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Is it possible to find Bitcoin's intrinsic value? by jrcornel

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· @jrcornel · (edited)
$234.40
Is it possible to find Bitcoin's intrinsic value?
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<h1>https://s26.postimg.org/vldng6d1l/Resized_Image868298-_Bitcoin-_Value.png</h1>
<h1>With Bitcoin falling rather sharply over the past few days, perhaps it is time to make some postulations as to what a Bitcoin <em>"should"</em> actually be worth.</h1>
<p>First, keep in mind that this post in not inteded to base your buying or selling decisions on but more of a fun thing I decided to do based on a couple articles I have read in the past.</p>
<p>This being one of them:</p>
<p>https://medium.com/@dsquareddigest/how-i-guesstimated-the-value-of-bitcoin-in-2014-e64f327753c8</p>
<p>Now that we have gotten that part out of the way, lets dive in!</p>
<h1>The first thing we must consider, does Bitcoin have any use cases?</h1>
<p>Most people might say "nope or yes it does but very little" upon first thought. However, after doing some digging, I can conclusively say that Bitcoin does have one very strong use-case indeed.</p>
<p>That of purchasing illegal goods, specifically drugs.</p>
<p>Now, before I go any further I'd like to point out that I do not support that use nor am I happy that one of my main investments is used for illegal purchases, but keep in mind that the US dollar is also used for many nefarious activities and that doesn't make it in of itself, bad.</p>
<h1>Further more, this same use that is frowned upon by myself and many others is actually what gives Bitcoin the investment a floor, at least potentially.</h1>
<p>You see, if every government around the world were to all of the sudden outlaw Bitcoin and make it illegal to use, there would still be an underlying market that uses it.&nbsp;</p>
<p>By the way we already know that every country won't do that as we have already seen some legalize it as official legal tender and others have allowed taxes to be paid in it, which is basically the same thing.</p>
<p>However, for coming up with a price floor for our model, lets assume that Bitcoin has been made illegal and has no other purpose other than that of the Black Market and purchasing illicit drugs.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Which is a rather large market by the way...</p>
<p>The global drug industry was estimated to be somewhere between $425 and $652 billion USD annually.</p>
<h1>Using that number perhaps we can take an age old equation and rework it a bit to get a reasonable price for Bitcoin, what do you say?</h1>
<p>Lets try using the famous (infamous?!) MV=PT equation.</p>
<p>https://s26.postimg.org/57u63dw95/Screenshot_49.png</p>
<p>It was created by Irving Fisher in 1911 and it was known as the "Equation of Exchange". It is now known mostly as the "Fisher Equation" and is based around the Quantity Theory of Money.</p>
<p>It is actually part of the thought process behind QE that so many countries around the world have been implementing over the past decade or so.</p>
<p>In this equation:</p>
<p>M = Money Supply</p>
<p>V = Velocity of money</p>
<p>P = Price</p>
<p>T = Transactions</p>
<h1>Is it possible that we can use this equation and the information above to come up with a reasonable value for Bitcoin?</h1>
<p>Sorta, kinda, maybe.</p>
<p>In this instance:</p>
<p>M = The number of Bitcoins (just under 17 million currently)</p>
<p>V = For this example we will use 10 as our number (though the velocity of money is rarely a constant)</p>
<p>P = This is the number we will be trying to find</p>
<p>T = Any number between $425 and $652 billion (as those were the numbers given for the illicit drug trade).</p>
<h1>https://s26.postimg.org/l7ctmxsax/Screenshot_48.png</h1>
<h1>Bear with me here as I am going to use some magic mathematical wizardry to get the equation set up in the way we need it to be in order to solve for P.</h1>
<p>Now, if we take MV and multiple them together, we get 17,000,000 X 10 = 170,000,000.</p>
<p>Then lets say we use $500 billion as our drug market number as a conservative number based upon the range we were given, we can then take our reconfigured equation and divide $500 billion by that 170 million number from above.</p>
<p>Which would give us $2,941.</p>
<p>That would mean that in our example if all the illicit drug trade were to be priced in terms of Bitcoin, it would give Bitcoin a price of roughly $2,941 per coin.&nbsp;</p>
<p>With Bitcoin currently trading around $3,800 per coin, that number does't sound all that unreasonable now does it?</p>
<p>Again keep in mind that this number is mostly taken out of thin air, though not entirely, and mostly intended for fun and entertaining purposes.&nbsp;</p>
<p>If nothing else I hope the thought process behind the pricing was interesting to you and perhaps opened your eyes about the possibility of there indeed being a price floor in Bitcoin.</p>
<p>Stay informed my friends.</p>
<p>Sources:</p>
<p>https://www.nolanchart.com/article5583-mvpt-a-classic-equation-and-monetary-policy-html</p>
<p>https://medium.com/@dsquareddigest/how-i-guesstimated-the-value-of-bitcoin-in-2014-e64f327753c8</p>
<p>Image Sources:</p>
<p>https://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-value-altcoins/</p>
<p>http://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/010705.asp</p>
<p>https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins</p>
<p>Follow me: @jrcornel</p>
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@invicid ·
$0.13
Woah! Interesting breakdown of how to determine bitcoin's true value... The question still remains however, does it truly matter what it "should" be valued at? As a speculative investment, the true value and the perceived value rarely meet.
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@jrcornel ·
$0.56
Great point. In the grand scheme of things it means very little, in the here and now, it was kind of fun to think about. :)

Great comment by the way!
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@invicid ·
Thanks, I enjoy your posts man.
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@gryphon ·
3900$ now time to long Ρ…100!
https://www.bitmex.com/register/HJfZyC
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@themystic ·
$0.13
It's 3900$ x 125. Don't ask me how ;)...
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@denmarkguy ·
$0.32
Certainly an interesting approach to valuation.

From observing BTC and altcoins for a while now, "usage" keeps coming up... yet there doesn't seem to be a lot of effort being put into "creating legitimate USAGE" for most coins our there. Everything seems to be looked at mostly in terms of "investment" and "returns." I'm just surprised there aren't more people trying to... "protect"... their investments by *creating a reason* for that investment to exist, in the first place. Strikes me as a bit "house of cards-ish," but maybe I'm missing something?

One of the appeals of Steemit/Steem was precisely the fact that there seems to be the potential for an *underlying economy,* to support the token. Maybe I'm just old-fashioned in terms of how I assess "value," but in order for something to call itself a "currency" doesn't there need to be actual USAGE for it?
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@jrcornel ·
$0.12
Great point. I agree completely. In all the other systems they work great when the price is going up, but completely disappear when the price starts going down, very house of cards ish indeed. Ideally we still need a market for people to actually start transacting in steem... an online "steembay" or something where people exchange goods for steem.
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@denmarkguy ·
$0.03
>an online "steembay" or something where people exchange goods for steem

Maybe it's time to bring that up again... I floated that idea about 4-5 months ago and it seemed to fall on somewhat deaf ears... *although* @steemgigs and @steemshop came along as fledgling initiatives... but I think we need something more robust.
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@juanmallorca ·
All that can be a bubble??
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@jacquelyne ·
AGreed. thanks for sharing :) Also why I like Steemit as it feels sustainable because of it's underlying economy :)
πŸ‘  
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@cyberblock ·
$0.24
Its like trying to find the intrinsic value of the internet in the 1980's.
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vote your-acct "cyberblock" "re-denmarkguy-re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20170913t215801544z" 100 true
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@mickyscofield ·
So true
I agree to this
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@killerspot ·
Like .COM a correction is bound to occur... And then an upward correction.
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@unclewetnaps ·
On Aug 22nd I told everyone who thought they missed the bitcoin surge to buy around $3400, way before the china news, thats the last correction point that was missed, now as it approaches, what to the charts say??? buy bitcoin around $3400-3500 the coins do what they are supposed to do regardless of all the BS
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@algons ·
denmarkguy - Exactly! Value! I'm writing a long article about this. Hope you'll read and will let me know of your thoughts.

PS: I still don't like that the valuation of a currency being made by drugs. I'm hoping that trust and human values are still relevant when it comes to investing
πŸ‘  
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@casinobonusclub ·
Valuable point :)
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vote your-acct "casinobonusclub" "re-denmarkguy-re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20170914t105931504z" 100 true
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@englishtchrivy ·
$0.57
too much numbers make me dizzy 
is it possible? dunno 
but if one things for sure I want to have a lot of em!
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@jrcornel ·
Same here. Especially the cheaper they get!
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vote your-acct "jrcornel" "re-englishtchrivy-re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20170913t191252139z" 100 true
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@englishtchrivy ·
still dipping!
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@steemero ·
$1.85
Is this value based only on Illicit drug market? If you consider other market price will go high. btw great calculations. I never had this idea before :)
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@jrcornel ·
Yes, this is based solely on the illicit drug market. It is basically pricing it as if there were no other use cases or adoptions for the coin
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@greatmorai ·
The illicitness would mean a massive crime across the globe. I believe that just like gold or other pegged fiat currencies. This has come into being but internet based hence its value is realized through  the exchange conversion widely acceptable.
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@vertice ·
Came to say exactly this :)
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@randowhale1 ·
This post received a 4% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @steemero!  For more information, [click here](https://steemit.com/steemit/@randowhale/randowhale-is-now-only-1-steem-sbd-per-vote-spread-the-news)!
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@petpeeves ·
$0.13
Wow, that was a very cool way to break this down. Much better than the guesses being thrown around by pundits or bogus comparisons to the tulip market. This was the best article I saw that dispels the tulip bubble argument.

https://steemit.com/money/@thehutchreport/dimon-is-whistling-thin-air-out-of-his-two-lips-bitcoin-is-not-like-the-tulip-bubble

Oh and thank you for sparing us the complicated details, but I could not resist looking up the complete Fisher version, so here it is also if anyone else wants to see it:

"

MV = βˆ‘ piqj = PT ….(4.1)

where

M = total stock of money in an economy;

V = velocity of circulation of money, that is, the number of times a unit of money changes its hand;

Pi = prices of individual goods;

βˆ‘P = p1q1 + p2q2 + … + pnqn are the prices and outputs of all individual goods;

qi = quantities of individual goods transacted;

P = average or general price level or index of prices;

"
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@juanmallorca · (edited)
You no what ? I don't understand nothing, I have a lot to learn
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@sweecee ·
there is nothing to understand... if @petpeeves had a daughter, she would certainly not be a genius (there is a big truth in this sentence, and if you don't know the quote... enjoy the ride :)).
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@petpeeves ·
Probably not .... but she would pass the chauffeur test. :)
https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/09/two-types-of-knowledge/
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@sweecee ·
Nice to see that you got the quote and the humor ;). I am sure she would, why would she be?
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@juanmallorca ·
I'm simple 1 x 1 = 1 😎
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@sweecee · (edited)
Accounting 101: + - 
the rest is garbage ;).
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@lucidlight ·
Hahahaha.
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@sweecee ·
ahaha against which color is this home for sell?
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@juliusfatai ·
Thank you
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@taskmaster4450 ·
$0.13
Thank you @jrcornel

A very fun exercise.  Of course, you are presuming that 100% of the illegal trade is captured by bitcoin and we both know the USD isnt going to give up that market without a fight. 

Value is basically a social agreement that exists between people.  We agree what something is worth.  At one time, people thought Cabbage Patch Dolls has a value...not it is agreed upon that they dont.  The USD is agreed upon to have value mostly from its backing by the US Government which means something to a lot of people.  That might not always be the case.

Bitcoin, in and of itself, has no value..just like everything else.  In the end though, I think people will turn to this mechanism as a store of value.
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@jrcornel ·
So you caught that, a very big presumption on my part indeed. ;) If Bitcoin were only half of that market you could cut the price prediction in half and maybe that is a better measure. As you can see, there are many variables in this "analysis". Great comment by the way!
πŸ‘  , ,
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@taskmaster4450 ·
I just love when people try to attack Bitcoin by saying that it is used for illegal activities.

What do they think this is?

![5cd973d1-48cd-4d81-8d41-9757a86c7eb5.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdy5bGz7kaUGiMNpRD7GkG5fBFAd7QFPyQux9EDfJztVJ/5cd973d1-48cd-4d81-8d41-9757a86c7eb5.jpg)

There were more drugs bought in the last week using USD than there are bitcoin in existence.  

A truly stupid attack on BTC and defense of the USD.
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@fidingmyway ·
very true!!
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@lydon.sipe ·
$0.10
I was actually expecting that number to be much lower. Around $3,000 per bitcoin just with the illegal drugs use case is an eye opener.
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@jrcornel ·
Yes, but keep in mind that is the entire drug market, not likely Bitcoin captures it all, but it is also not likely that is its ONLY use case. :)
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@lydon.sipe ·
Quite true, quite true. :)
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@outtayourbox ·
An interesting take on price predictions, I think most predictions fail due to the early nature of this complete financial overhaul. 

I wouldn't argue that the Bitcoin's value is intrinsic though, taking a look at spread between exchanges you can see its different subjective valuations :)
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@domcrypto ·
Very interesting post, I often wonder what the real value of Bitcoin could possible be... I loved it!
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@sroka87 ·
$0.13
I think you over-estimate the usefulness of BTC in darknet marketplaces in this moment.  Following the takedown of the largest marketplace, ALphabay, and subsequent sting operation against its short-lived successor, Hansa, the non-anonymous nature of BTC has been seriously questioned by those concerned with op-sec.    Just google Chainanalysis to see how the open ledger is being forensically examined.

Furthermore, the amount of darknet trading is still waaaaay down on what it used to be, as vendors and buyers let the dust settle before leaping back in.   Any new marketplaces that spring up will almost certainly encourage use of anon-coins like Monero, Z-Cash, etc , as these offer far more protection than BTC.

Im not saying that BTC wont still beused for nefarious activities, just that those doing so are idiots.
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@jrcornel ·
Haha good point. Yes those numbers are probably overstating significantly. Also there is no way Bitcoin would capture the entire illicit drug market. Perhaps it might capture 10% though, or 25%? Just adjust the price floor accordingly :)

It is also likely Bitcoin will have many more use cases besides just that of illegal drugs... we can't forget the counterfeit goods markets! ;)
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@ienjoyturtles ·
When people like Jamie Dimon start bemoaning the thing then I know it is something worthy of my attention. The blockchain is the most revolutionary and brilliant addition to the internet since the internet. I don't care what any analysis says, I put my money into things I believe in. This, I believe in.
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@otage ·
That is a very interesting exercise - thanks. However, going one more step, most drug buyers and dealers for that matter are not necessarily tech savvy and probably prefer to use cash for efficiency and to satisfy their fix asap. Also, if unmarked and without serial numbers recorded, cash is even less traceable than Bitcoin and until the big banks like HSBC stop laundering drug money I would add a multiplier of 1% for worldwide drug only BTC transactions. This would bring the floor after a complete ban down to a more realistic base figure of $29.41.
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@schwmm ·
I appreciate your technical approach but I do not agree with Bitcoin's use case.
It is probably its biggest use, yes. But I don't think as much money is involved as you assume.
I think the most money that is in Bitcoin (or crypto in general at the moment) is rather used for trading, investing or as a store of value!

Good post nontheless
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@abdullar ·
interesting post... thanks for sharing good information... ^^
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@yabapmatt ·
I've heard that illegal activities are mostly using more anonymous/fungible currencies like Zcash or Monero...I have no way to confirm if that's actually true, just read it in doing some google searches...but if it is the case then wouldn't that mean there isn't much value in bitcoin from illegal activities but rather the value is in these other cryptocurrencies?
πŸ‘  
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@attalis ·
Funny article. How did you get to the velocity number of 10 by the way? Is it a commonly used value?
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@jrcornel · (edited)
According to what I read, yes. That number is often considered constant, or at least it was initially, but now it has come under much debate regarding exactly how constant that number really is. That was part of the problem why QE didn't initially "work". People stopped spending and started saving...
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@galotta ·
I  support your thesis of digital currencies' market capitalization being intrinsically related to the volume of economical domains in which they are used.
In the same spirit you might (accurately) say that a fiat currency's value is mainly determined by the GDP of countries guaranteeing its value.
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@fproductions ·
Intrinsic value is usually for those assets which have future cash flow. So i think no.
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@jrcornel ·
$0.55
Like gold?
πŸ‘  
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@rizwanjumani ·
Very interesting post
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@connorhcranston ·
i mean isnt the value based on just what we give it, hell people buy shit and air
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@jdruiter ·
$0.08
Interesting idea. 

However.

1. Most drugs trade are done in US dollar
2. There are way more uses for Bitcoin: store of value, currency, remittance, fiat flight, tax evasion etc
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@icarusfortune ·
This.  Plus Bitcoin provides a road map for authorities.  This is a great talking point if you haven't spent the 2 minutes to search "blockchain".  But hey, if people keep posting this FUD, maybe it will become true.
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@galotta ·
$0.10
Can you elaborate on your assumption of V=10 though? Is there some reference or evidence reasoning for this choice? At first glance it seems to be arbitrarily chosen.
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@jrcornel · (edited)
Interesting that you mention that. I was wondering that myself. I first pulled it from the article linked in my post, the exact wording can be read as follows:

"V is the velocity of base money, which is surprisingly constant at 10x for a variety of normal people’s currencies."

Upon reading that I did some googling and I found others used that 10x number in other places when talking about digital transactions as well, IE epayments. 

You could try plugging in different numbers and see what you come up with. I think the velocity of the dollar is somewhere around 1.4X.
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@galotta ·
I guess it represents the average turnover per year (yearly average number of transactions per token/unit) and therefore the effective currency fluidity.
Considering that BTC is to large extent used as an investment vehicle rather than actual means of payment I would estimate the V to be smaller than 10 in this case. But your train of thought remains valid nevertheless.
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@funnystuff ·
Brilliant job! great analizing about bitcoin intrinsic value truely appriciated πŸ‘
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@mimiandriette ·
@jrcornel Thanks for sharing :-)I am following
| 
Best of Luck !.
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@mursin ·
Good
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@cyberblock ·
$0.19
Its funny how the bears come out of the woods every time there's a dip. Same old story over an over for 8 years lol I just keep buying the dips and laughing my way to the bank. Easy money hahahahaaaa
πŸ‘  , ,
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@awakeningartist ·
yo my man!
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@pascalwitzig ·
The way you ask your introductory question ("Is it possible to find Bitcoin's intrinsic value?") you suggest, that there is something like an intrinsic value. However, from a sociologist's perspective, I have unfortunately to disagree. I'm not saying that sociologists get it more "right" than others, but from our perspective, there is no such thing as an "intrinsic value"; *value is a social construct* and value in markets is precisely constructed by means of economic knowledge, such as the fisher equation. The only question is, if market participants perceive this equation as being legit or not. If so, people would act **as if** there was an intrinsic value that can be calculated with that equation. Also see this very interesting book on the topic http://wtf.tw/ref/mackenzie.pdf
πŸ‘  ,
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@algons ·
"Keep in mind that the US dollar is also used for many nefarious activities and that doesn't make it in of itself, bad"

This is not a logical statement. US dollar is used by hundreds of millions of people for billion types of activities; among which unethical activities is just a small percent.

If bitcoin's main selling point is drugs; its value is zero to me and to many investors. It is a problem.

I'm writing a long article about value-based currencies. Anyone who's interested in this topic can follow me.
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@hunter143 ·
i think its possible to know the right value of bit
coin
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@erb ·
Wow this is fascinating. I've been trying to fully understand where Bitcoin gets its value. Thanks for this!
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@coinlend ·
$0.63
test title
Yo ,
Nice work sir
πŸ‘  
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@balkrishna ·
This is the tokens that will grow. Proven by solid ecomomists. For the new exchange on October WCX offers a pro experience with 10x lower fees guarantee , Get yourself 50 FREE tokens!!!  (10 WCX = 1 USD at ICO price), https://wcex.co/?ref=MPCIbEPD
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@yehey ·
BTC value is being the pioneer in cryptocurrency. Read more about Bitcoin here. https://que.com/tag/bitcoin/

Follow me @Yehey
Thank you.
πŸ‘  
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@aliakhtar ·
the cost to mine bitcoin that includes hardware depreciation cost would be base value - https://www.alfaquotes.com/ offers this value but for some reason it is not showing right value.  it used to show graph going all the way back to 2014.  mining cost vs market value.
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@change-4-a-buck ·
why not just use a differnet crypto all together ,,,,maybe a faster and anonymous ?? then BTC goes to zero ...
πŸ‘  
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@eadabrinn ·
@jrcornel thnx for putting this information all with each other..
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@pia-ps ·
Great way to research and analyze bitcoin price. I like it. Thanks!
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@brian.rrr ·
$1.06
Good analysis on the fair value of bitcoin. I agree that US dollars are used for illicit activities so the argument that bitcoin should be shut down for this same reason is dumb. Supply and demand drive a lot of short term pricing so it will be interesting to see if demand goes down at all due to the recent news.
πŸ‘  ,
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@granunic0rn ·
Well anything self-serving interest says is dumb.

I think the demand won't go. Why would people stop using it when they can get it cheaper now?
Demand will change once Bitcoin changes, i.e.: higher / lower transaction fees, faster/slower network etc.
Price won't effect the supply / demand relationship at all in my humble opinion.
πŸ‘  
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@perceived-real ·
I can't help but feel that your missing the entire point of Bitcoin.  While its true a currency must be something you are able to purchase things with A store of value only needs to be fungible enough to transfer in exchange for goods and services or other assets including currency.  There is most certainly a large amount of people invested in Bitcoin for short term speculative reasons and are quick to exit when they get nervous.  However many of us see the intrinsic value of the very limited quantity along with the Immutable ledger characteristic maintained by a large network as what provides the high valuation.  Perhaps if you think of Bitcoin as a bearer bond you might be able to understand the true momentum behind this investment.  With interest rates so low that you actually lose money in savings and Certificates of deposits. With Real Estate and Equities at overvalued levels due to monetary policy.   Things begin to look differently.  The current value means very little to me other than a buying opportunity when it goes lower.    I believe as more people understand this they will come to the same conclusions which will inevitably lead to increased valuation.  The bad press only brings attention to it and eventually people will begin to understand it.
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@peesbi ·
Nice..
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@derz ·
$0.06
I was thinking a price of $100,000. Finite supply, small fraction of people are in it, infrastructure still at its infancy.
πŸ‘  
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@cyberblock ·
$0.26
Ive been telling many people, Im not selling any until 100k. Even though I know it will go beyond that mark.
πŸ‘  , ,
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@essalucina ·
@jrcornel This is actually some incredible function!.
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@unclewetnaps ·
That is the most out of the box, yet realistically accurate approach to finding the price of a bitcoin I've ever seen, mad props
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@davebrewer ·
Interesting thought process and experiment.  Perhaps a significant flaw at the end assuming  that all drug buys are in BTC.   With trillions of USD $100's floating around the world, will be a lot of drug buys with that  currency into the future.

If you assume even 50% of drug buys remain in fiat, then floor under BTC is cut in half.

Would be interested in your thought process on setting a "value" on BTC using some method comparable to how the "value" of gold is determined.

May produce another interesting number as a thought experiment
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@bitcoindata ·
It's a really interesting point of view! But does it really matter the intrinsic value of Bitcoin? At the end all that matters is that many people have chosen it as the way to make comercial transactions, and this people are the ones who will give and take power from it.
πŸ‘  
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@dmschultzy ·
Exactly, money (in it's true definition--not cartel banking definition) doesn't necessary have NOR need intrinsic value.  It's just the medium for the exchange of items that do contain the value.   Money is an accounting method at the end of the day.
πŸ‘  
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@tytran · (edited)
I can add two more use cases people would agree with:
1. Discount shopping
There are a few sites but purse.io is the best example that I can use. It's surprising that many people who are involved in cryptocurrencies are not familiar with this. The three guys I met on Craigslist when I was looking for an ethereum miner did not know about this site.  Assuming purse can get 1% of Amazon's annual sales ($136B in 2016) that's $6.8 billion. With Bitcoin becoming more and more mainstream, I don't see how purse.io can't get to that conservative number.

2. Online sportsbook/gambling
Many sites are now offering bonuses between 20-50% sometimes up to a 100% bonus on your deposit. Granted, you don't get to withdraw this until you fulfill their "rollover requirements" which is typically 20x the bonus amount for sportsbooks. A good sports bettor/investor like myself can make 20-50% on a sports portfolio even without these deposit bonus so these bonuses add to those returns. In 2016, the amount wagered by one sportsbook alone (bet365) is $52 billion. Taking another conservative estimate of 5% of that sportsbook for bitcoin use = $2.6 billion.

Those are conservative estimates from just 2 other use cases.
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@meyrep ·
Anyone who is trying to predict the intrinsic value of a valuable asset like Bitcoin is premature because no one truly knows what the number will be.
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@jasonacacio ·
While we cannot fully ascertain formulaically what the value of an indivdual unit in a blockchain should be (bitcoin or otherwise); after all, this is an exercise in which the market as a whole attempts to discover through the mechanism of price, there can be established a lower bound of how much it would take to produce a bitcoin. [On a paper by Adam Hayes, CFA](http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/econ/2015/NSSR_WP_052015.pdf), he suggests that the cost of the inputs (electricity costs, etc.) to make a bitcoin can be established as a lower bound price floor; a minimum cost if you will, to generate a bitcoin. Similar derivations can be done other mining-based blockchains, but this still does not cover the utility for any of these coins (i.e. how much in terms of dollars is the usefulness of one bitcoin). Your article is an interesting way to value such usefulness, but note that the trades in the economy you specified do not fully happen in bitcoin [as other creative means of exchange have been devised](http://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/).
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@guggerf ·
Interesting thoughts but let's hope there will be much more use case than store of value and drugs.
We are still in the beginning and there is a huge potential!
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@teenovision ·
positive and negative side exists for everything, same is with Bitcoins but it is the positive angle which make Bitcoins great and especial.
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@ehabakhdar ·
Hello @jrcornel
I loved your work, and the way you craft you thoughts coming with BTC price.
I can see some limitations; If we apply the above equation on
gold, I believe we will get a different price than the actual one, if their is one equation that can sole every thing, then our life will be different; through my experience in business price cannot be predicted or judged, it's just like a wave you need to feel it and get on top of it.
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@mskiadas ·
This is very well thought out.  The numbers are plausible.
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@ms1der ·
Start earning extra money today!
bit.ly/Bitpetite-com
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@digitalplayer ·
Bitcoin is paypal evolved
πŸ‘  
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@aris54 ·
Hi my new arrivals in steemit, please follow me, I'll follow you.
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@arcange ·
Congratulations @jrcornel!
Your post was mentioned in the [hit parade](https://steemit.com/hit-parade/@arcange/daily-hit-parade-20170913) in the following category:

* Pending payout - Ranked 4 with $ 252,74
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@dbdecoy ·
Good article, but market doesn't trade on intrinsic value though! And market never lies.
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@photo-moment ·
Nothing has value. We decide what has value and how much is worth. All money has 0 value, it is all illusion no matter what anyone say. All this talk about value is useless because value of money exist only in mind of humans. If we delete all eletronic money and burn all paper money, nothing would happen to this planet. Only humans will be in shock because they are addicted to money and can't imagine life without it. That shows has are we separated from real reality.
πŸ‘  
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@ridwant ·
China controls Bitcoin, really?
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@jawadovic ·
I respect your ideas about this platform.
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@pizzachain ·
$0.03
There are many uses besides the illegal ones. One of them is the reason I like to use Bitcoin: It's an easy way to send & receive money! Paypal required Identity Verification, otherwise there is a chance your account can suddenly be frozen and you won't be able to access your funds untill you've proven that you are who you said you were when you registered. 

And I don't want to give them my identity. It's just not gonna work. Therefore, I really like Bitcoin.
πŸ‘  
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@drotto ·
<p>This comment has received a 3.13 % upvote from @drotto thanks to: @pizzachain.</p>
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@awakeningartist ·
So where does the weapon trade and other major illegal stuff fall in?
πŸ‘  
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@dmschultzy ·
An illicit supply and demand market using any agreed upon medium of exchange that is then used to circumvent government reg....oh
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@dmschultzy · (edited)
The Fisher equation is used for inflation and increasing the money supply, and velocity--isn't that supposed to be how fast it circulates and is spent?  This is why it is near sacred canon for the Fed Reserve.  Most bitcoin isn't spent or used, it is simply an asset being held.  So I don't think this is a 'fair' (whatever that means--just spewing my thoughts) comparison.
Especially when you consider you are trying to compare the dollar (well, federal reserve note--not an actual dollar, despite the common use of the term) to a bitcoin.  Just doesn't make sense in my mind.
Money in its true definition (outside of central [cartel] banking) does NOT need intrinsic value; it is an accounting method to facilitate a transaction of items that DO contain the intrinsic and extrinsic values.   Seems to me that what money is needs to be understood firstly before venturing into comparisons.
Before I get trolled, one of my finance classes used the text written by a former member of the Board of Directors, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis--just pointing out that I'm not totally ignorant of the subject matter.
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@gershon ·
Why would we assume people will use Bitcoin to transact in their illegal transactions over other crypto-currencies like Monero? Further, where does v=10 come from? 

I think the beginning of a theory is here, but what about the relative value of the crypto-currencies? I don't see how you justify Bitcoin having a higher market cap than Ethereum when Ethereum has more transactions. Unless you believe Bitcoin will get de-throned by Bitcoin cash, how does Bitcoin cash have much of a fundamental value?
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@a7mednabi7 ·
Nice bro.it's useful post..πŸ‘ŒπŸ‘
Thanks for sharing✌✌
Best of luck✌✌
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@oldxmarine ·
I'm sorry but your assertions are ridiculous. Linking btc value to drug trafficking makes no sense.Drugs are a cash business and more than that a person to person transaction. Bitcoins use on the "Dark Net" was for much less mundane crimes  such as kiddie porn, sex slavery, weapons and much more that don't need mentioning. You missed the most obvious reason for the use of btc by criminals . The fact that they have to be a little more imaginative than the average pouge. The true value of bitcoin is that it's under your control(not so with money in the bank), it's anonymous,unhackable,theftproof and tax free! The blockchain is going to change the world.
πŸ‘  
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@ashaman ·
Your analysis is missing a key component that is integral to Bitcoin's "intrinsic value." Bitcoin the currency/token is inseparable from Bitcoin the payment network. A key component of its "intrinsic value" is the payment network, so go ahead and ask yourself - "what is a borderless, decentralized, global payment network that allows for the transfer of value without an intermediary worth?" Dividing that by the number of BTC in circulation will be part of Bitcoin's intrinsic value.
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@jawbone ·
This Crypto Currency is quite confusing to me. I am sticking to AG/AU for now,
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@brothermic ·
$0.16
haha very fun calculations! and its true hehe :)
πŸ‘  
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@granunic0rn ·
I think in the real world you cannot really establish intrinsic value of something since that value depends on human reasoning. 

What you perceive as valuable can change depending on your mood and the mood of many people can change failry quickly.

Even if you try to use mathematical sound equations to determine value, people can disagree with these calculations and act irrationally contradicting your consclusion about the price just to piss you off.

One announcement of the government can change the value quickly because economics is in some sense faith based. If people trust the system there is going to be more value in it then if they don't and faith is rather volatile.
πŸ‘  
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@amedeo ·
Yes it's possible
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@thoughtchain ·
Upvoted and Followed. Please followback and please upvote and resteem if you would like to help each other out:  The REAL reason Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan called Bitcoin a "Fraud" (NOT what you've heard elsewhere about wanting to drop the price) a 30-second read: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@thoughtchain/viral-why-jamie-dimon-called-bitcoin-a-fraud-not-what-you-already-heard

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vote your-acct "thoughtchain" "re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20170917t084124693z" 100 true
post_comment your-acct "re-thoughtchain-re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20171125t030739610z" "thoughtchain" "re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20170917t084124693z" "" "your reply.." "{}" true

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@slowblogger · (edited)
I like your work. I just joined Steemit, and just posted my article on Bitcoin's intrinsic value.
- https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@slowblogger/the-price-and-value-of-cryptocurrency-1-is-bitcoin-a-fraud

I also use the equation of exchange. Mine is essentially more refined version of yours, including exchange rate calculation. I think yours will work well enough as a ball-park valuation, and is more practical for many people.
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vote your-acct "slowblogger" "re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20171007t113811561z" 100 true
post_comment your-acct "re-slowblogger-re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20171125t030739611z" "slowblogger" "re-jrcornel-is-it-possible-to-find-bitcoin-s-intrinsic-value-20171007t113811561z" "" "your reply.." "{}" true


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