Not So Fast Ari Wald & Byron Wien by rollandthomas

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· @rollandthomas · (edited)
$9.84
Not So Fast Ari Wald & Byron Wien
<center>https://mentormarket.io/rolland/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2019/01/disagree.jpg</center> <br/><p>The beginning of the a new year is a time for all (really anybody) Wall Street pundits to make their year end predictions.  I have come across many articles over the last several days predicting where the S&amp;P 500 will be and where oil will be and where gold will be and where interest rates will be by year end.  Two predictions in particular that I came across were the following:</p>
<img src="https://mentormarket.io/rolland/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2019/01/image-35.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3065" />
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote"><p>“We expect a bear market rally to develop over the coming weeks, and we expect a new bull market to develop over the coming months to quarters,” said Ari Wald, a technical analyst at Oppenheimer &amp; Co.</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote"><p>Wald believes the recent spate of weakness is the cyclical bear market waking up in the midst of a secular bull market and suggested that the selling pressure will soon work itself out.</p>
</blockquote>
<p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-traditional-stock-bond-correlation-disappeared-in-2018-spelling-trouble-for-investors-2018-12-26">Source </a></p>
<img src="https://mentormarket.io/rolland/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2019/01/image-36.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3066" />
<p>Although vice chairman of private wealth solutions at Blackstone, Byron Wein got most of his 2018 predictions correct, on CNBC Thursday he predicted a major comeback to new highs for the stock market in 2019. </p>
<p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/blackstone-byron-wien-sees-stock-market-up-15-percent-this-year-to-new-highs.html">Source</a></p>
<p> The concepts of support and resistance is probably technical analysis 101.  And trendlines are technical analysis 201.  When you combine the role reversal of trendlines, a broken support level will become a future area of resistance or that a previous level of resistance will become support on the higher time frame, it creates a very accurate picture of whats to come.  <br></p>
<p>Below is a long term trend line on the S&amp;P 500 showing what was support become resistance, become support. </p>
<img src="https://mentormarket.io/rolland/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2019/01/image-37-1024x477.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3067" />
<p>But recently, price broke through support. </p>
<img src="https://mentormarket.io/rolland/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2019/01/image-38-1024x478.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3068" />
<p>It doesn't matter that I disagree with Ari and Byron, the chart suggests the trendline will serve as resistance now and price will take another leg down. </p>
<img src="https://mentormarket.io/rolland/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2019/01/image-39-1024x480.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3069" />
<p>This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial
advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making
investment decisions.</p>
  
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@workin2005 ·
6epylkrteb
I’d take that ascending support/resistance line with a grain of salt. It’s the bearish divergence on the weekly that gets my attention. Nice post Rolland
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@newageinv ·
Regression to the mean will be the play for 2019 so I think we will be plus or minus 5-10% for the year.  However, I think volatility will stay around and extend those trading channels this year.

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