then the countdown to liftoff begins.

## What Can You Do? ##

I would recommend that you begin writing the best possible content that you can write on the Steemit.com platform. If you have the time write multiple times per day. If you want to catch fish you have to put your nets in the water. Put in the time, effort and reap the benefits.

<center>https://media.giphy.com/media/eYTJFYy6YE3vO/giphy.gif</center>

Personally I will invest some of my Bitcoin profits into Steem. I will buy a little every week until the power downs slow down. Am I worried about the price of Steem dropping even more? Nope! Am I worried that my payouts will go down on Steemit.com? Nope! I am giddy over here, knowing that I may have stumbled across another opportunity of a lifetime. Bitcoin 2.0 for me. It is amazing what opportunities you find when your eyes are open.

<center>https://img1.steemit.com/0x0/http://www.randyhilarski.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Randy-Banner-Steemit.jpg</center>
πŸ‘  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 230 others
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@talha ·
good post
i upvote you upvote me on
https://steemit.com/football/@talha/i-love-to-play-football-match
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@prufarchy ·
One day there will be millions of people on Steemit and we'll miss these auspicious if humble days of cheap steem. But it'll be another new thing to explore, and we know how much Steemians love NEW :) 

It's been and will continue to be a fun ride !
πŸ‘  , , , ,
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@hilarski ·
I am thrilled to be part of it.
πŸ‘  
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@sirlunchthehost ·
Good information! Keep it up.
πŸ‘  
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@good-karma ·
> I am giddy over here, knowing that I may have stumbled across another opportunity of a lifetime.

πŸŽ‰ πŸ‘
You are absolutely right! Thanks for the mention Randy!
πŸ‘  
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@hilarski ·
No problem and thank you for your amazing app!
πŸ‘  
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@kafkanarchy84 ·
Inspiring stuff. Thanks for the post. I hadn't connected the dots myself on the hard fork and the price drop due to increased power downs.
πŸ‘  , ,
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@thejohalfiles · (edited)
Nice post, stay positive and you will be rewarded. I am confident we are all apart of something very special here. We need to all play our role in letting people know of their options in regards to alternatives to Facebook, Reddit, Twitter. Soon when we start hosting our own video/photo content we can be a reliable alternative to services like Instagram,Imgr, Youtube etc...our servers should be as protected as possible and free from censorship or governments. Down the road when the best option presents itself we should move towards decentralization of our servers. But lets take it one step at a time yes? @ned @dantheman what do you guys think in regards to this?
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@hilarski ·
I can't wait for all of these tools to be available. Since I am not a dev I have to wait for the toys to be available.
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@hilarski ·
Tweeted on @RandyHilarski
https://twitter.com/RandyHilarski/status/811618811459858433
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@twitterbot ·
### ![RandyHilarski](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/676838926498185216/UpGDCu-N_normal.jpg) **[Randy Hilarski](https://twitter.com/@RandyHilarski/status/811618811459858433)** tweeted @ 21 Dec 2016 - 17:06 UTC

> My Thoughts on the Value of Steem. @Steemit [#Blockchain](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Blockchain) [#CryptoCurrency](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23CryptoCurrency) [steemit.com/steem/@hilarsk…](https://t.co/1tt85tFVFy) https://t.co/hKexgDPtUZ


###### *Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.*
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@rmach ·
I'm not going anywhere but I needed some dates I could hang on to.
Your analysis pointing March-April seems good.
thanks
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@hilarski ·
Those who are desperate to get some money out will continue to power down. There desperation or dislike of the platform will be to our benefit.
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@giantbear ·
I so agree with this statement.......
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@exyle ·
Great article Randy! We share the exact same sentiment regarding Steem. I'm also a buyer at the moment! I loved talking to you and you wife on that boat! Steemit is great and I'm giddy about it too! These prices are a dream.
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@hilarski ·
That may have been one of the conversations that shape my life. It sure is exciting to watch the price come down. The team must of known this would happen and are prepared to ride out these next few months.
πŸ‘  
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@immarojas ·
Thats the plan Randy..buy steem. What happens with power down after April?
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@hilarski ·
The amount of Steem available to buy should decrease which should mean a nice rise in the value.
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@immarojas ·
Cool! Let it rise then.
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@rdennis ·
I'm comfortable holding Steem, great buy-in right now for real. Soon you'll see it explode in price with exposure. People want something new on social platforms (Steemit), this seems to be it in my opinion. I'll keep buying, and start switching over to Steemit. Lot's of great blogs. You guys have a great Christmas!
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@hilarski ·
I totally agree, people are fed up with the old guard social media platforms. Once folks realize what they can do here the tidal wave of new users will be tremendous.
πŸ‘  
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@craig-grant ·
YES :)
πŸ‘  ,
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@hilarski ·
Merry Christmas Craig!!
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@barrydutton ·
YES!!!  also.  lol
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@lukestokes ·
I was just talking about the price in steemit chat.

This is how I've been thinking about it. Who wants to be the next speculator to buy in at $4 and see it go to $0.13? By the same logic, why buy at $0.13 when you _might_ be able to buy later at $0.01 or lower?

I think this thing has a great future and my first purchase was around $0.28. I bought a lot more at $1.00. I feel more confident about this platform now than I did then. I have a bit of SBD ready to buy more once the price stops going down. The reasons I don't buy now at $0.13 isn't because I don't think there is value, I'm just wanting to be smart about it and get as much value as possible for my purchase. There could be many others in the same boat, just waiting things out. I think it's why people like Charlie Shem are powering down as well. He mentioned he would buy on the lows and sell on the highs. Right now may be a local high if we're heading towards $0.01 prices. Even then, would you buy at $0.01 if there's a chance you could buy later at $0.005? That said, once the downward trend stops, I also think it could shoot up very quickly as those who see the value rush to get back in.

From my perspective, the downward pressure isn't as big as I expected. Not all of the whales are powering down. In a way, the price isn't low enough.

https://i.imgflip.com/1gdccm.jpg
πŸ‘  , ,
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@hilarski ·
This is a good reason to spread out the purchases. As a precious metals buyer I have been doing this for years. Buy a little every week and have piece of mind no matter which way it goes. If we take away the emotions and make it a technical purchase we make better decisions. Thank you for stopping by Luke!!
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@krnel ·
Prediction: Hilarski will be a Steemit titan
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@hilarski ·
I sure hope so, I am definitely putting the effort in.
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@timbo ·
You are 100% on point in this article. I am stoked to see what happens in the market.
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@hilarski ·
Let's hope that it plays out this way. If it does we will all be sitting pretty.
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@rebeccaryan ·
I think Steem is an incredible opportunity and I'm really excited about the potential I see. I would say that Bitcoin shares similar merits between physical gold and silver...Gold like bitcoin is a certain standard for protecting wealth that people are use to but there's way more potential in physical silver and I feel the same about Steem.
πŸ‘  
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@hilarski ·
Same for me, I think Ethereum was the go to back up for Bitcoin over the last year but Steem is rising quick for me.
πŸ‘  ,
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@stephenkendal ·
Great piece as always. Thanks for sharing. Upvoted and shared on [Twitterβœ”](https://twitter.com/StephenPKendal) for my followers to see. Stephen

https://twitter.com/StephenPKendal/status/811637411616792580
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@twitterbot ·
### ![StephenPKendal](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/690216070943215618/NNCtThIk_normal.jpg) **[Stephen P Kendal](https://twitter.com/@StephenPKendal/status/811637411616792580)** tweeted @ 21 Dec 2016 - 18:20 UTC

> My Thoughts on the Value of $Steem..!! @Steemit [steemit.com/steem/@hilarsk…](https://t.co/fRRN7juCiq)


###### *Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.*
πŸ‘  
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@sigmajin ·
>The idea that the inflation of Steem was dropping so much clouded my mind to what would happen when the power down was also decreased. 

One of the things thats important to remember is that inflation of m2 (actual spendable money)  has a far greater effect on the value of money than inflation of m4 (total money supply).

When we decreased powerdown time, we actually increased m2 inflation and decreased m4 inflation, at least in the short term.

In the long term, we are decreasing both.  Because had we continued to hyperinflate non spendable  m4 (sp balances), eventually that would have spilled over into higher m2.  the chart posted by steemit blog shows the worst case scenario for HF16 m2 vs non-HF16 m2.

https://img1.steemit.com/0x0/https://cloud.githubusercontent.com/assets/347290/20433961/d0c5d2ec-ad73-11e6-9a7d-6da2f513fdab.png

The blue line is "liquid steem" as it would have increased with no HF16.  The green line is sort of a worst case scenario for HF16 liquid steem supply (it assumes everyone powers down as fast as they possibly can).  The reality of the liquid supply after HF16 is a line the same shape as the green line, but shifted downward somewhat.

The pount where the blue and green lines converge is the worst cast scenario for when HF 16 liquid money supply will be less than it would have been had we stayed with HF15.

It looks like about 18 months on the chart, but thats a worst case.. obviously as the green line shifts down, convergence comes earlier.
πŸ‘  , , ,
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vote details (4)
@hilarski ·
This chart takes into consideration the new 13 week power down? Very interesting!
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@araki ·
https://i.imgsafe.org/ada7ae4bcf.jpg
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@stephen-somers ·
Giddy up
πŸ‘  
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@teamsteem ·
I agree 100%. This is our chance to shine!
πŸ‘  ,
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vote details (2)
@barrydutton ·
I feel similarly to you, I just do not know as much about this  whole space as you but from what I DO know, I see things headed similarly to what you described.  

Sorry I did not catch this y-day.   Good post.
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@linkback-bot-v0 ·
This post has been linked to from another place on Steem.


  - [Latest Headlines in All Things Crypto - 12/21/2016 - Bitcoin Currently $837 / Steem Currently $0.13](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dailybitcoinnews/latest-headlines-in-all-things-crypto-12-21-2016-bitcoin-currently-usd831-steem-currently-usd0-13) by @dailybitcoinnews




Learn more about and upvote to support [**linkback bot v0.5**](https://steemit.com/steemit/@ontofractal/steem-linkback-bot-v0-5-the-reddit-awareness-release). Flag this comment if you don't want the bot to continue posting linkbacks for your posts.

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