Down Down We Go – And why that might not be a bad thing by timcliff

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· @timcliff · (edited)
$19.31
Down Down We Go – And why that might not be a bad thing
<img src="https://pixabay.com/static/uploads/photo/2015/08/30/09/49/stock-exchange-913982_960_720.jpg">

I read through @joseph's <a href="https://steemit.com/steem/@joseph/the-history-of-steem-steemit-launch-in-the-words-of-dan-larimer-from-the-early-launch-days">post</a> about the original comments @dantheman made surrounding the launch of Steem/Steemit, and there was one thing I found particular interesting – Dan purposely went out of his way to make it sound unappealing to people that were not willing to put in the time and hard work to understand how great Steemit was. He wanted to recruit people who were willing to work hard, understood the mission, and considered the project amazing enough to get involved with no guarantee of payoff.

They recruited the whales of Steemit by finding dedicated people who believed in the project enough to invest their own resources - whether that be in time, technical expertise, mining resources, money, etc. - in order to make the Steemit project a success **before there was any proof that it would be successful**. These are the people that currently hold all the power. These are the whales, and they put in a lot of work/effort/time/etc. to get to where they are - before anyone else believed in the project.

Now they have moved on to recruiting the dolphins. For everyone that complains about the whales having most of the power - how many would be willing to invest as much as the original people did, with little evidence that all your hard work and investment would pay off? Would you be willing to spend hours writing articles and curating content, just to earn hundreds of Steem that <em>might someday</em>&nbsp; be worth something?

Well, the community of Steemit may soon be put to the test. The price of Steem keeps falling, and the amount of liquid Steem being sold continues to grow. There do not seem to be enough heavy investors willing to put in the kind of money that is needed to stabilize the price – let alone change it enough to start going in the upward direction.

Steem seems to be going down, and pending a major trend reversal, it will probably get much worse before it gets better. I know nobody wants to hear this, but that is what we are facing. 

Is that actually a bad thing though?

Ask yourself the question – <em>When you powered up, were you looking for a short-term gain, or a long term investment? </em>&nbsp;I know almost everyone here would have answered the latter, because we are all here for the long-run. Two years is a very long time. We need to stop looking at where the price is heading in the next 3-6 months, and start looking at where it will head in the next 2-3 years.

The price might continue to fall for the foreseeable future. If it does though, here is what I predict will happen:
1. The people who do not really see the long-term potential of Steemit, and are only here to earn a quick/easy buck will leave.
2. The people that stick around will focus more on producing quality content and building a following, because the temptation to post or curate just to earn easy money will be gone.
3. A lot more people will be able to buy a large amount of SP with only a few hundred / few thousand dollars, giving them a significant stake in the system.
4. The community will do a significant amount of soul searching to identify the main issues that are causing the price to go down.
5. The community will turn into a core group of people who still think Steemit is amazing - even if they are not making thousands of dollars a day, and will drive the project to where it needs to go in order to succeed.
6. 2-3 years from now, the people who stuck around will be the new dolphins, and will be able to upvote content for more than 1 cent when the price of Steem goes back up.

Regardless of whether the price of Steem goes up or down, I see the dev team and community continuing to evolve the site over the next 2-3 years, making it significantly better than it is today. Eventually Steemit will get to the point that it is ready to officially launch, and be ready to scale to millions of happy users. Once we get to that point, then the price of Steem will naturally follow – and then Steemit will be ready to take over the world =)

So, ask your self the question: <em>Are you someone that believe in the Steemit project so much, that you will stick with it for the next 2-3 years to make it successful?</em>&nbsp; Because the people who answer 'yes' to this are the ones who deserve it, and the ones that will ultimately earn the title of "Steemit Dolphin".
<img src="https://pixabay.com/static/uploads/photo/2015/11/24/12/07/dolphin-1059895_960_720.jpg">
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@whatsup ·
As someone who has been on the site for nearing a month.  So, far all I have invested in time and investigation.  Before I invest in something I try it out.  I do Due Diligence.  

I ask myself if the project is running close to the business plan, in this case, the White Paper.  I ask myself who else is investing or divesting.   I look at how satisfied the current users are if there is any stickiness, can my users just up and leave? I ask myself if there are corrections to be made, are they being made.

Mostly....  More than anything, I look at Leadership, how are they adding to the future.  (my investment is future, whatever they did in the past is not my issue)

What I wish would happen is the leaders who can steer this thing would get in a  room,  (either virtual or real)  and discuss solutions...  Create a path, message on timing, changes and reasons, then give updates on how these things are going.
Right now, I can invest in Steem or Craps.  At least in Craps I know the odds.

*When I am talking about Investment.  I mean money.  I don't mind throwing some time into this.

What is troubling to me isn't that there are problems, it is there does not seem to be strong leadership to lead us through the issues.
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vote details (5)
@timcliff · (edited)
$0.12
I disagree about your take on the leadership. The leadership (i.e. @ned, @dantheman, the whales, and the developers) are actually very engaged with the community and doing a lot to improve the site. It is still in the very early (beta) stages. This can be seen in the various posts and community discussions that they are participating in. I recently did a series of posts <a href="https://steemit.com/steemit-ideas/@timcliff/the-steemit-wish-list-a-comprehensive-list-of-enhancement-requests-from-the-steemit-community-v1-1">here</a> about a lot of the enhancements that the community wants done with the site, and I got @ned to upvote one, and @dantheman to upvote another. Also, @theoretical (one of the lead developers) upvoted the post and spent a lot of time replying to and upvoting comments that people made. There are a lot of people working very hard to make this project succeed. There is a lot that needs to be done though, and significant changes take time. Discussions also take place in a lot of informal was (through posts/comments, Steemit chat, etc.) and a lot of things happen behind the scenes.

The part about it being a gamble has some truth to it though. Despite everyone's best efforts, the site/project could still crash and burn. There are a lot of things that could go wrong. The main point of the article though is that there are going to be people that see the potential in what the site could (and hopefully will) be someday, and these will be the people putting in significant time/investment in the early stages not knowing for sure whether it will pay off. These will be the people with significant stake in the site if it eventually becomes what it has the potential to become.
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@whatsup ·
$0.13
I didn't say they were not involved.  I said, I wish they had a strong message of the path we are on.  I said nothing bad about them at all.

What I said is we need strong leadership to carry this through Beta and further.  What I mean by that is someone saying.  Yes, the price is going down...   Yes, we have user adoption issues, but here is what we are doing about it. A stong leadership message would be really helpful.  (with a plan) Such as:  We are going to add/change the following features and these are our first issues to address.   With (however many devs we have)  We think this might be done by this time, and that might be done by.  I am not sure who's post you read.  I never said, nor do I think they are uninvolved.

Right now they have the investment and they hold the Steem.   That Steem will be slipping in numbers for them as much as for us.  So, it is in everyone's best interest for us all to realize the potential.
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@instructor2121 ·
$0.36
All in here. I'm having a blast everyday doing something I love to do!

Great post!!
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@jennsky ·
So you think it would take 2-3 years to make dolphin? I'm not sure I would agree with that. Some have done quite well. I sense you are concerned with an exodus, which I suppose could happen. I'm not sure I follow your call for loyalty, or where it comes from or why it is deserved. Steemit has done very very little for the majority of its users, and from the posts I read users feel disconnected not included. Me- I am a wait and see.
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@timcliff · (edited)
$0.12
That's not exactly what I'm saying. Sure, people are being successful right now without spending 2-3 years. The site could also go mainstream in a matter of months. A lot of things could happen. My main point is that there are going to be people that are passionate about the site and will stick with it through thick and thin. (A lot of people that are here now and becoming dolphins by making hundreds / thousands per post, might not stick around if their posts started making only 2-3 dollars.) The people who really believe in the site/project and are willing to work on it (regardless of how much they are making in the short term) are people that can/should and hopefully will bubble up to dolphin status. <em>If</em> &nbsp; the price of Steem continues to fall, then these would be the types of people that would stick around.
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vote details (3)
@ibringawareness ·
$0.12
Yes, one of my first articles details why I would still be here even with no financial incentive. A free blog, with no ads, is a gift to me. It solves  I web hosting problem I had before I ever even heard of Steemit. I planned on sitting what I have and buying more anyways, precisely for the long-haul, while believing that ultimately millions of people would be here, and our "pennystock"would eventually skyrocket.
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@timcliff ·
Yes, exactly. There have been a lot of good posts on this subject, and I totally agree. The authors that have the attitude that the price does not matter, and just enjoy posting content because they like doing it and appreciate the engagement they get with the community, will have what it takes to weather through any 'price storm' and continue to contribute to the community regardless of the price. Thanks for taking the time to read and comment :)
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@ibringawareness ·
Yes thank you for the great article and perspective.
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@smooth · (edited)
$0.13
> When you powered up, were you looking for a short-term gain, or a long term investment?

When I powered up, I understood it was a 2-year commitment. I did not expect to be criticized or penalized for not implicitly making that into a 3- or 4- or 5-year commitment. Two years is long enough. That does not mean I will necessarily power down and sell all my SP over two years and leave, but it does mean that I do not like the attitude that many have that those of us who powered up early are doing something wrong by powering-down now (which is actually 95% of us, whether we are out here visible and interacting with others or not; most are not).

I have powered back up tens of thousands of SP that was powered down and this was always a voluntary "re-up" for another two years. Whether I continue to do this will depend on my confidence level in whether this platform is a good place to lock up money for another two years. The investor-hostile attitudes I see being expressed by many in the community (not you) along with the sorts of investor-hostile proposals that are coming from the team do not generally encourage me to do so. I will keep an open mind though, as I always try to do.
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@timcliff ·
$0.53
I agree. I have read your comments about how whales powering down and selling is not a bad thing, and I totally agree. I think there is a (real/justified) fear that the price of Steem is going to go to zero, which is why people don't like the fact the price is going down.

I feel that if the site/community is vibrant/healthy and continuing to improve, that there will always be a demand for Steem - especially if the price is lower. I thought a lot about it and almost feel that a significant price drop would be good, in that more people who want a large stake will have the opportunity to buy in.

Thanks for taking the time to read my post and comment!
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@etcmike ·
$0.90
In my opinion you are a smart investor because you understand the STEEM system and the (2 year) commitment you made when powering up. 

I wish every new person had the same understanding of the STEEM system, the rules of upvoting, and the commitment it takes not only in terms of the 2 year commitment but the time to produce quality content.  And that is not to say that any quality content will immediately be recognized.  There is also the commitment to consistently create quality content to find the audience and niche on SteemIt.

Many new users look at the "trending" page and immediately think dollar signs.  Not realizing that like in life there is no guarantee of instant success and sometimes the payouts are small.  As in life, SteemIt rewards the investment over time.  Dedication and commitment do payoff, even if the only payoff is in building character.

When instant success is not achieved the discussion quickly breaks down into the "haves" versus the "have nots".  Sorry, life is not fair, no matter how many rules and regulations may be imposed.  But life is what you make of it.  And it is that way on SteemIt, it is what you make of it.

Most people want a fair market.  The best fair market is also a free market where winners and losers are not predetermined by decree; where everyone has a chance at success.  Success is determined by commitment, dedication, and investment, but success is also not guaranteed.   In a free market there is always a risk/reward ratio that each person needs to understand.  Just like understanding the STEEM system and SteemIt.

The STEEM system and SteemIt while building a community are also building an economy.  In life, those who have been participating in the economy for long time may look successful to those just starting out.  In most cases their success was not instant success.  But to some just starting out they may say "I want that" without realizing what makes a successful person.  They are only seeing the end of success, not all the failures, commitment, and hard work it took to get there.

In my opinion @smooth understands this.  And I for one applaud @smoth's diligence , success, and continued success.  We can all learn from @smooth's experience.

Steem on,
Mike
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@pulpably ·
$0.13
The observation that "the community of Steemit may soon be put to the test," seems necessary to address, right now.  There are times, like the Project Curie post, when I feel like I see the community, but the conversations that led to that particular initiative happened somewhere else. In chat? 

I read and comment a lot, but there doesn't seem to be much interest in discussion. Every time I post an article, I experience an emotional crash when I realize it's not connecting or generating conversation. It makes me feel like  I'm failing at joining this community. That so many seem to owe wild success to having contacted whales and begged for attention makes me wonder if it's a community that deserves the hard work of serious writers.

Unrelated to the idea of financial investment, how do we build strong enough conversation and community here to compensate for the sense that real connection is valued less than a typed up a twist on a recipe? What am I missing?
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@timcliff · (edited)
$0.12
The lack of attention that the minnows currently are getting is probably Steemit's biggest unresolved issue at the moment. This is a large discussion in of itself, and I probably won't be able to tackle it here much better than has been done in lots of other posts. There are a **lot** of discussions going on right now on ways to improve this, and members of the community are doing a lot as well (project Curie, @robinhoodwhale, etc.).

I will add my own theory to the mix, in risk of opening a huge can of worms - and state that the site is not truly ready for minnows yet. It is still in its early / beta stages, and I think (my personal opinion) that they are more focused on distributing the power to dolphins and growing the infrastructure of the site right now - than adding the parts that are necessary for the minnows to succeed. 

Where does that leave the minnows for now? Well, basically keep engaging. If you are commenting on posts like you did here, and continuing to create interesting posts, then over time you will generate followers. Eventually you will (slowly) get more people that you are connected with, which will help your posts get more viability. I've been posting a lot on this site, and most of my posts don't make much money. I notice a lot of people engaging with me though, which I find fun - so that is the main thing that keeps me going.
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@whatsup ·
I signed up originally to invest.  The minnow experience is also your potential investor experience.
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@pulpably ·
$0.13
Thank you for this thoughtful response! It makes sense that the site is not truly ready for minnows. The exciting conversations are largely around how to improve Steemit, itself. I've had some resistance to investing in the knowledge base it would take to truly add to those discussions, since I'm more likely to contribute better in other ways. It does feel good to know that there are lots of discussions about how to help minnows participate. People will invest if they're connecting. Great conversations are the success I'm after. Thanks again for taking the time to boost my spirits. :)
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vote details (2)
@puffin ·
$0.12
Good read! Thanks for that. You article landed in the headline of todays "The Steemians Post" 
https://i.imgsafe.org/15ece68a92.png
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@timcliff ·
Awesome, thanks! =)
👍  
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@jasonxg ·
Steem is cool. Im new but im loving it. The quality is high here and i plan to stay for years as a long term investment. Also having followers can create external revenue not just revenue strait from steemit.
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@professorx ·
This post comes at a right time for me. I have felt a little disillusionment, especially as the price of Steem has gone down. But I never looked at Steemit in the frame you presented. First, the concept of  the loss of users being a good thing as it will lessen the chaff and bring to surface dedicated users (future dolphins) is something that I can relate to. Where Steemit will be in 2-3 years is the big question that these future dolphins will understand, as they will have stuck with the site for that long (if it makes it, which I believe it will).  Gaining followers is actually a bit of a steady process. In the last month that I posted heavily versus the current month of non-posting, I gained followers throughout the whole time pretty consistently. This tells me that people are still reading articles much longer after they are published... they are just not upvoting them. I really don't see how this will stop... in 2-3 years, I will have the same amount of followers as some high reputation content creators, even if I do not post every day.  The second point made in the comments section is that the site is in beta and not built for minnows yet. This is another idea I can relate to. It puts everything in perspective. If I stick to it, in 2-3 years when the site is built for minnows and I am a dolphin, my contributions will be highly valued. It is helpful to see the beta in a different light... first whales, then dolphins, finally minnows.
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