Are You Ready For The Collapse? by taskmaster4450

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· @taskmaster4450 ·
$12.66
Are You Ready For The Collapse?
This is probably a rhetorical question when asked of people who are already involved in cryptocurrency.  People, through this very action, are already hedging against fiat and what governments/banks around the world are doing.

Depending upon who you listen to, there is a chance that you heard talk that a financial apocalypse is on its way.  Some will tell you the end is near.  The problem I have with this viewpoint is the same people were touting that for much of the last decade.  Right now, we see the stock market at an all-time high, the U.S. economy, the largest in the world, is growing, and China is still seeing a good, positive growth rate even if it is slowing.

Hence, are we really heading for a total collapse?

I guess the answer to this question is what your definition of collapse is and how you envision it.  The doom and gloom people believe we are going to see most major economies, governments, and institutions going under almost overnight.  Get the guns and bullets ready, civil unrest is around the corner.

Personally, my view is a bit less dramatic although very painful.  I see the financial engineering that took place for much of the last decade coming home to roost.  Somehow, they managed to prop things up for a decade, causing a run in many asset classes.  This is a classic credit-fueled bubble.  Looking back over the last 100 years, we see how this tends to unwind.

It is not pretty.

<center>https://media.salon.com/2018/08/financial-armageddon.jpg
[Source](https://www.salon.com/2018/08/12/the-end-is-near-a-play-by-play-of-the-coming-economic-collapse/)</center>


The global economy, in my opinion, is teetering.  It is getting closer to going over the edge.  No matter how much they engineer things, I do not believe recessions are avoidable.  This is exactly what the central banks are trying to do.  Perpetual growth is the only goal, subscribing to the belief that we can stop the pullbacks that tend, in the long run, to be healthy for economies.

Hence, we have a lot of zombie institutions out there.  These are entities which should be dead and buried.  Instead, they are propped up with cheap debt, thus putting off the day of reckoning.

Unfortunately, there comes a time when the can cannot be kicked any further.  And that is when it is game over.

At present, I see the U.S. economy and the USD being the best of the worst.  Both are fairly solid compared to the rest of the world.  That does not mean it is good, just better than what else is out there.  When this goes, then the "safe havens" people look for are all gone.  Few use gold as a hedge and even fewer turn to cryptocurrencies.

However, the later might be just what the doctor ordered.  

As asset prices start to collapse, panic sets in.  People begin to look for places to park money that will hold up against the downturn.  With a global economy being such a mirage, it is tough to know what that is.  Markets have a way of mirroring each other, taking the diversification idea and tossing it aside.  In the U.S., a large downturn in real estate is going to pull the stock market down with it.  The Fed will, presumably, respond with more cutting (which they are doing anyway), meaning the currency and bond markets will be upset.  

All the while, many of us are sitting in cryptocurrency.  And this could be a saving grace.

The worse things gets, the better I foresee cryptocurrency doing.  To start, the reason is very simple: crypto is often priced in fiat.  This means that as banks start to race to the bottom, the fiat currencies are going to collapse.  This will mean a massive run up in crypto just because of the pairing.

Another aspect to this is the idea of money flow.  Crypto is still a small market.  Thus, it will not take a lot of money flowing in to really get it going.  The publicity over the last few years, albeit mostly negative, did make people aware of this as an asset class.  Sharp investors are going to look to get out of those markets that are falling.  Crypto could be a place many turn to.

The race between the present system and what is being erected using blockchain/cryptocurrency could be accelerated by events in the global economy.  Many are already losing trust with the present state of things.  My belief is the next downturn is going to surpass that of a decade ago...by a substantial margin.  

Bitcoin was a result of the financial games played by the banks during the last crisis.  Now, after a decade of development, we are seeing an alternative system developed using the crypto technology.  The next financial collapse might be what pulls cryptocurrency into the mainstream.

History shows that each bust is worse than the previous.  This is something that started in the 1980s and is only continuing.  The net that is cast is getting wider with each one.  This time, because of technological advancements and automation, I feel that corporations are going to make it very hard on people.  Unlike in the past where there was little option other than to hire people back when things bottomed out, companies will have the choice of automating.

Suddenly, the ROI on that investment makes a lot more sense.  

Regardless of when all this happens, I think being in cryptocurrency is a great way for people to protect themselves.  As ecosystems develop and marketplaces start opening up, we will see mini-economies all over the place.  Unlike the present system, we will not see governments and central banks playing their games.  By the time they realized what happened, it will be too late.

The President and his cohorts have time to comment on Bitcoin when things are relatively stable (at least on the surface).  When the wheels are falling off, Bitcoin will not even be on their radar.

Many will wish it was.

___
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@teamhumble · (edited)
$0.03
> All the while, many of us are sitting in cryptocurrency. And this could be a saving grace.

you'll need the power on and the networks running for that :) -- but yep, i'm stocking up the supplies! :) great post, reshared. upvoted (still reading btw. ...)
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@tts ·
To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.
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@symo ·
$0.03
All fiat currency has a shelf life, this includes the dollar as it is a fiat-based currency. America continues to print the dollar into infinity constantly diluting is value. No matter what happens the dollar will eventually go the same way as the Reichsmark. Bitcoin is global which weakens the effect and control any country has over it. It's only a matter of time before currency becomes global and is not restrained by geographical regions.
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@preparedwombat ·
$0.03
![666C2095-6AB5-48FC-922E-A9A9131EB970.gif](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaHCqfR9LyEx3HsS3SJPSwCHx7kXLQgd1yBBmrRs8siVQ/666C2095-6AB5-48FC-922E-A9A9131EB970.gif)



https://www.peakprosperity.com/overdosing-on-crazy-pills/

>What matters during an asset price bubble is not the rational, but the rationalizations.
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@yomismosoy ·
$0.03
Greetings, my friend @taskmaster4450... Very interesting and timely your post. When you ask if we are really heading towards a total collapse, I can't help but think of the country where, fortunately and unfortunately, I live, that is, Venezuela. In spite of being going through the biggest economic crisis in our history and, surely, one of the biggest in the world and that can be defined with a very technical but terrible word such as Hyperinflation. The truth is that, as you say, even though there have been localized riots, amazingly people still find something to eat and you don't feel in the streets the sensation of a final collapse. It happens here what you say "Somehow, they managed to prop things up for a decade...". However, in spite of the government tricks, such a system is unsustainable in time. I, for my part, although I am not remotely an expert in cryptocurrencies, I simply connect more and more every day with the economy of the future that began a long time ago. As a professor at a University of the Arts I try to instill in my students the idea that their minds are anywhere the networks allow and that at least they know what all this movement of bitcoins and other bugs is. I recently won a literary contest whose amount, in bolivars, is quite important... Well, I'm not going to let hyperinflation devour my effort, so I'm looking for options in the blockchain... It's very true what you say: "being in cryptocurrency is a great way for people to protect themselves".

>Of course, I'll give my little upvote, resteemit and follow you ;-)
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@jasonshick ·
$0.13
I share a lot of the sentiment here and think crypto is the future. However if panic sets in, how is crypto going to help if the world is not ready to accept it as a viable form of currnecy. If there is a massive crash I think people will start pulling out of crypto short term to trade it in for liquid cash to buy daily products, not the other way around. A global recession would hurt crypto short term but i think long term it would open a lot of eyes.
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@jbgarrison72 ·
That's probably true, although the hope would be that if Weimar level hyper inflation beset the dollar in the last days before a permanent bank holiday that people would start setting the paper aside and transacting for basic needs locally using fungible commodities (incl. silver & gold, beans & bullets), barter, crypto, etc.
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@ew-and-patterns ·
$0.71
I want to give some input on this.
There are basically 3 different counts for the DOW and S&P500 each.
They are pointing to different years for a crash to occur.
1. count says a big (at least 50%) crash will happen within 6 months
2. count says a big (at least 50%) crash will happen in two years.
3. count says a big (at least 50%) crash will happen in 10-12 years.

It is either or and for now, we cannot see a clear favorite count. It can happen anytime now, that is the dangerous part of the late-cycle.
Brexit, EU-disintegration, USD losing reserve currency status or any war escalation could trigger the crash. 

BUT: I think they are going to desperately print money (and even use helicopter money and central banks buying 50% of all stocks...) until even printing money is not gonna push the stock market higher anymore. So I slightly favor the crash in 10-12 years. But who knows...
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@crypto.piotr ·
Hi @ew-and-patterns

It's me again with a small (but perhaps interesting) question :)

Im not sure if you've ever seen this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

USA debt is growing fast. Same with China, Japan, UK, India, France ...  you name it. Italian debt is growing super fast.

However 4 countries like Germany, Poland, Ireland and Portugal are having their debts decreasing. I was shocked when I found out about it yesterday. Any thoughts on that issue? How is it possible that most economies are having their debt growing but there are some countries that do not follow that trend?

Yours
Piotr
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@ew-and-patterns · (edited)
$0.77
Take Germany for example. Germany is not growing its debt for 5 years now. And they are decreasing their debt passively by issuing bonds, those bonds have negative ROI at the moment, so each year, Germany is decreasing its debt by using stupid banks, assurances and big money investors who think that their money is safe in the hands of the German state (total BS by the way, if the euro collapses which it will, those guys will lose all their money invested in those bonds.

That has some good effects, but also some very bad effects.
Yes the debt burden is shrinking which is good, but the liabilities are increasing without people noticing.
Whats negative? Debtors such as greece, italy, spain and portugal are going to default on their debt. - Germany will pay for it.
Banks are going to die - Germany will pay for it.
Italy will leave the EU next, Germany will pay for it because it will likely kill the EU.
The last one on the sinking ship will pay for this mess - this will be Germany.
So the reduced debt will end in the same way as if they would increase their debt by 2000%. They are screwed...
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@ganjafarmer ·
The poor will be the best at managing life after the collapse.  And the ones that stand to survive the easiest... 

But yeah slot of people are not going to make it.  And the world went pretty soft for American people...

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://partiko.app/referral/ganjafarmer)
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@stackin · (edited)
A bad global recession /depression is about to happen within 2 years... probably end of 2020 into 2021. I’ve been prepared haha

However, I see huge opportunity at this time. Everything will be cheap lol
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@cmplxty · (edited)
It’s just a matter of when their market manipulations just stop having an effect, that’s when it will come crashing down and crash hard.

Let’s all hope we are prepared for when that day arrives. 
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@ucukertz ·
$0.09
Stopping market manipulation in cryptocurrency? lol
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@treeplanter ·
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@jbgarrison72 ·
The only thing that makes the US dollar a stronger currency than the rest of them is that it is backed by military enforcement of oil trade reserve status per Breton Woods (as you well know)... I wonder though, if the "economic engineers" haven't actually generated the impending collapse scenario on purpose?

My thought is, they have to see it coming down and all of their manipulations really just amount to being able to choose the hour of doom really. So long as the enforcement of USD as oil trade reserve is maintained, the demand for dollars will always be higher than any other medium of exchange.

So, the bad credit situation and eventual inability to service the interest on sovereign debt, if it led to a default... could only be salvaged through a fiat reset whith "forced" compliance on the global creditors (the "illumined" of which will have already pre-positioned for that event).

You'd need a starving majority population of Bolshevik level dependance on the state for that to go over well... something where the masses are duped into unwittingly demanding the government issue a credit reset (which would destroy anyone's wealth who didn't get pre-positioned for such an event).

Commodities like gold and silver would be these "elites" obvious choice... I wonder about crypto too... I dunno... hard to speculate... but I DO feel like the vultures have long planned for their next feast and nothing is happening randomly from simple "normal market forces."
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@crypto.piotr ·
Hi @jbgarrison72

It's me again with a small (but perhaps interesting) question :)

Im not sure if you've ever seen this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

USA debt is growing fast. Same with China, Japan, UK, India, France ...  you name it. Italian debt is growing super fast.

However 4 countries like Germany, Poland, Ireland and Portugal are having their debts decreasing. I was shocked when I found out about it yesterday. Any thoughts on that issue? How is it possible that most economies are having their debt growing but there are some countries that do not follow that trend?

Yours
Piotr
πŸ‘  
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vote details (1)
@jbgarrison72 · (edited)
That's a good question @crypto.piotr.

I think that the numbers are difficult to interpret because each country has a different circumstance based on how much of its GDP is based on internal vs. external stimuli and it's ability to sustain its GDP... WITHOUT borrowing more (higher debt to GDP ratio is shown to slow growth).

The debt to GDP ratios are important... most countries could easily begin paying down their debt aggressively, what the real problem is amounts to whether or not to curb more borrowing. The reason countries borrow more is so they can spend more... it may be that Germany (aside from the EU) has less of a global empire to maintain and support than the US and so it's economy doesn't need the extra short term boosts that borrowing/printing creates (but the increasing debt from which also works to slow economic growth gradually). I think of it like drinking extra coffee to begin work in the morning, but then being unable to function efficiently once I run out of coffee.

Since Germany seems to need to prop up the rest of the EU (trade wise), it makes sense that they are attempting to pay down their debt, but the unfortunate side effect is that the German people suffer from the austerity of having more of their paychecks being shoveled to pay the debt than say, US citizens have to suffer (for now).

That said, austerity IS a good solution when the problem is luxury funded by debt. There is a further problem here though... the austerity of the Germans is being partly siphoned off to the benefit of the rest of Europe (through lending to bad credit recipients). The details of how the EU pulls this off is beyond my knowledge right now, but the general impression is that if Germany did not have a good credit rating, the other EU states with bad credit ratings would shatter the EU's overall "good status."

EDIT: there's another thing to consider when looking at those debt clock numbers... the debt to GDP ratio of "public" debt, when "paid off" is mostly RETAINED in that country's economy because the domestic lenders then having their reserves reconstituted can turn around and lend more back out... domestically, whereas foreign debt, when paid, does not circulate back into the country's economy and just leaves the country. So... that further complicates how to make sense of how healthy or unhealthy a country's debt situation is.
πŸ‘  
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@crypto.piotr ·
Dear @taskmaster4450

Another great piece buddy. I don't really like to think of myself as a person who is already hedging against fiat. I'm here because I see great potential in blockchain industry, however I would never like fiat monetary system to collapse during our lifetime. 

Such a collapse could bring entire world to it's knees for very long time. Perhaps only kids of our kids would be able to have "normal" life again. 

> Unfortunately, there comes a time when the can cannot be kicked any further. And that is when it is game over.

I thought about it. And my impression is that global programms like building 5G infrastructure or "fight with global warming" could allow central banks and goverments to print enormous amount of new money and push entire growth again. Another few years. 

Would you agree?

ps.
Since you seem to have quite enormous knowledge and experience, would you mind if I ask you to share your own opinion on my latest publication:
"DID OUR WORLD LEADERS JUST PUSH GLOBAL RECESSION AWAY from our doorsteps?"
https://www.steemleo.com/economy/@crypto.piotr/did-our-world-leaders-just-push-global-recession-away-from-our-doorsteps

I would appreciate it greately.

Yours
Piotr
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@crypto.piotr ·
Hi @taskmaster4450

It's me again with a small (but perhaps interesting) question :)

Im not sure if you've ever seen this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

USA debt is growing fast. Same with China, Japan, UK, India, France ...  you name it. Italian debt is growing super fast.

However 4 countries like Germany, Poland, Ireland and Portugal are having their debts decreasing. I was shocked when I found out about it yesterday. Any thoughts on that issue? How is it possible that most economies are having their debt growing but there are some countries that do not follow that trend?

Yours
Piotr
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@partiko ·
Thank you so much for participating in the Partiko Delegation Plan Round 1! We really appreciate your support! As part of the delegation benefits, we just gave you a 3.00% upvote! Together, let’s change the world!
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@steem-ua ·
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