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RE: Steemit Retention Part 2 – Business Intelligence Steemit by paulag

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· @paulag ·
Yes, I have pointed this out in the article
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vote your-acct "paulag" "re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170913t171350592z" 100 true
post_comment your-acct "re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170921t160116400z" "paulag" "re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170913t171350592z" "" "your reply.." "{}" true

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@valued-customer ·
>"therefore : 152k / 358k = .424 x 100  = 42.4%"

But this figure includes those who joined since mid-July.

>"You must keep in mind that 32% of the accounts registered in 2017 have also registered in the last 60%.  This would mean that 26% of accounts registered Between Jan and mid-July are have voted in the last 60 days."

This would seem to be the correct percentage, rather than the calculation above, since it does not include the accounts that joined within the last 60 days.

Except that it excludes the accounts that joined in 2016.

>"There were 118K accounts registered on Steemit in 2016, however only 11k of these accounts (<10%) have voted in the last 60 days"

Which is significantly lower than even 26%.  

My guess is that, excluding the accounts that signed up in the last 60 days, the real retention rate is therefore between 26% and <10%.  Is this correct?
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vote your-acct "valued-customer" "re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170914t015048171z" 100 true
post_comment your-acct "re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170921t160116403z" "valued-customer" "re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170914t015048171z" "" "your reply.." "{}" true

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@paulag ·
I would tend to agree, however the 'official' formula for retention as shown about includes all uses to the end of the period being analysed.
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vote your-acct "paulag" "re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170914t075344338z" 100 true
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@valued-customer ·
Can you provide the number of accounts that joined in 2017 up to mid-July, and the number of them that have voted in the last 60 days?  With that information I can figure the adjusted retention rate.  

Thanks!
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vote your-acct "valued-customer" "re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170914t091716880z" 100 true
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@valued-customer · (edited)
if what we want to know is how many users stay for more than 60 days, accounts less than 60 days old are not useful data to ascertain that information.  No accounts less than 60 days old have stayed for 60 days.

If what we want to know is how many users are inactive for at least 60 days, again, accounts less than 60 days old aren't useful data.  Even if those users are no longer active, they can't have been inactive for more than 60 days.

In either case, including accounts less than 60 days old in calculating 60 day retention rates skews the data, as all the accounts less than 60 days old are 100% retained, and 0% of accounts less than 60 days old have voted for more than 60 days, according to the criteria, simply because they aren't 60 days old yet.

This is why I asked for the numbers excluding accounts less than 60 days old. You provided numbers for 2016, and provided a percentage for accounts more than 60 days old in 2017, but not the number of accounts, so I cannot add the 2017 number to the 2016 number and come up with a total.

Can you please provide the number of accounts for 2017 excluding those that are less than 60 days old?

Thanks!

Edit:  presently, the best calculation of long term retention is the figure you provide for 2016 accounts, as all of them have been accounts for more than 60 days.  This is <10%, and that is the apparent 1 year retention rate on Steemit.

For 2017, the percentage you provided that excludes accounts less than 60 days old is 26%.  I expect the real percentage of total accounts more than 60 days old - the only accounts that can provide relevant data for 60 day retention rate - is somewhere between 26% and <10%.
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vote your-acct "valued-customer" "re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170915t195805976z" 100 true
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@paulag ·
$0.02
you are looking at about 62K accounts in the last 60days
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vote your-acct "paulag" "re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170916t081817352z" 100 true
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@valued-customer ·
So, if we exclude the 62k from both the total accounts, and the accounts that have voted in the last 60 days, we should have corrected for the effect of the criteria.

So 90k/296k = .30 * 100 = 30% overall.  I am flummoxed that this is not between 26% and 10%.  

Can you explain why?

Thanks!
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vote your-acct "valued-customer" "re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170916t145230539z" 100 true
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@paulag ·
$0.01
I would look at that calculation a different way

a) 152-90 = 62  (no of active accounts at end of period  - number of new accounts during period)

b) 62 / 296 = .2094   ( a / no of accounts at start of period)

.2094 * 100 = 20.94%.
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vote your-acct "paulag" "re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170917t222346706z" 100 true
post_comment your-acct "re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170921t160116422z" "paulag" "re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170917t222346706z" "" "your reply.." "{}" true

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@valued-customer ·
Welp, this is why I turn to you for your insights =D  

Thanks much!
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vote your-acct "valued-customer" "re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170918t055514094z" 100 true
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@paulag ·
$0.01
You are most welcome, especially since you had to wait some time for a response from me
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vote your-acct "paulag" "re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-re-valued-customer-re-paulag-steemit-retention-part-2-business-intelligence-steemit-20170918t090029701z" 100 true
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@valued-customer ·
I'd much rather wait for the good stuff than just run with my own incompetence.  You got the goods!
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