<CENTER><H1>HAPPY NOT SO HAPPY NEW YEAR..</H1></CENTER>

Wash, rinse, repeat, 

Bitcoin is doing pretty much exactly what I said it would do in my analysis from yesterday. Price is ranging, and fighting to break longer term moving averages. As I stated yesterday I traded the trends went in on some smaller positions and exited them on signs of a reversal; in at $13,200 and out at $14,125. 

Moving onto the meat and potatoes of this article.

![2H.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdP3S49ueV1xVPxMsPvqdsEK5BxqZrHnGKaNu8e2HY6Dk/2H.png)

<center><b>2 Hour</b></center> 

The two hour time frame went down word for word exactly as I stated it would yesterday. The 77 provided unbreakable resistance, and it was “whack a mole” with the price as it was batted back down for further losses. Price attempted to break the 77 for 8 unsuccessful hours, and then made one more further lesser attempt 6 hours beyond that only to be rejected for lower lows. On the positive note, this period of selling has not been “high volume”, and we are entering “oversold” territory which may slow further losses down a bit. Today I will be watching to see if the 7 (blue) crosses below the 21 (purple) while already under the 77 (orange) and MACD 0 which would be extremely bearish and bring about accelerated price declines. 


![12c.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVRopXU1esYGv7HfwApDtcgLJLNFPiqk27yeqRu6VmXiz/12c.png)

<center><b>12 Hour</b></center> 

On the 12hour, the 7 has crossed decisively below the 77 and it looks as though the 21 is soon to follow. This may bring about a follow on selling period according to the MACD histogram in much the same fashion as the current 1 day time period is experiencing. It may also bring about a somewhat uneventful buying period that sees price rise to the high $14,000 range or better. As it has in the smaller time frames, the 77  is proving to be a difficult barrier and price has been rejected. It appears as if we may be coming to the close of this selling period and may enter a buying period that allows us to experience some gains and make progress towards recovery. If that occurs much will be learned from how much if any buying conviction we find in the next 48 hours.  Hopefully it will pull the 1 day into a buying period as well which would help our cause tremendously.  

More than likely we are going to experience a lower low in the sub $10,000 range at some point. 

![12f.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdbHfuggEzkdwjQtYcNQNZZx25SUNGLkzfnGZ5SJdgNtd/12f.png)

<center><b>12 Hour</b></center> 

If we look at the 12 hour covering a wider span of time we can see it has previously provided support while above the MACD 0 line. As markets are cyclic it is now going to provide resistance to the upside. This is not to say there are not gains to be made following the shorter term trends, just that we are not in a HODL load up the truck we are on the way to the moon scenario. What I intend to do is buy at points where it extends significantly below the 77, ride it back up to the 77 and dump it there if it fails to break through. Price will ALWAYS attempt to make it back to the trend line (moving average) be it above or below, it will always seek to go back and honor it. In bullish times the moving average serve as support and a bounce point for further gains. In bearish times moving averages serve as ceilings for rejection and further losses. 





![1D.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTRLVFwEAhTHvFtA9BoeRpMdQXBvzMNhmiwWviMbMmVkX/1D.png)

<center><b>1 Day</b></center> 

Not much has changed here. We are still trending downwards and should find support in the $10,000 range. I do not expect price to go crashing through the $10,000 but I would not be surprised to see it hit the $10,000's, bounce up to $12,000- $13,000, limp along, break down and crash it at a later point. Much will be learned when we are finally able to enter a buying period for this time frame. If it lacks conviction, then expect impressive lows to occur during the follow on selling cycle, if it does show signs of hope, then expect moderate losses or higher lows during the selling period that follows. 


![3D.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPzE5ESxBHwXmt8ga1UCNjYCyoCHzLQqboNTtp92vL4g1/3D.png)


<center><b>3 Day</b></center> 

Both this time frame and the weekly time frame lead me to a very bearish interpretation of overall market health. If we compare the RSI and MACD for this period to the RSI and MACD for the 1 day period above and assume that it will follow a similar path towards longer term moving averages, then the  “Blue Candle” (my addition which has not yet occurred) may be a real possibility. Though I doubt it will occur quite that dramatically at first, as there will be ups and downs along the way as price swings in the lesser time frames. 


![3dp.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPH8AMXcEwqAGSnf5S6gSMWdKntFsHy4ftVKgWoRT1owR/3dp.png)


<center><b>3 Day</b></center> 

Another probable price pathway if Bitcoin continues to break down and if the 3 day follows the same pattern in regards to the moving averages, RSI, MACD as demonstrated by the 1 day. Excuse my artistic skills I’m using paint. 



![1W.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSuX7jE1LKCxmWQ39eYN1myRGgzLBoPu8F37nVH11Aebw/1W.png)

<center><b>1 Week</b></center> 

This combined with the 3 day also makes me feel bearish about the overall health of the market.  The RSI 3 (white), the faster of the two lines has nearly reached bottom, which in 90 percent of cases means the RSI  14 (purple) will come down to meet it, taking price along for the ride. We are also dangerously close to an MACD/Signal line crossover which would indicate significant losses are in the cards. As it the case with moving averages, the MACD will always come back to zero at some point. As we are extremely far above the 0 and entering bearish territory we may be in for a very exciting ride that costs a great many people trying to play pick the bottom a lot of money. We have also not seen a weekly selling period in quite some time, as such we are due for one. Based on that information I do not think we are on the path to recovery as of yet. That said this is crypto and things can change based on something as silly as a positive news report. 

IF THE WEEKLY MACD/SIGNAL LINE CROSSES AND STARTS HEADING TOWARD 0 WE COULD SEE SUB $7,000 BTC OR LOWER. Again to early to tell and I am simply trying to extrapolate the behavior of lesser time frames onto larger time frames as patterns are patterns and occur in the same fashion regardless of time frame. If this becomes the case we could see a very sad market up through mid February or better. Also BTC in this price range would give BCH much momentum towards taking 1st place as it is a technologically superior product and bring about the flippening I have spoken about in the past. Play cautiously for the moment until the longer trends show definitive signs of recovery. 

Remember the key to trading is not always being right, it's keeping an open mind as to all possible scenarios based upon the indicators. Taking that information and continually analyzing and reassessing it based on new information to narrow those probabilities down. This will avoid shock, keep panic away and allow you to make informed decisions based on outcomes you have already foreseen as possibilities through your analysis. 





Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-31-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-30-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-29-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-28-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-24-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-19-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-17-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-15-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook




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