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I am stunned that people continue to consider this pandemic as comparable to the flu.  The folks that do must make almost no attempt to learn more than what is pushed by the enemedia.  Even the laughably low projections from the NEMEC slide are dramatically worse than seasonal flu.  

But that slide, if the low numbers provided are replaced with better estimates, conveys how we can project the consequences of this pandemic for the US.  Given that the doubling time for the infected is less than the 10 days NEMEC estimates, in fact about 5 days, it's likely the R0 is double their estimate, so more like 5 than 2.5.  The community attack rate provided is below actual experience at 30%, and again, double that seems reasonable from prior estimates based on experience, so 60%.  

Cases requiring hospitalization 5%, when China claims 20%, so only a quarter of actual reports.  When considering more severe cases, the dichotomy between NEMEC numbers and real world experience jumps even father from reality to an order of magnitude lower.  ICU is actually 10%, not 1%.  Ventilation is far higher as well, and from all prior reports of real ICU outcomes, less than half those that require ventilation and intensive care recover.

So, we can adjust the NEMEC numbers using real world data, and get realistic estimates.  At least half the communities affected will be infected.  10% of them will require ICU care, and less than half of those will survive.  The US has more than 300M people, but we'll use round numbers to make the math easy.  150M * 10% = 15M people in ICU, and no more than half of them will recover, leaving over 7M people that will not recover - and this is if all those people get ventilators, which they will not as beds fill.

So, putting real numbers in place of the NEMEC fantasies gives a realistic picture of between 7.5M - 15M dead in the US alone.

It's hard to imagine folks that still think of SARS2 like the flu not losing it when the truth finally penetrates their awareness.  They will become unruly I expect, angered at the enemedia they will blame for their ignorance.  On top of the economic disruption this will exacerbate the government's imposition of martial law, driving more pronounced restrictions on civil liberties and particularly freedom of speech.

Steem takes on a far more vital role in our ability to understand what is really happening in the world when police states are engaged in an orgy of repression of factual information regarding existential pandemic.  The divergence from reality evident in China, with the government claiming to be back to business as usual and mandating factories reopen while those reporting for work are dropping dead on the factory floor will be just as dangerous as pandemic itself, because it will cause susceptibility to that pandemic in those prevented from grasping their risk by misinformation.

The enemedia lies, and society dies.  

But Steem isn't the enemedia - yet.  We yet hold off the centralization of our blockchain media platform by Tron, and this continues our censorship resistance while we can prevent the takeover.

The question is, can we hold out two more months while this pandemic progresses and folks can benefit from a source of factual information?

We'll see.  I know we'll do our best, and economic disruption is as likely to impact Tron as other commerce, which will disrupt their attack.  Let's hope for the best, since our lives depend on it.

Thanks!