Mid-Month Thoughts on the Crypto Market by newageinv

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· @newageinv · (edited)
$2.59
Mid-Month Thoughts on the Crypto Market
<center>![Crypto Coin pexels-photo-843700.jpeg](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmWBX4rg6VvaWgkeiWMktEup1fmNaEXEWpExqSbq8GMRjc)
</center>
<center>[Source](https://www.pexels.com/photo/four-assorted-cryptocurrency-coins-843700/)</center>

<div class=text-justify>The 2019 uptrend in the cryptocurrency markets have been taking a breather the last couple of days with some drops taking place since the recent highs we have seen.  However, the market seems to have continued to rotate between assets to demonstrate some trends that are continuing. I have been looking at a couple of the indicators that I have been watching to help me determine when is the best time to scale into some positions for my portfolio.<p>

The key metrics that I continue to watch has been bitcoin dominance as I feel it is is a good indicator of the overall sentiment of risk among market participants. It briefly fell below 50% for the first time since August 2018 and it encouraged me to dip my toes into the market. I continued my Steem purchases as it continues to be the main asset I am adding to overall.  However, I had seen Ethereum underperforming a couple of assets and believe that potential remains within the network considering the changes they have seen and continue to see on their roadmap.  My perspective is that the move towards POS will be a positive one for the ecosystem and could create a great asset for passive income.  Therefore, I have started a process to scale into it to add to my position with the thought of staking the position in the future.  Considering that the price remains below $200, it seems attractive to me.

<center>![Screen Shot 2019-04-18 at 8.11.53 PM.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/Qma7GhYxfZC6yg9w2vrm6fFWjYWTdurTWPqFwSRgPLQafY)
</center>
<center>[Source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/global_charts)</center>

The bitcoin dominance increase we have seen has demonstrated that interest in the cryptocurrency markets continue to be led by bitcoin itself.  As seen by the volumes earlier this month, most new money was probably put into bitcoin itself which is why dominance has recovered to be over 50%.  This has led some of the leaders like Litecoin and EOS to have pullbacks in excessbof 15-20% and not participate in the rebound seen the last couple of days. This has probably also been due to some profit taking from investors that have seen the substantial increase in prices in some of these assets as a selling opportunity to get profits secured before determining next steps.  I, myself, have an “extra” position in Litecoin that I may consider selling if it continues its rise. I would not pull it out of the market but instead look to add to other assets I have in order to buy down their average costs.  Most of my portfolio is still under water considering that I diversified at the middle of last year.

Volumes remain strong despite pulling back a bit will Tether continues to see the highest level of turnover around as it trades in excess of $10 billion a day despite having a $2 billion market capitalization.  That means that the average Tether token is traded more than five times per day!  However, it also has Tether still in the Top 10 of market capitalization which tells me that there is still plenty of caution amongst the market participants. The FUD related to Tether has seemed to have all but disappeared as ot continues to leave the other Stablecoins look very small despite a growing market.  It is a concern I have as I want to move a portion of my total invested assets to a Stablecoin but want it to be one with liquidity in addition to a strong backing and transparency. Time will tell if others will grow but it seems like a one project industry at the moment.

The combination of these factors has me hesitant on the direction the market will take.  I do feel that the bottom is in even though there is still a chance we could see new lows given the way prices seem to be attracted to the over year old trendline. However, I would not be surprised and would actually enjoy some period of stability as assets reset for some price discovery at these levels. That leads me to support scaling into projects we believe in for the long term.  Unfortunately, it also put pressure on my own thoughts about Steem in the short term.

<center>![Screen Shot 2019-04-18 at 8.12.58 PM.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmbP5LdWkf3vvjkz6woTz6heGD18prstAYbXozPCxcCzDs)
</center>
<center>[Source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/dashboard)</center>

Steem has been underperforming despite a strong start this year. While it doesn’t stop my periodic purchases, the underperformance moves me to look elsewhere in search of better returns.  The fact that the supply of liquid Steem continues to be high, is an overhang to the thesis of strong demand for tokens in the ecosystem.  Therefore, I thinks its underperformance will continue until a catalyst arises like MIRA or SMTs but wouldn’t bet on it.  The only other catalyst that would get it moving again is the one that has made it move in the last which are new exchange listings.  I believe there is a group working hard on that so we need to keep our eyes out for these initiatives to support them when the community is called upon.  Nevertheless, Steem remains my main focus here and long term given the opportunity to create value that exists here already.

Lastly, what will be interesting to see is how cryptocurrencies move in comparison to general financial markets which themselves have had quite a move higher since the end of 2018.  This has many thinking that the Central Banks are incentivizing risk taking which bodes well for cryptocurrencies as an asset class.  However, it also adds to the volatility as move will be driven by the flow of investor sentiment more often. As the market continues to evolve, it will surely make for some exciting moves!</div>

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<sub><sup>DISCLAIMER: The information discussed here is intended to enable the community to know my opinions and discuss them. It is not intended as and does not constitute investment advice or legal or tax advice or an offer to sell any asset to any person or a solicitation of any person of any offer to purchase any asset. The information here should not be construed as any endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company or asset by me. There are inherent risks in relying on, using or retrieving any information found here, and I urge you to make sure you understand these risks before relying on, using or retrieving any information here. You should evaluate the information made available here, and you should seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, to evaluate any opinion, advice, product, service or other information; I do not guarantee the suitability or potential value of any particular investment or information source. I may invest or otherwise hold an interest in these assets that may be discussed here.</sup></sub>


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vote details (65)
@hashcash ·
$0.05
A lot of people have been taking  a more practical approach since the last bull run. Buying other than Steem is not that bad an idea. Steem is a bedrock for a lot of the people here but it also makes sense to diversify, even if its for short term gains.
👍  
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@newageinv ·
Yeah, I was seeing how my Steem position has been outweighing the portfolio and while that is fine given my long term view on Steem, I am still a believer in the technology of blockchain first and need to ensure Ibhave adequate exposure to it.

Posted using [Partiko iOS](https://partiko.app/referral/newageinv)
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@niallon11 ·
$0.05
There is still a lot that we don't know yet. It feels like the bottom has passed and things seem to be improving overall. I would think we are on the way up for the year.

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@newageinv ·
I am getting there to which is why it is worth deploying some capital but challenges still lie ahead I think for individual projects that will put pressure on markets.

Posted using [Partiko iOS](https://partiko.app/referral/newageinv)
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@nonsowrites ·
$0.05
The price of steem going down will affect me negatively since I have a loan to pay, meaning more steem for the dollar value of the loan I took. I do not understand the crypto market well enough but I do want to see the price of steem go up a little.

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://partiko.app/referral/nonsowrites)
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@newageinv ·
We need to keep doing what we do to add the value of the ecosystem and attract more to do the same!  It is not easy but we can be rewarded for doing so in many ways (not only financial).

Posted using [Partiko iOS](https://partiko.app/referral/newageinv)
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@rollandthomas ·
$0.05
A very high level analysis, I like how  you put the puzzle together to determine if things are breaking out or faking out.
👍  
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@newageinv ·
Yeah, I can’t say I am expert and surely never trying any TA but the feeling comes every once in a while and my thought is to share them for some perspective!  Thanks for the engagement!

Posted using [Partiko iOS](https://partiko.app/referral/newageinv)
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@partiko ·
Thank you so much for participating in the Partiko Delegation Plan Round 1! We really appreciate your support! As part of the delegation benefits, we just gave you a 3.00% upvote! Together, let’s change the world!
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@steem-ua ·
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Your **UA** account score is currently 4.993 which ranks you at **#1153** across all Steem accounts.
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@adenijiadeshina ·
$0.03
Sometimes i always wonder had it been I have so much dollars now to invest in steem
👍  
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vote details (1)
@newageinv ·
Same here! However, never all at once!  Small steps are much better!

Posted using [Partiko iOS](https://partiko.app/referral/newageinv)
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@bitbrain · (edited)
$0.09
A most interesting piece which covered many bases, thanks for sharing your perspectives!

If you are interested in a few comments from yours truly, here they are (if not, then just ignore the rest of this comment😜):

I too noticed that momentary BTC dominance dip. The general trend in BTC dominance is downwards (understandably). I expect to see BTC drop below 50% very soon. Once it hits 40% again, it is doubtful that it will ever reach 50% again within the foreseeable future - the trend is simply not in its favour as the adoption of 1000's of altcoins grows.

I have my doubts about Ether. Platform staking SHOULD generate hype (when it finally arrives), and I expect it to have a lasting effect on the value of the coin. But Ethereum is being left behind technologically and I question if its updates will be enough to allow it to catch-up to the competition like EOS and NEO 3.0. Binance Chain is clearly out to capture coins already on the Ethereum Chain and I think it will succeed in many cases. With growing competition which is technologically superior, I think that Ethereum will struggle to retain market share and popularity, especially if most ICOs of the future become IEOs.

Stablecoins are a bit dodgy, I have yet to find one I like. I have to question their motive for existing in the first place and there are clearly too many of them at the moment. In a growing market based on a growing technology, I would suggest rather using BTC as your "stable" coin. It should have far less chance of disappearing like centralised stablecoins can, and it should grow your portfolio value over time.

STEEM has really underperformed lately. I know how you feel, my CargoX has done the same, it's at ATL. My approach to this is to just keep on buying. Remember to be brave when others are fearful. If you truly believe in your coin, and I think you do, then my advice is to believe in the market cycles too and to keep growing your stack while it is cheap. At the same time I think you're doing the right thing by looking elsewhere too - diversification is security.

The effect of the big markets on crypto will be interesting to watch this year. But whether things go up or down, whether there is correlation, reverse correlation or no correlation at all - I am betting on traditional assets crashing very hard (again) sooner or later - and I want to be in crypto and precious metals when they do. The short term events are interesting, but ultimately irrelevant.
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@newageinv ·
Can’t argue with any of your comments as they are very relevant indeed!  NEO and EOS are also on my view as well! I think that I am liking DAI as a stablecoin in the short term but liquidity concerns me.  Ether is interesting as I agree with you tech assessment but then it reminds me of Apple that hasn’t innovated in 10 years but still is on top with their brand.

Posted using [Partiko iOS](https://partiko.app/referral/newageinv)
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@bitbrain · (edited)
Apple is a very different story. Apple relies on market differentiation which it has achieved by marketing itself as an "exclusive" brand to a richer clientele. It now enjoys brand loyalty which is maintained by the egos of its clients who want to flash their status symbols. Ether does not have that.

Funny world - but that's how it works.
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