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Some political scientists and respectable citizens follow them with two gross errors. 

 The main political world trend is democratization, humanization and liberalization

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  In the first case, they claim that there have already been a lot of citizens' speeches in Armenia, but they were not successful.

  The point is that the political process is not a one-time action, which either failed or failed.  This point of view is more correlated with the reflex of Pavlov's dog.  The lamp lit up, the saliva did not go, the people did not seize power, everything was lost. 

 In fact, every speech of citizens creates a new reality for everyone, including for the authorities.  It changes and adapts.  On the surface there are always retaliatory repressions, which everyone sees.  But the panic of terror power always hides deep in itself. 

 After all, everyone who has seized power in the country without democratic mechanisms of succession of power in civilized countries knows that in any subsequent speech of citizens it is possible to repeat the fate of Ceausescu and other figures with a rating of 70+.  

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Therefore, the government does everything to avoid subsequent speeches.  In Russia there were superfluities from hydrocarbon rent, here they were always filled with discontent with money.  In Armenia, there was no such opportunity, and we had to gradually move forward step by step to meet citizens and share a little bit of power, which strengthened the formal institutions. 

 Here these for a little bit during a long time very much change those restrictions, which the authority imposes on itself.  Twenty years ago, it was possible to arrange a blood bath, 15 years ago, a war to divert the attention of citizens, 10 years ago, local police reprisals, accompanied by repression, but today these opportunities have been limited.  That is why Serzh Sargsyan left on his own feet.

  Elites are always against change

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 The second grossest mistake is the thought that for the revolution we need not only the rise of the people, but also the split of the elites.  A breakaway piece of the elite supposedly should lead the people to overthrow the hated regime or take advantage of its weakening to seize power.  

This theory was relevant in the agrarian era and was popular two hundred years ago, but in the minds of some people in the post-Soviet space got stuck for a long time. 

 The fact is that in the agrarian epoch the agrarian elite preserved in their circle educational opportunities, the ability to perceive information based on the real state of affairs and make managerial decisions, including on controlling population for the extraction of land rent. 

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 Since then, the situation has changed terribly, not only has education become more accessible, so also social networks have drowned the brains of people in the vast ocean of information.  There was an unbearable contradiction: the population saw that the elite use it as a feed base for enrichment through management systems and an intolerable inability to change this situation. 

 The people can not take part in the government of the state, because all democratic institutions are imitative.  Such a breakthrough through the matrix into the real world will lead anyone to the street. 

 Elites always want to maintain their status quo and will never go on their own to any reforms and changes, so it threatens the built-up management system of the fodder base.  Any elite creates for itself a beneficial circle.  She invests money in political capital, pushes relatives and controlled individuals into various institutions of power, bribes politicians.  

The emerging power is used to make managerial decisions to destroy competitors and monopolize markets to obtain monopoly rents, which are again invested in political capital.  So different clans and / or criminal groups capture all resources and assets in the country. 

 Preventing private initiative and creative destruction, they create a rut of poverty for the population and a rut of accumulating wealth for themselves.Even if a change of the elite occurs as a result of wars, revolutions or other collisions, immediately the situation of unfair inequality is reproduced, now other scoundrels seize resources, assets, fodder power seats.  

Tasks of the opposition in Armenia

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 The main task of the opposition in Armenia is to block the power of the elites, otherwise the whole system of unworthy power will be reproduced again.  To do this, it is necessary to make the basic managerial posts immediately elective.  Judges, the prosecutor, the mayor, the city police chief, deputies of the city assembly should be chosen by the population so that it is impossible to appoint controlled people from one clan. 

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 The same applies to national institutions - parliament, prime minister, supreme judges, finance minister, head of the central bank and so on.  It is very important to make public television out of citizens' taxes, other channels controlled by various elitist groups should be banned, the leader of the channel must also be chosen by the population.  Without an independent fourth power, it is impossible to carry out reforms. 

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 Elections should be held with the help of a detachment to eliminate the possibility of damage to democratic institutions.  I wrote about this in other posts.  These reforms are aimed at creating inclusive institutions for the distribution of power over a multitude of centers unable to individually seize power.