Thinking about wearing vests: vote, steem and payout by tarazkp

View this thread on steempeak.com
· @tarazkp · (edited)
$18.87
Thinking about wearing vests: vote, steem and payout
No, not like Patrick Jane from the *Mentalist.*

Last night I wrote a post about [Balancing Distribution](https://steemit.com/steem/@tarazkp/balancing-distribution) and mentioned vests and how important they are to think about and this is a kind of followup post of sorts that I hope will give a few people some things to think about and perhaps adjust their behaviors if they are looking long term. The reason is is that it is the vests that draw on the pool, not the price of Steem. While everyone worries about the price, they might be missing opportunity. 

https://i.imgur.com/oPfSzIU.jpg

Vests are essentially the % of the pool an account has access to. If we image that there is a pool of 100 Steem and there are 10 accounts with even stake, they each have 10% ownership of the pool. If all vote completely, they all draw 10 Steem from it. If 2 accounts have 30% stake each and the other are even, they will have 5% each. When all vote completely, the 2 accounts draw 60 Steem, the other 8 pull 40 Steem from the pool.  

It doesn't really matter how much Steem Power they have, it is the percentage of ownership that is important. If the 2 accounts have 300k Steem each, and the other 8 have 5000 Steem each, the pool is still only 100 Steem so, The 2 accounts will draw 60 Steem, the 8 will split 40 Steem. 

At this moment, there are 771,661 STEEM in the pool and 523,516,345B drawing on the pool. This means that the payouts are that pool split across the percentages of all votes cast. This is also why when the very large voters like the bidbots cast a very large vote, you may literally see your payout decrease a cent or two as they have pulled a large percentage of the pool and it draws a fraction away from all other payouts. The bidbots actively vote their entire 20% stake per day and have access to ~30% of the pool. They vote on less than ~0.6% of the posts. 

But, this isn't about that. 

What people miss right now is that a voter is likely to increase their vote percentage when prices are down. I know that I do. I vote with *more vests on less people.* This is because content that I think is worth more should get more. However, once upon a time I had a 15 dollar vote but, *much less steem power* When it was at that price I would vote with lower percentages on more accounts and some highly rewarded posts, I wouldn't vote on at all. 

People don't bat an eye lid these days at a post with 500 dollars on it but, that is a *massive* amount of vests at these prices. How much? That is 7 x 100% votes from a whale with 1,000,000 Steem Power. It is 3 x 100% votes from the largest active voter, @utopian-io which has 3.6 million Steem to vote with 3 of those type of posts and @Utopian-io's voting power is gone. But, if Steem was 10x higher, they could vote on 30 such posts and get them all to 500 dollars (they can't vote on a post 3 times though I know).

Their current 100% vote with 3.6 million is 170 dollars but at 10x Steem, that will be 1700 dollars. Do you think they will only vote 10 times or, will they drop their percentages and reward many more posts? *Drop percentages.* If they were rewarding only 20 people today at 85 each, as price increases they might want to reward them more but, they aren't going to give them 850 each because they will *more accurately* consider the value of the post. It might have been worth 170 dollars. What that means is while an author will be able to double their value, Utopian-io will be able to reward 5x as many authors with 170 dollars. In *Fiat Terms* at least.

What this means is that their voting stake at 100% VP currently to 20 posts would be a 50% vote to give 85 dollars to each, to do the same later, they will only need a 5% vote. If they want to double the author fiat value to 170 dollars, they will need to use only a 10% vote. Whereas before the post was getting a 50% draw on the pool with that stake, now they are only getting a 10% draw. What that means is, *less Steem coming out of the pool* on 20 posts, and instead the same amount will get spread across 100 posts. The fiat values could remain the same at 85 of course and they could give it to 200 posts instead. 

What this means is that if a payout of 85 currently gets 85 Steem, when Steem is 10x up, the same value payout will get 8.5 Steem. Both will have the same fiat values though. Now, this is all things remaining equal. If we look at posting activity (thanks @penguinpablo), we can see what happens with price decreases. These are from April to now.

https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYGWhxAxqqcvVfsHpBh8pjUvTcJzWk1fTKd5NTTYL4T3a/image.png 
[source](https://steemit.com/steemit/@penguinpablo/daily-steem-stats-report-friday-november-2-2018)

The reverse is true for price increases of course. Activity goes up. If price goes up 10x from here and considering the growing interest in crypto, we could expect post numbers to increase similarly. In the last 2 weeks there were 186696 posts and 629227 comments and we might see that go to 1.8 million posts and 6.2 million comments in a two week period. That is your new 10x competition. 

So, not only will there be a lowering of voting percentages, there will be dramatically increased competition for eyes on posts. But, even though there will be many more users, most of those posters will not have vested interests to vote with. So essentially, there will still be the same 2163 accounts with more than 5000 SP, still only 8864 minnows but, there will 8 million posts or comments looking for votes. How are they going to find you?

This is why community interaction is going to be so vital here and why people should be seriously considering how they interact here because if they don't network well and choose to lone wolf it, without stake it is going to be near impossible to ever get seen. At least on Steem. This will be eased somewhat by the purpose-built applications and the fact that most large accounts will be somewhat forced to delegate to communities to burn their voting stake. 

Now, if hypothetically*none* of the large accounts voted at all, the pool would be split between the smaller voters but this is highly unlikely considering they still want to earn, whether it be from curation or vote selling. To earn from curation, one still has to vote. It is unlikely *all* whales will stop voting (especially a couple we already know well) so again, the more the small fish collectively power up, the more they can draw from the pool. 

But remember, even though the Steem might reduce, the value per steem earned can go up. A 10 cent vote now at 10x will be a 1 dollar vote. If voting at 100% (all things equal) it will draw the same amount of Steem from the pool. if it draws 0.1 Steem now, it will draw 0.1 later. The difference will be the fiat value of that 0.1 Steem. Remember though, there will be increased competition on the pool though which means lower chances of receiving that vote but if you have that vote yourself, it is yours to use as you choose. The system is set up to reward based on stake, not having stake means one has 0% claim on the pool, no matter the price. 

While people aren't posting, they are increasing the chances that others have of claiming the Steem in the pool but, because voters will likely increase their percentages to reward higher, there are less votes going out. This is definitely a good time to be earning Steem *if* one has the ability to attract votes and generally, shitposts don't get much unless well, good network, track histoy, circlejerk or bidbot. 

What people might not realise though is that price increases and people reduce their percentage, the *'more accurate'* assessment of value comes into play. If people see memes with 500 dollars on them, they are likely going to get flagged. This is even more likely if they end up reducing the cost of flags. If people see photos with 2000 dollars on them, same thing. A large account could drop it down significantly.  What ends up hapening is that shitposts might still get rewarded but the larger amounts are more likely to go on where people find value.

What this all comes together as though is if one is here now looking long term and wanting to grow, the higher the price goes, the harder that will be *even though* the fiat value of the payouts can increase a lot. The higher the price, the less new minnows, dolphins, orcas and whales there will be. To buy in as a dolhin with 5000 Steem now is ~4000 dollars. That might be doable but at 10x that same 4000 dollars buys 500 Steem, it makes a minnow. 

You can make of this post what you will but I write these so that I can develop a better picture of the situation for myself. I *think* that the information is correct enough but of course, the dynamics change markedly with price movement, culture, onboarding, code changes as well as coming SMTs, Oracles, RC pools and many potential users who will have zero stake but still be looking to earn.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
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vote details (108)
@felixgarciap ·
$0.04
Thank for sharing dear friend @tarazkp
👍  
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@hlezama ·
$0.07
That's a lot to process. I'm not good at the maths, but I think I get the overall picture.
I was told when I started here that it would not make sense to upvote a post that had already accumulated a big payout and for a while I restrained myself from upvoting most posts if I get to them after they've got 20 0r more SBDs. Was that a wrong call then?
Should 15 SP users vote for big posts regardless?
👍  ,
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@tarazkp ·
15 SP users should vote on whatever they like and engage all they can. The curation return is almost insignificant for everyone on earth and even worse if voting on already high posts. A comment vote here will get you more than a weeks curation with 15 SP.
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@hlezama ·
$0.06
Well, yes, that's right. Engagement, quality content and investment (when possible) seem to be the keys here.
👍  ,
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@abh12345 ·
$0.07
Makes sense to me and why it's a good time to be collecting :)

Just a bit crap if you are paying for living, but hope that 10x is coming again in the future.
👍  
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@tarazkp ·
$0.03
Does it make sense? This is how I understand it anyway. :)

>Just a bit crap if you are paying for living, but hope that 10x is coming again in the future.

Definitely crap but at the same time, a good reminder of what's at stake.
👍  
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@abh12345 ·
$0.07
Yes I believe the text is solid :)

No pump for Steemfest then, I'll be paying Eric out of the penny jar.
👍  
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@indigoocean ·
$0.14
I hung in there with you until about half way. You've reminded me that if you don't use your math skills you really do lose them. LOL
👍  ,
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@tarazkp ·
$0.02
My math sucks so I hope no one looks too closely. However, I think you know what you are doing in this regard anyway :)
👍  ,
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@phoneinf ·
It's good automation will take over the math stuff as well. Sophia will let humans be humans lol! 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ml9v3wHLuWI
👍  
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@soyrosa ·
$0.07
I'm not good with numbers, at all, but *yes*, we are playing with less competition for the same (and even quite high!) overall reward pool. Perfect time for 'us' who stuck it out during this bull market and kept posting, curating, commenting all these months. (I recently found my first grey hairs, can you believe it? That's no coincidence.)

And *yes*, these dollar values influence voting behaviour, including mine, even though they shouldn't, since a vote of a 'certain amount of Vests' is just that 'a vote of a certain amount of Vests'. 

It will take time and a lot of rerouting in the brain before we can think in STEEM value 100%. Often we keep exchanging the rates, as I kept doing years after the euro was implemented. The moments I know I'm going into the right direction is when I see a price in STEEM and think 'wish I could pay in euro, rather keep my STEEM'.
👍  
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@tarazkp ·
Thinking in Steem is surprisingly hard to do but is a useful way to think. I started thinking about this a while ago when I changed my voting behavior on comments due to price increases and subsequent decreases. A large voter gives a 1% vote on a comment and it could be 5 dollars and that is the smallest they can do. That same voter now with similar vests will add 1 dollar with a 4% vote. Te person receiving the vote doesn't realise that in steem terms, they are actually getting more.
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@soyrosa · (edited)
$0.04
I was on an auto 'whale vote' for a few months that stayed the same percentage wise in all these months and I saw my posts go from 80$ to 13$ in a matter of months. I knew intellectually 'it didn't matter' but a non-Steemian friend who reads my blog asked me 'why are you earning less and less each week?' 

It made me realize it will take a lot of educating once the 'normies'/masses get on board :-) Maybe we should have a 'Vest' value next to the dollar payout - because how many voting Vests you receive on a post is actually more telling... of how well you are doing. *Just thinking out loud*
👍  
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@frankvvv ·
$0.11
Thanks for giving these further explanations. What will that mean for voter bots, when they are active in the delegations market, paying people to lend them some Steem Power? Will the percentages they pay to get this temporary Steem Power go down or up, when the Steem price is 10X? Or will it all stay the same?
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@tarazkp ·
$0.02
No worries.  Not exactly sure yet on how they will be affected overall.
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@amvanaken ·
$0.04
You should be thinking about wearing the logo... Like on your head 🤣😏

Posted using [Partiko iOS](https://steemit.com/@partiko-ios)
👍  
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@ungiveuper ·
$0.11
Can i have two accounts on steemit? Is this not against steemit policy?
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@phoneinf ·
Create 10 if you want. This is not Facebook/YouTube/Instagram gestapo laws lol, you are free here 😂

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKKF_vFshMM
👍  
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@ungiveuper ·
$0.03
Hey @phoneinf . Thnks buddy😊👍
👍  
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@tarazkp ·
Do as you please :)
👍  
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@firststeps ·
$0.11
Even though I only inderstand about half of what you say, I am glad someone is trying to explain all the intricasies of voting and encouraging us to promote good content.
👍  ,
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@phoneinf ·
Soon robots will do both the voting and the content creation 😂🤖
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@steem-ua ·
#### Hi @tarazkp!

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your **UA** account score is currently 6.146 which ranks you at **#257** across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has dropped 4 places in the last three days (old rank 253).

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 234 contributions, your post is ranked at **#5**.
##### Evaluation of your UA score:

* You've built up a nice network.
* The readers appreciate your great work!
* Good user engagement!


**Feel free to join our [@steem-ua Discord server](https://discord.gg/KpBNYGz)**
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