You can find out how many bitcoin wallets contain a balance above a certain size from the website https://bitcoinprivacy.net/stats.

Using the data from this site, and a little Excel calculation it is possible to determine how many wallets contain a particular number of bitcoin.

I analysed the number of wallets one year ago (on 19 September 2016) and compared them with the figures for 19th September 2017 and with 19th October 2017.
 ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcBb45RvZYqGsfegMWJWw3ANrqm3bnVhaFuQ5GjRVS4sX/image.png)

# Conclusions
There is an ongoing reduction in the number of largest wallets.  The much higher price for Bitcoin has incentivized some of the largest holders to sell some bitcoins, or to split their holdings into several smaller wallets.

As far as the middle-sized wallets are concerned - those holding between 0.01 bitcoins ($55) and 15 bitcoins ($82'500), - coloured in ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUoVYMMhjY8jQN3mgsf8i6UZxwfJca1WgtzhT1MB5W3UQ/image.png)above are concerned, the number of new wallets grew 58% year-on-year to 19th September 2017.   In the month to 19th October 2017. this band of wallets grew by 7.2%, which if multiplied by 12 would give an annual growth rate of 86.7%.   With monthly compounding, that annual figure would be considerably larger.

The evidence is that the number of middle-sized bitcoin wallets is increasing at a faster pace now than over the last year.

Last year, the number of middle-sized bitcoin wallets increased by 1.6 million.  

If October's increase of 317'318 mid-sized wallets is flat-lined, the next 12 months will see 3.8 million middle-sized wallets created.  On the other hand, with monthly compounding, we would see some 10.8 million new wallets created holding between 0.01 bitcoins and 15 bitcoins. 

Given that only 650'000 coins will be mined in the next 12 months, both results look to be mathematically implausible, (I think I can prove this in my next post - to come), even if the whales accelerate their selling.

So what gives?  In my opinion, it will be the price.  In other words, the price has to be so much higher than now, that a typical new investor can only afford a much smaller number of bitcoins.

# Risk warning
Please don't interpret any of the above as investment advice.  It's not.  It's just a guess at the future and may be no better than betting on a three-legged horse or a fat greyhound.  
The price of bitcoin may drop very substantially, tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year, and could fall even to zero.  You could be made into a fool very quickly.  Don't invest money you can't afford to lose.