I am strongly of the opinion that no single individual can conclude what will happen with the market but there are always going to be predictions here and there which of course is normal.

Hello friend @josevas217 I agree I think nobody knows for sure what direction the market will take, but we can get an idea depending on the strategy we manage. Those who work with that must take into account that the losses are also part of the process. The year 2020 helped us realize that nothing is constant, there will always be changes. Greetings.

i really try to find a reason. but no chance. sometimes i think 🤔 who is playing a game with all the coins. but not sure. somehow i have the idea that is just a pandemic buy. everyone is sitting at home and they can’t spend money, so they have new hobby: buy crypto 🧐

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" 

Usually, this is a problem when your investment positions are contrarian. In the short run you might lose, money but in the long run you will make money because the markets will "behave" like they are supposed to. The only problem is that sometimes markets stay irrational for a long time and you run out of money before you can see your investment pay off the way it should. An example of this is if you short Bitcoin right now. You know that Bitcoin 37,000 is too much, but can you maintain a short position long enough to make money on the coin crash?

The other case where this is a problem is if you have a lot of money in the market and the market is headed downward for no rational reason and you know that once the market becomes rational again then your investments will head back. The only problem is you might be bankrupt before the market recovers. This is what I took that phrase to mean. What are you thoughts?

Hi @josevas217

To say that one can know for sure what is going to happen in the markets is perhaps a little naive. 
Even the most expert and knowledgeable,  with very much years working and studying, occasionally when they invest they do so for the results obtained after the analysis of the variations suffered in the cryptomonies in a determined period.
However, we know that this does not give us 100% certainty of success in the operation.
Excellent reading.
Best regards

One of the things that I deeply believe is that when an investment becomes evident to everyone it stops being a good investment, it is not a question of looking for magic or secret formulas, it is simply that in the markets, first the whales win, then the average investors and in the end the mass of people, all because of the veracity of the information, it is sad, but when the majority is sure that the BTC will reach 100K, "then run and get your investment out, because if not in a short time it will be a waste of money".

Hello @josevas217, It is certainly very difficult for a single person to control and predict a market, as has been speculated many times in Venezuela, without credible foundations.

However, if I can affirm that based on conditions of a variable socioeconomic environment or a particular market, a trend could somehow be conceived that can be taken as a decision criterion. In other lines, some people rather rely on historical records of transactions in the stock market (for example) and through statistical tools they manage to make predictions and hypothesis analysis to recreate a scenario and make a decision, whether to buy, sell, invest or reject.

But as an absolute science, there is no way to have a clear and real trend, because not all investors and owners of capital have the same interests or are in mutual agreement simultaneously, here the level of uncertainty in terms of markets and investments is born. .

This is a really interesting area, I think once I would have liked to dabble in the banking and finance area, hehehe

Great post.

Without a doubt the markets are difficult to predict, some indicators can be used to give a clue of their behavior but nothing is certain, and in the cryptomoney market we have already seen that it is even more difficult.

As to what will happen in the market, we can't even predict the next second, otherwise everyone would have bought coins with certainty. 

That there are manipulators of the market can not be denied, there are people who manipulate both with their huge capital and rumours.

Nevertheless, it is important to always keep in mind that crypto investment is highly volatile. 

I'll advise moderation.

It's very difficult to understand the market as the market is governed by the whales and sentiment we cannot predict any move.

Bitcoin is purely valued on supply and demand so it could go to a million or it could go to $1,000 but the financial markets are exceptionally overvalued right now. Think about it: the economy is in a worse place than it was a year ago before COVID but our stock market is 20% higher. Forward P/E is 23, one of the highest on record. I'd say the next major leg is down, but no one can say when that will happen. I am wagering by March with some put spreads I have bought, but these things have a tendency to take a long time to play out.

> does anyone know exactly what is going to happen with the price of Bitcoin?

Nobody knows it, it is impossible. Timing buys and sells is very difficult in all free markets, with a 51 percent of success, you may be the king. (And with the proper risk-management.)
Investors, traders, analysts are trying to follow trends, may calculate probabilities. But knowing something "exactly" in the market - nobody, never, ever is capable of. Not even Warren Buffett.

🤑
***
My personal tactics: In these days, I'm also in a dilemma. If I sell bitcoin or ether and they keep going upwards, I may be very sad. If I don's sell any, and they fall back, I may feel also unpleasant. (And won't be able to buy it back lower.) So, I sold a very small portion of it. If it keeps going, I'm planning to sell some more. But never all the cryptos I have.

"Can anyone fully understand the markets?"

Fully understand, no.

But if one partially understands, gets lucky and diversifies to protect oneself from ignorance and arrogance...then one has a reasonable probability of profitability.

Good post @josevas217.