![53.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmc6EV23nsvTPMvp38JmAgh9q3PFvufuY1trx4bGxCWBsN/53.png) 热闹了2年的虚拟币市场,终于露出了明显的疲态。 盛极则衰,物极必反,阴阳交替,自然之道也。 没有只涨不跌的市场,也没有只跌不涨的市场。 正如2年前,当btc徘徊在1000美元左右的时候,进场看多是顺势而为一样,如今的虚拟币市场,逢高减仓,并逐步清仓,自然是顺大道的行为。 如果现在还有人强烈看多btc,认为btc永远不会有大的较长时间的回调,呼吁进场,除了那些真正的坚信btc总有一天会到50万美元的死忠们外,不是别有用心者,就是人傻钱多,不知进退者。 尽管,有很多的时候,傻一点,往往能成就不少的好事;但有几个人能熬过秋天和冬天,又有几个人能最终迎来红红火火的夏天呢?绝大多数的人,要么倒在了严寒的冬季里,要么被埋葬在了新一轮牛市启动初期万物萌动的春天里! 要想在这个市场生存下去,识阴阳,知进退,审时度势,见机而作,方为上上策。 **一、监管政策持续收紧:上涨的天时不再)** 随着比特币价格创出一轮轮新高,并带火区块链技术,新的造富神话在市场中迅速蔓延。无数的衍生币种借ICO充斥市场,推动了虚拟货币的发展壮大,但随着行业的日益发展与投资环境的复杂,自带证券化属性的ICO受到了国内外监管层的重点关注。 从国内看,8月24日,国务院法制办在其官网公布了《处置非法集资条例(征求意见稿)》,其中提到以"虚拟货币"名义筹集资金的将可能面临非法集资行政调查。8月29日,《第一财经》从某区块链技术企业负责人处获悉,证监会正在向部分区块链企业就ICO项目征询意见,研究如何出台规范措施。目前证监会尚处于收集意见和讨论的阶段,对于那些打着虚拟货币的名义进行传销诈骗的ICO项目,证监会表示尤为关注。8月30日,中国互联网金融协会也发布《关于防范各类以ICO名义吸收投资相关风险的提示》,在该提示中,中国互联网金融协会指出,国内外部分机构以ICO名义从事融资活动,其中涉嫌诈骗、非法证券、非法集资等行为。 从国际上看,截至目前,包括瑞士、新加坡、英国、俄罗斯、美国等在内的世界主要发达国家陆续出台了 ICO领域监管办法和措施。尽管各国对ICO代币性质的界定有所不同,但制定出台一些关于ICO产品众筹的特殊限制,从根源上来限制监管代币在各大交易所流通交易的政策无疑是大势所趋。 长期看,监管层的严格政策监管虚拟币交易和ICO市场,给具有实力的大型企业和创业公司提供了崛起的最佳时机。但政策出台前及落地后的很长一段时间里,虚拟币市场的大震荡,大调整实是在所难免。虚拟币价格回归之后的价值再发现肯定不是短时间内能完成的。对此,每一个虚拟币市场的参与者都应有清醒的认识。 **二、虚拟币ICO近期已经风光不再:上涨的人和不再** 与ICO后一上交易所动辄就暴涨几十、几百倍的火爆场面相比,近一、两个月的ICO市场各方参与度和参与热情明显有所降温,尽管也曾出现分秒内即完成ICO的情况,但大多数的代币在上市交易的时候,总体涨幅已大不如从前,有的甚至出现了破发的情况。而监管政策的陆续出台,将会进一步遏制市场参与者的热情,人们将会逐渐趋向理性,市场将会慢慢冷却下来。 北京时间9月2日晚间,中国首家比特币交易平台——比特币中国在其官网上发布公告称,该交易平台即日起暂停ICOCOIN充值与交易业务,并将于北京时间2017年9月3日星期日下午6点暂停ICOCOIN提币业务。结果,一纸公告引来恐慌一片。 秋风乍起,冬天还会远吗? **三、BTC12345的日K线上涨周期走势结构已经完美:上涨的地利不再** BTC的走势是虚拟币市场的风向标。 几周前曾对BTC的未来走势做过一些分析,当初曾推测BTC在25000元人民币左右完成最后巽5浪的上升从而进入一个较大级别较长时间的调整。谁曾想BTC竟一路凯歌高奏,直冲到昨日最高32000元以上才止住脚步。 而这一冲,彻底耗尽了BTC做多的动能。从而结束了大、小周期上,巽5浪的上涨。 随后的一根标志性的大阴线明白无误的宣告了一轮新的较大较长调整周期的到来! ![50.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUsitUuE1oscd3oE4UgzkUpppFVqhLftkrYDbuEPzq5yV/50.png) 上图是日K线周期上12345完整5浪的上涨。 ![51.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmWLirzMrw8gcMBpjQfsLCrnjXtQ6XaJqE9kwDoLqFqcwi/51.png) 上图是4小时周期上,一个完整的12345的上涨构成了日线周期上巽5浪的上涨。 未来,我们所要考虑的则是,从现在开始的这轮下跌调整,是以12345的模式展开,还是以54321的模式展开;但下跌刚刚开始,无论最终市场确定是以哪种模式展开,并不影响整体的操作思路,那就是摒弃多头思维,逢高做空为主,绝不在高位做多。不能做空的,最好的选择自然是清仓后观望看戏了。 当然,在经过一段时间的调整后,会出现一些逆势走强的品种,是否进场操作及如何操作,只能到时根据具体的走势结构等情况随时判断了。 这轮开始的BTC调整的终极目标,我依然看到10000元人民币左右,第一目标应在20000元左右。时间以年计吧~~~ 昨天还涨得轰轰烈烈,今日就跌得凄凄惨惨。 原来的上涨是建立在:天时、地利、人和的基础之上的,目前来看,上涨的天时、地利、人和,都已不再有;相反的,一切的因素现又都有利于下跌调整,行情由上涨转为下跌实在是再自然不过的事情了~~ 这真是:萧瑟秋风今又是,换了人间。
post_id | 11,801,550 |
---|---|
author | wnh518518 |
permlink | itcoin |
category | cn |
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created | 2017-09-03 04:09:36 |
last_update | 2017-09-03 04:28:15 |
depth | 0 |
children | 9 |
net_rshares | 4,615,408,804,935 |
last_payout | 2017-09-10 04:09:36 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
total_payout_value | 13.884 SBD |
curator_payout_value | 4.082 SBD |
pending_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
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root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
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author_curate_reward | "" |
voter | weight | wgt% | rshares | pct | time |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
roelandp | 0 | 38,347,606,607 | 1% | ||
arcange | 0 | 30,567,948,764 | 10% | ||
raphaelle | 0 | 5,486,686,308 | 10% | ||
joythewanderer | 0 | 64,239,706,561 | 51% | ||
waxman | 0 | 138,092,330 | 100% | ||
luneknight | 0 | 2,473,504,963 | 100% | ||
bring | 0 | 2,549,756,014 | 100% | ||
timool | 0 | 1,460,354,790 | 100% | ||
lagisnotgood | 0 | 238,524,326 | 100% | ||
ygern | 0 | 11,155,716,505 | 61% | ||
bayan | 0 | 429,199,534 | 100% | ||
popol | 0 | 430,582,207 | 100% | ||
gaussboy | 0 | 448,992,477 | 100% | ||
seledkka | 0 | 423,919,874 | 100% | ||
sitro | 0 | 434,651,846 | 100% | ||
forumen | 0 | 440,173,327 | 100% | ||
hammadakhtar | 0 | 1,329,182,871 | 10% | ||
htliao | 0 | 3,331,731,663,088 | 20% | ||
andreyson | 0 | 537,221,926 | 100% | ||
wnh518518 | 0 | 26,460,179,235 | 100% | ||
kapriz | 0 | 503,285,400 | 100% | ||
break9 | 0 | 521,733,985 | 100% | ||
johnliao | 0 | 3,791,599,003 | 100% | ||
linuslee0216 | 0 | 1,036,056,302,711 | 5% | ||
viralcutz | 0 | 137,841,467 | 2% | ||
dozhdik | 0 | 2,470,678,813 | 100% | ||
rootingrobert | 0 | 325,885,757 | 11.34% | ||
neverxpected | 0 | 370,504,830 | 100% | ||
monec | 0 | 624,353,311 | 100% | ||
everrich | 0 | 542,296,489 | 100% | ||
andrey1993 | 0 | 508,480,277 | 100% | ||
davidzack | 0 | 380,490,556 | 100% | ||
academix87 | 0 | 2,745,216,196 | 100% | ||
vorneade | 0 | 449,152,000 | 100% | ||
fr3eze | 0 | 28,201,765,329 | 100% | ||
leogor1234 | 0 | 3,431,884,046 | 100% | ||
serguev | 0 | 508,006,400 | 100% | ||
ynele | 0 | 430,566,400 | 100% | ||
rakhi | 0 | 934,434,631 | 100% | ||
lichalker | 0 | 501,878,061 | 100% | ||
linakasioy | 0 | 505,009,707 | 100% | ||
lebuhatiers | 0 | 501,811,200 | 100% | ||
buluc | 0 | 499,777,149 | 100% | ||
egoestich | 0 | 508,006,400 | 100% | ||
letoisnich | 0 | 538,046,974 | 100% | ||
elenach | 0 | 504,908,800 | 100% | ||
akonohova | 0 | 500,541,205 | 100% | ||
leantons | 0 | 544,333,842 | 100% | ||
nioretse | 0 | 951,735,091 | 100% | ||
zainuddinibrahim | 0 | 666,807,340 | 100% | ||
redtea | 0 | 703,119,666 | 100% | ||
lenapotach | 0 | 940,120,025 | 100% | ||
eduter | 0 | 2,348,663,835 | 100% | ||
fixatij | 0 | 137,111,486 | 100% | ||
kapot | 0 | 853,066,678 | 100% | ||
viwyc | 0 | 853,066,661 | 100% | ||
reduh086 | 0 | 969,127,497 | 100% | ||
xiaoshancun | 0 | 123,532,164 | 100% |
可能会有回调, 但是不会一直向下, 比特币和股票的分析是不一样的
post_id | 11,802,822 |
---|---|
author | powerfj |
permlink | re-wnh518518-itcoin-20170903t043755970z |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["cn"]}" |
created | 2017-09-03 04:37:57 |
last_update | 2017-09-03 04:37:57 |
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children | 2 |
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cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
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root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD |
percent_steem_dollars | 10,000 |
或许会有所不同。看看,我所理解的分析逻辑是不是适合所有的市场~~~
post_id | 11,803,192 |
---|---|
author | wnh518518 |
permlink | re-powerfj-re-wnh518518-itcoin-20170903t044435813z |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["cn"]}" |
created | 2017-09-03 04:44:36 |
last_update | 2017-09-03 04:44:36 |
depth | 2 |
children | 1 |
net_rshares | 0 |
last_payout | 2017-09-10 04:44:36 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
total_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
curator_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
pending_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
promoted | 0.000 SBD |
body_length | 33 |
author_reputation | 8,317,637,711,026 |
root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
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percent_steem_dollars | 10,000 |
拭目以待,但現在人們投資情緒高漲,說比特幣會跌(甚至大跌)這就像潑冷水一樣,應該很少人聽得入耳。
post_id | 11,803,608 |
---|---|
author | htliao |
permlink | re-wnh518518-re-powerfj-re-wnh518518-itcoin-20170903t045338636z |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["cn"]}" |
created | 2017-09-03 04:53:39 |
last_update | 2017-09-03 04:53:39 |
depth | 3 |
children | 0 |
net_rshares | 0 |
last_payout | 2017-09-10 04:53:39 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
total_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
curator_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
pending_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
promoted | 0.000 SBD |
body_length | 48 |
author_reputation | 468,933,340,012,582 |
root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD |
percent_steem_dollars | 10,000 |
接下來走abc浪調整到20000元左右挺合理的,所以我一個月前有個技術分析帖子也說升到5000美元差不多了。
post_id | 11,803,152 |
---|---|
author | htliao |
permlink | re-wnh518518-itcoin-20170903t044348733z |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["cn"]}" |
created | 2017-09-03 04:43:48 |
last_update | 2017-09-03 04:43:48 |
depth | 1 |
children | 1 |
net_rshares | 0 |
last_payout | 2017-09-10 04:43:48 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
total_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
curator_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
pending_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
promoted | 0.000 SBD |
body_length | 54 |
author_reputation | 468,933,340,012,582 |
root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD |
percent_steem_dollars | 10,000 |
有道理~~~希望在20000元左右完成调整~~~
post_id | 11,803,542 |
---|---|
author | wnh518518 |
permlink | re-htliao-re-wnh518518-itcoin-20170903t045204786z |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["cn"]}" |
created | 2017-09-03 04:52:06 |
last_update | 2017-09-03 04:52:06 |
depth | 2 |
children | 0 |
net_rshares | 0 |
last_payout | 2017-09-10 04:52:06 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
total_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
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pending_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
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body_length | 24 |
author_reputation | 8,317,637,711,026 |
root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD |
percent_steem_dollars | 10,000 |
your post is very nice, full pack of knowledge and very attractive :-
post_id | 11,808,116 |
---|---|
author | saeedshaikh |
permlink | re-wnh518518-itcoin-20170903t062906319z |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["cn"]}" |
created | 2017-09-03 06:29:12 |
last_update | 2017-09-03 06:29:12 |
depth | 1 |
children | 0 |
net_rshares | 0 |
last_payout | 2017-09-10 06:29:12 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
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body_length | 69 |
author_reputation | 95,499,258,602 |
root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
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max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD |
percent_steem_dollars | 10,000 |
Resteemed your article. This article was resteemed because you are part of the New Steemians project. You can learn more about it here: https://steemit.com/introduceyourself/@gaman/new-steemians-project-launch
post_id | 11,886,749 |
---|---|
author | gaman |
permlink | itcoin-gaman-09042017 |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "pysteem/0.5.4"}" |
created | 2017-09-04 03:24:57 |
last_update | 2017-09-04 03:24:57 |
depth | 1 |
children | 0 |
net_rshares | 0 |
last_payout | 2017-09-11 03:24:57 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
total_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
curator_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
pending_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
promoted | 0.000 SBD |
body_length | 210 |
author_reputation | -1,760,173,813,288 |
root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD |
percent_steem_dollars | 0 |
幸好只是少量买入EOS
post_id | 11,929,193 |
---|---|
author | zhengkai |
permlink | re-wnh518518-itcoin-20170904t145501788z |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["cn"]}" |
created | 2017-09-04 14:53:54 |
last_update | 2017-09-04 14:53:54 |
depth | 1 |
children | 0 |
net_rshares | 0 |
last_payout | 2017-09-11 14:53:54 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
total_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
curator_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
pending_payout_value | 0.000 SBD |
promoted | 0.000 SBD |
body_length | 11 |
author_reputation | -23,804,916,731 |
root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD |
percent_steem_dollars | 10,000 |
所以是说九十月的样子喽
post_id | 12,154,657 |
---|---|
author | eduter |
permlink | re-wnh518518-itcoin-20170907t031334964z |
category | cn |
json_metadata | "{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["cn"]}" |
created | 2017-09-07 03:13:33 |
last_update | 2017-09-07 03:13:33 |
depth | 1 |
children | 0 |
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last_payout | 2017-09-14 03:13:33 |
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
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body_length | 11 |
author_reputation | 3,336,824,252,282 |
root_title | "Bitcoin虚拟币的冬天即将来临Bitcoin virtual currency's winter is coming" |
beneficiaries | [] |
max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD |
percent_steem_dollars | 10,000 |