Do you interprete the recent's SBD move as the omen to foreshadow a similar pattern in STEEM in the nearest future? by sapwood

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· @sapwood ·
$9.40
Do you interprete the recent's SBD move as the omen to foreshadow a similar pattern in STEEM in the nearest future?
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![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbZwABSAom9CGX8THXiZKEcRL5nShDU9a7yjciNktBFRV/image.png)

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![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbfXKLEJKpKC6etH97XwdxW3LTaG9iXdX2hU5MVPEehAt/image.png)


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![sap102.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUkyUpmYywLE7gYR3wQWSo5TB2rXQqGsVMddGqD1U3asN/sap102.png)

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With SBD price sky-rocketing as high as $5.16 on Dec 1, 2020, it is a 5X value from its pegged value. Naysayers can very well be again critical of SBD, saying, it is not good as a pegged coin or questioning its sustainability. But those like me who have long been a strong proponent of SBD, look up to it as a coin which offers both the value of a stable coin and speculative coin. The later being strongly backed by its limited supply of 5.8 Million only.

But this publication is not about whether it is sustainable or not, but about it being insinuating a trend, a new one, maybe a bullish one, pertaining to STEEM. 

I can still recollect those days when it was SBD that started mooning first, and later on, STEEM joined that trend.

So we can't just ignore co-relating its movement of 2017 to 2020 now. I am not saying SBD or STEEM will achieve that high in 2017, it is up to the market to decide how high it could go. 

SBD as a coin has historically traded around its pegged value, but during historic movement, just like the all-time-high of BTC in 2017 hitting 20K USD, it has offered the value of a speculative coin also.

BTC in 2020 is about to hit and cross the 20K mark, and similar sentiments have started unfolding in some of the altcoins. SBD is just one among them.

So a serious trader/steemian seeks to establish a connexion between the omen and the event which it is presumed to foreshadow. And SBD mooning to $5.16 overnight is just that omen? Does it foreshadow a similar pattern for STEEM?

Let's look at the historical price of SBD back in 2017, and how it sky-rocketed and later STEEM joined the rally to print an all-time-high.


![sbd-01.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRf35SPcfD2ArX6QgxTgGWEkY5dqXYoouBVMvnNUVmH5p/sbd-01.png)

![sbd-02.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbBufr4n5HtCoWtPRqukjsVNZpyzGWpfeaswzUmCK4aBu/sbd-02.png)

SBD in 2017 started its rally on 21st Nov, printing as high as $16.17 in Dec 2020. More or less the overall bullish trend(above its pegged value) continued to remain for more than 2 months. 

A few days later, STEEM joined the rally and started rising, printing higher highs on a daily basis. Let's look at the pattern of the STEEM trend in 2017.


<center>![steem-01.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVpg83WxaY75mefhtKrvQdaD65gtFcFZW1uKq2MVUMjwN/steem-01.png)</center>

![steem-02.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmToY2kdzV5uGgvWfg47FnK1agGRzCqhsY7FUmWtjqd7ve/steem-02.png)

As established from the table and chart, STEEM started its rally on 1st Dec 2017 reaching an all-time-high of $8.57 on 3rd Jan 2017. 

Interestingly, the gap between the start of the rally between STEEM and SBD in 2017 was 9 days. SBD started its rally on 22nd Nov 2017 whereas STEEM on 1st Dec. So anyone who anticipated the cues from SBD move in between these 9 days made huge money in STEEM for sure.

But does the SBD and STEEM trend following the same way right now, in 2020? Let's look at the trend of both SBD and STEEM in 2020. 


<center>![sbd-03.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNM6Z3Q5Wuz5wQoDUcnDCyLE5hM3vMmVfAkJyMUrRuY38/sbd-03.png)</center>

![sbd-04.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfCBd6HX7RiUVhzPFKPVTbWXBnNgZvTF6Et5EXMQSk4Ua/sbd-04.png)

SBD started trading above its pegged value on Nov 18, 2020 and refreshing its recent highs to $5.16 yesterday, however, the close price was $2.37. Even if it is so, it definitely created an opportunity just like a store-of-value coin. Most of the trading activity(99%) is seen in the Korean market in Upbit. That's a homecoming for SBD holders. 


![sbd-05.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTtvNUS5ZwkLEzHipP7RfaMzb2ZEwnQzaPKnzqLzRtkPY/sbd-05.png)
<center><sub>Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem-dollars/</sub></center>

Now let's look at the STEEM trend in 2020.


<center>![steem-03.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPN97c3zsiKTujjdf6LGcMrNvsztysDTLYiaBXJ64pZuo/steem-03.png)</center>

![steem-04.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPouoEmDNG25W9UpPymkYsSsZasy2Rhcd7p4Q72yyJG8b/steem-04.png)

The price of STEEM was in the range of $0.15-0.16 level until 23rd Nov and then it started to rise and yesterday printed a high of $0.246. 

Interestingly, the gap between the start of the rally of SBD and STEEM is 6 days in 2020. SBD started rallying on 18th and STEEEM on 23rd 2020. 

In 2017, that figure was 9 days and in 2020 it seems to be 6 days. But how large the trend could be only time can tell, but the bullish sentiment around Bitcoin, about to refresh the all-time-high of 20K, the altcoins beginning to piggyback the sentiment, all are pointing to something good for STEEM. And that could be a homecoming for all Steemians.

I don't think this sentiment is seasonal, rather it is bigger than that, cyclic changes of the pattern could very well unfold at this time, which will swing from yearly low to a yearly high. 

Now both technically & fundamentally it seems like a low in place for STEEM and it can very well correct higher. On the way up, the major resistance will be $0.70 which was the multi-year support for STEEM, now turned resistance. But if the bullish pressure and broader market sentiment persist, then it will push through that level, then there will be clear water and more blue sky for STEEM to sail through.

 So what do you say? Join me in the comment section.

Thank you.

Steem on.

![sap102.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUkyUpmYywLE7gYR3wQWSo5TB2rXQqGsVMddGqD1U3asN/sap102.png)

Cc:-
@steemitblog
@steemcurator01
@steemcurator02

![sap102.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUkyUpmYywLE7gYR3wQWSo5TB2rXQqGsVMddGqD1U3asN/sap102.png)

<center>*Unless otherwise stated, all the images, infographics, charts, tables, etc(if any) are my original works. The data is taken from Coinmarketcap.com.*</center>


![sap102.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUkyUpmYywLE7gYR3wQWSo5TB2rXQqGsVMddGqD1U3asN/sap102.png)

##### DISCLAIMER
<sup>This is not financial advice, nor a guarantee or promise in regards to any result that may be obtained from using the above content. So it should not be considered as financial and/or investment advice. No person should make any kind of financial decision without first consulting their financial adviser and/or conducting their research and due diligence.</sup>

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vote details (277)
@steemcurator07 ·
You have been upvoted by @rishabh99946 A [Country Representative from INDIA]( https://steemit.com/the1000daysofsteem/@steemitblog/1000-days-of-steem-day-17-steem-pod-country-representatives-delegationsand) I am voting with the Steemit Community Curator @steemcurator07 account to support the newcomers coming into steemit. 

--- 

Follow @steemitblog for the latest update on Steem Community and other writing challenges and contest such as [The diary game Season 3](https://steemit.com/the1000daysofsteem/@steemitblog/1000-days-of-steem-the-diary-game-season-2-ends-season-3) , [Better Life](https://steemit.com/the1000daysofsteem/@steemitblog/1000-days-of-steem-a-better-life-with-steem-new-content-and-curation-project), etc. Also keep engaging with others to win #onepercent & #twopercent votes
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@sapwood ·
Thank you.
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@imamalkimas · (edited)
this is very good and can also be a science for us.  I think the price of this coin is very difficult for us to guess and we have to go back to the market, because the market decides everything with a few things that the market must consider, maybe we can predict in our minds, the price of the coin will be expensive when the stock decreases and also  can be cheap when there are lots of stock .. thank you friend for providing this good information


#indonesia
#onepercent
#affable
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@sapwood ·
Thank you for your insight.
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@imamalkimas ·
hopefully it will go as we want and there are no obstacles whatsoever
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@trabajosdelsiglo ·
Good article, the value of BTC will attract thousands of people who want to make money fast and this will positively influence all projects like steemit.
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@sapwood ·
Yes, very likely. Let's see how it unfolds.

Thank you.
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@emiliomoron ·
Very good analysis friend, no doubt it is an emotional moment, we have already seen some cyclical trends in the markets, and perhaps we could see something similar to what we experienced in 2017, only time and the market will tell, the truth is that we must be vigilant.
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@sapwood ·
Thank you.
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@crypto.piotr ·
Dear @sapwood

Finally I managed to find some time to catch up with work and read your publication. Another solid piece, worth checking out (upvote on the way).

I think it's hard not to consider this movement to be purely speculative. Market manipulation. It doesn't look like healhy demand at all.

>  But those like me who have long been a strong proponent of SBD, look up to it as a coin which offers both the value of a stable coin and speculative coin. 

I trully am failing to understand what is the mechanism allowing SBD to be pegged 1:1 with STEEM. I'm not sure how is price of this token stablized. It surely isn't easy to keep it pegged to usd.

I also do not know what are benefits of having stable coin build on top of such a small and struggling blockchain.

> But does the SBD and STEEM trend following the same way right now, in 2020? Let's look at the trend of both SBD and STEEM in 2020.

If it will, then it will only prove again that SBD is pointless and it's only confusing. New users have trouble understanding what is it for and on top of that it clearly doesn't serve purpose (of being a stable coin).

So hopefully we will not follow this old trend.

Have a EASY monday ahead of you :)
Yours, Piotr
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