![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/zafrada/qXyhAWZf-image.png)



Real GDP fell at a 31.4% annual rate in the first quarter, but the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for today estimates it will rise at a 35.3% annual rate in the second quarter.

 ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/zafrada/502BTemP-image.png)


 
The Table shows the rise and fall of first so-called "Stimulus Plan" from April to July.  Those who attribute the third quarter to federal "stimulus" (borrowing from Peter to pay Paul) need to explain why the economy was so terrible while the stimulus peaked in April (it ended in July), and why the economy rebounded so smartly in the third quarter when the stimulus plans were gone.   The obvious answer is that many state governments (with federal approval) shut down their economies in the second quarter but most gradually reopened starting in May.   Politicians use the stimulus hoax to try to take credit for the third quarter rise in GDP rather for than the second quarter collapse. But that has it backwards. 

Of course, the economy could not possibly have kept falling at a 31.4% rate for a year, which is what "annual rate" implies.  And of course it can't keep rising at a 35.3% rate either.  But recent data suggested the economy has been slowing, as fact-free journalists claim, the GDPNow model would automatically take that it into account. 

A 35% rise can't begin to make up for a 31% decline because the 35% increase is calculated from a much smaller base.  If you start with $100 and lose 31% you end up with $69; and if you then add 35% you only have $93. 

Does the recovery so far look U-Shaped, L-Shaped or V-shaped? 
Perhaps it will be Q-shaped.   That's when you go round and round in circles until you fall off the edge.