Crypto Academy / Season 4 / Week 1 - Homework Post for professor @sapwood | Onchain Metrics by beckie96830

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Crypto Academy / Season 4 / Week 1 - Homework Post for professor @sapwood | Onchain Metrics
<div class ="text-justify">
Hello everyone, a warm welcome to week 1 of this season's lesson series. The lesson taught by professor @sapwood discussed Onchain Metrics and their practical application in analysis. In this post, I will be responding to the assignment given.

<center>![iMarkup_20210906_210358.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX4N8D7HJo8oudWiGkdgRtCHSDbhUnwq8PW6TkqzCm7h7/iMarkup_20210906_210358.jpg)</center><center><sub>Image was designed with PowerPoint</sub></center>

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#### <center>Question 1</center>
###### What is a HODL wave, how do you calculate the age of a coin(BTC, LTC) in a UTXO accounting structure? How do you interpret a HODL wave in Bull cycles?

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##### HODL Wave
The HODL Wave is a type of on-chain metrics that uses a color scheme chart to provide a macroeconomic view on supply and accumulation of crypto assets and also indicate the ratio of **unmoved** crypto assets in respective wallets (age of the coin), based on **unspent transaction outputs (UTXO)**. 

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_**please note: the following HODL wave UTXO chart is for Bitcoin**_

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<center>![iMarkup_20210907_072810.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTB9FT4pibaERkFaXpuQhVMkR4PoASsb6e4PuPzi134mD/iMarkup_20210907_072810.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Glassnodestudio.com](https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=supply.HodlWaves)</sub></center>

HODL Wave contributes to the overall valuation of the underlying asset by categorizing the life span of coins to **age band**, ranging from **1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1-3 months, 3-6 months, 6-12 months, 1-2 years.... 10 years (the 10 years age band only applies to Bitcoin UTXO, because it is the only crypto asset that has existed for more than 10 years)**. 

The HODL wave color scheme is divided into two: the **hot colors (seen at the lower section of the chart)** and **cool colors (seen at the top section of the chart)**.

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##### Calculating Coin age with HODL wave
Calculating a coin's age based on unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) using the HODL wave is done with the age band Color scheme. I will explain the sections below: 
###### 1- Hot Colors
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_074318.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWmujpVUt79GBiF5sveKiEpaGRZT8kmzXmWzavZfv75Vt/iMarkup_20210907_074318.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Glassnodestudio.com](https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=supply.HodlWaves)</sub></center>
The hot colors represent the **recent** unmoved coin ratio activities measured with age bands ranging from **24 hours, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1-3 months, 3-6 months, 6-12 months**. 
###### 2- Cool Colors
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_075437.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbskDFFcrSUuUZ25FNRo7bsFnwogXijgVeg2G9zSX6w5S/iMarkup_20210907_075437.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Glassnodestudio.com](https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=supply.HodlWaves)</sub></center>
The cool colors represent **older** unmoved coin ratio activities measured with age bands ranging from **1-2 years, 2-3years, 3-5years, 5-7 years, 7-10years**. 

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##### HODL wave in Bullish Cycle
HODL wave shows the ratio of spent against unspent crypto assets in proportion to supply and demand, which reveals the accumulation or spending pattern during different market cycles. 

Ideally, the newer age band (24 hours, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month... 6-12 months) is formed from recent UTXO transactions, which **mature overtime** to form a constituent part of the older age band (1-2 years, 2-3 years... 10 years). 

In a **bullish cycle**, the **older age band expands**, indicating an increase in the percentage of **unmoved coins** stored in wallets, this translates to **limited UTXO spending**, and a decrease in **supply** of the coin. Following the principles of demand and supply, limited supply increases the demand, which forces the price of the coin to increase, thus the bullish phase of the market is seen. 

The price movement on the HODL wave chart smoothly moves to the older age band with little or no down spikes, indicating the presence of a strong HODL wave.

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![page divider.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZsaxNLt4vQSTq2pbtxcPGYuV7QrN1SdZ3mSeNXK85zUZ/page%20divider.png)

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#### <center>Question 2</center>
###### Consider the on-chain metrics-- Daily Active Addresses, Transaction Volume, NVT, Exchange Flow Balance & Supply on Exchanges as a percentage of Total Supply, etc, from any reliable source(Santiment, Coinmetrics, etc), and create a fundamental analysis model for any crypto[create a model for both short-term(up to 3 months) & long-term(more than a year) & compare] and determine the price trend (or correlate the data with the price trend)w.r.t. the on-chain metrics? Examples/Analysis/Screenshot?

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#### Daily Active addresses 
The daily active addresses is an on-chain metrics that indicate the number of active Bitcoin addresses per movement of price. This on-chain metrics on a **long term projection** correlates with the movement of price. This validates the on-chain metrics analysis as a constituent factor in price movement.

To prove this a detailed analysis is of the daily active addresses were done on a short term scale and long term scale:
##### 1- Short term Scale (3 months)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_101343.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP8HLezQexxGFr5aJTbmFqdTYvWvL8KFtMg2EJRL8bWwC/iMarkup_20210907_101343.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Glassnode.com](https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount)</sub></center>
**Box A**
From the above image, prior to 21<sup>st</sup> June 2021 the number of daily active addresses peaked at **1 Million** active addresses, and the price of BTC stood at **$35k**. The declining trend in the number of active addresses correlated with the downward movement of price, where the active number of addresses was **823k** and the price of BTC was **$31k**. 

**Box B**
From the 26<sup>th</sup> July 2021, the increasing trend of active daily addresses also correlated with the increasing trend in price movement, with the active number of addresses peaking at **1.02 Million** active addresses and the price of BTC at **$50k**. 

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##### 2- Long term Scale (2 years)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_103219.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPHZYkUi7S7hcYSJPEHajmn69YNuGDFftGBmPNcVKbzAz/iMarkup_20210907_103219.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Glassnode.com](https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount)</sub></center>
The on-chain metrics chart above shows a complimenting relationship between the daily active addresses and the movement of BTC prices. The increasing number of addresses correlates with the increasing trend of BTC price in USD. The number of active addresses peaked at **1.17 Million** active addresses on the **13<sup>th</sup> of April 2021**, within the price of BTC standing at **$63k**. 

The declining movement of price after the ATH at **$64k** correlated with the reduced number of active addresses (seen at the right side of the chart). In general, the number of daily active addresses correlates with the movement of price, this forms a confluence between price action and fundamental analysis. 

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#### Transaction Volume
Transaction volume on-chain metrics indicate the coin exchange activities within a network. Transaction volume spikes do not correlate with price movement, but most often spikes occur to indicate an anticipated rapid movement in demand or supply. Transaction Volume spikes can be seen before the price increase, or before price decline. I will illustrate with the below:

##### 1- Short term Scale (3 months)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_121640.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPqDD58em3LXdyTrxrvEPYXmtpfvLbMeQ63262MLAHaP8/iMarkup_20210907_121640.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>
From the above image, on the 8<sup>th</sup>June 2021, the transaction volume of BTC spiked to **$53.06 Billion** and the price of BTC stood at **$33k.** On the 14<sup>th</sup> of June 2021, BTC price reached **$40k** but the transaction volume dropped to **$18.33 Billion**. 

The last spike that occurred on the 1<sup>st</sup> of August 2021, indicated a potential rapid movement of price up or downward, having the transaction volume at **$69.65 Billon** and the unit price of BTC at $39k. 

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##### 2- Long term Scale (2 years)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_123828.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWoQcTZsjvTf3MFWyJYy89GrWRESkM4HxUYKwnDAMUijd/iMarkup_20210907_123828.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>
The long-term transaction Volume on-chain metrics show a non-correlating movement between price and the on-chain metrics. But a clear indication of rapid movement is seen as spikes on the transaction volume on-chain metrics chart before the actual price movement. 

On the 18<sup>th</sup> of May 2021, the transaction volume spiked at **$73.41 Billion** before the **$29k** dip. The spike could be an excess supply of BTC caused by the panic sell of BTC. 

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#### Network Value to Transaction Ratio (NVT)
The network value to transaction is an on-chain metrics indicator that indicates the value of an underlying asset by dividing the market capitalization of the asset by the transaction volume of the asset. This model tries to evaluate the actual worth of a crypto network. 

The NVT on-chain metrics reading has a high bound and a lower bound, where **NVT higher reading** is considered an **overvalued network state**, a dip signal is anticipated. An **NVT lower reading** is considered **undervalued network state**, and a price increase is anticipated. Illustrating with a diagram below:

##### 1- Short term scale (3 months)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_132429.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQme6Dvp6V11J4DGEej53k47ytTPNGDf6Jj2uLt6xCw7fW1/iMarkup_20210907_132429.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>
The **NVT high reading (H.R)** which translates as overvalue state correlates with the decline in price movement, similarly, the **NVT low reading** which translates as undervalue state correlates with the increase in the price of BTC.

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##### 2- Long term scale (2 years)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_133034.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNPXzv4ERpwtC5XrWJbLy69cRAfENnePWrPXGWHHgUb2N/iMarkup_20210907_133034.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>
The long-term NVT on-chain metrics show the overvalue and undervalue bound, which often hint at a dip or up movements of price respectively. 

Although, as explained in the lesson, the NVT on-chain metrics indicator should be used with other on-chain metrics to determine price trends. 

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#### Exchange Flow Balance
The exchange flow balance metrics is an aggregated balance derived from the exchange inflow and outflow balances. Ideally, **exchange inflow** is seen as a **bearish indication** in price movement because exchange inflow moves crypto assets from decentralized wallets to exchange wallets and this contributes to the coin's **total supply**, resulting in a decline in the price of the coin. 

On the other hand, **exchange outflow** is considered a **bullish indication** in price movement because the outflow moves crypto assets from exchange wallets to decentralized wallets. This contributes to the coin's **total demand**, which increases the price of the asset. 

##### 1- Short term Scale (3 months) 
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_140211.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeXx33Y3JaBEZT4XHmdhRopCTmL67HjUMJ1MkiLssGweE/iMarkup_20210907_140211.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>
The short-term exchange flow is distorted and generates false signals. The exchange flow recorded on 15<sup>th</sup> June 2021, is **-29,385.21 BTC** and the unit price of BTC was $40k. Price continued the decline move and recorded a low price of **$31k**, with an exchange flow of **-1383.23 BTC** on the 21<sup>st</sup> of June 2021. 

--------
##### 2- Long term Scale (2 years)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_141831.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmduSeajXqtUje16oBZXeLNhsi58NxnDV55AYMMeoYegtn/iMarkup_20210907_141831.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>
 The long-term exchange flow on-chain metrics above show a historical increase in price after exchange outflow. The recent Hugh exchange outflow that occurred on the 25<sup>th</sup> Oct 2021 recorded an outflow of **-97,176.96 BTC** and the price of BTC was **$13,075.25**. 

After the huge exchange outflow, the price of BTC has rallied upward and also created the **$64k ATH** price. 

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#### Supply on Exchange as a percentage of Total Supply
The inflow (supply) of coins in exchange wallets contributes to the total supply of the coin, thus affecting the value of the coin. The supply on exchange as a percentage of Total supply on-chain metrics is **inversely proportional** to the movement of price. 

The inverse correlation between price and supply on exchange as a percentage of total supply on-chain metrics is explainable with the dynamics of demand and supply. Ideally, when the exchange inflow (supply) is high, the asset **price is in decline**. And when the exchange inflow (supply) is low, the asset **price is increasing**. 

I will illustrate with the short and long-term scale charts below:


##### 1- short term scale (3 months)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_150601.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZbHPrHdchiSRtkizWsGd6rx2JyShoHVYu6YuKXTJgvVF/iMarkup_20210907_150601.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>
The inverse movement of price and supply on exchange as a percentage of total supply can be seen above. On the 3<sup>rd</sup> August 2021, the exchange supply percentage was **13.23%** and the price of BTC was **$38k**. On August 4<sup>th</sup> 2021, the exchange supply percentage was **13.15%** and the price of BTC was at **$39k**. 

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##### 2- Long term scale (2 years)
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_151548.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUMhFzymEiEKK3t25xzH6WewKKGBuqrSfXx5v4m1FmdBM/iMarkup_20210907_151548.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>
The long term shows a clear inverse relationship between price movement and the exchange supply as a percentage of total supply movement. The lesser the exchange supply higher the price of the asset, and the higher the exchange supply the lesser the price of the asset. 

On August 3<sup>rd</sup> 2021, the price exchange supply as a percentage in total supply was **13.23%** and the price of BTC was **$38k**, but on the 5<sup>th</sup> of August 2021, the exchange supply percentage was at **13.16%** and the price of BTC was at **$40k**. 

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#### General Observation
The on-chain metrics indeed contribute to the overall value of a coin. The underlying dynamics of supply and demand in play with factors of on-chain metrics (daily active addresses, NVT, transaction volume, exchange supply percentage, etc.) can serve as a trade bias confluence when used with price action for long term investments. 

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![page divider.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZsaxNLt4vQSTq2pbtxcPGYuV7QrN1SdZ3mSeNXK85zUZ/page%20divider.png)

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#### <center>Question 3</center>
###### Are the on-chain metrics that you have chosen helpful for short-term or medium-term or long term(or all)? Are they explicit w.r.t price action? What are its limitations? Examples/Screenshot?

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##### On-chain Metrics 
The on-chain metrics indicators work well in **long term projections (long term investing)**, because of clear signals generation seen on consolidated time intervals (1-2 years, 2-3 years .....etc.), and also the Marco economic outlooks (fundamental analysis).  

Using on-chain metrics indicators for short-term or medium-term investing most times generates **unclear and distorted** signals because of random factors and movement of price represented. Though, In some cases, clear indications are seen when on short to medium-term analysis. 

The best approach is to combine the on-chain metrics indicators with price action and fundamental analysis (news, press release, etc.) to have a clear directional bias confirmed by all three factors.

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##### On-chain Metrics and Price Action
There is a fine correlation between price action and on-chain metrics. The constituent factors of on-chain metrics obey the principles of demand and supply, actively contributing (backing) to the price movement of a coin. 

Price action indicates the interaction between buyers and sellers in a crypto market, in line with the ratio of demand and supply. While on-chain metrics offer more insight on other factors that contribute to the logical movement of price, also following the principles of demand and supply.

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##### Limitation of On-chain Metrics
There are some limitations to the use of on-chain metrics indicators, and they include:
###### 1- Limited signal generation
The on-chain metrics generate unclear and sometimes false signals for short-term and medium investing, which limits the analytics data to only long-term investors.

An Example of unclear on-chain metrics signals is that seen on the short-term exchange flow balance, where the exchange outflow spike occurred but price continued with a decline. 
<center>![iMarkup_20210907_162845.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSgsx2aRkttY2Yf7XSUt1fY2c6wesWmMskJvVTo3EdHkR/iMarkup_20210907_162845.jpg)</center><center><sub>Screenshot was taken from [Santiment.com](https://santiment.net/)</sub></center>

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###### 2- Limited Data
Aside from Bitcoin, conducting on-chain metrics analysis on other crypto assets is difficult because of when they were created. Only Bitcoin has stayed up to a decade. Ethereum on the other hand is the second most dominant coin, and it is only 6 years old. 

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##### 3- Other Network activities 
On-chain metrics rely on network activities to generate data. Some other network activities like ICO can alter the readings or the on-chain Metrics signals without any impact on price action.

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![page divider.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZsaxNLt4vQSTq2pbtxcPGYuV7QrN1SdZ3mSeNXK85zUZ/page%20divider.png)

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#### <center>Conclusion</center>

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The on-chain metrics are constituent elements in the development of price movement, generated from on-chain network activities. The On-chain metrics often correlates with price movement, in line with demand and supply principles. On-chain metrics add to the confluence analysis required before investing in a long-term projection. 

The daily active addresses move in direct proportion to the unit price of the underlying asset, this is explainable with the reason behind the concept of supply and demand. 



Thank you professor @sapwood for this insightful lesson, I'm indeed happy to partake in this lesson. 


</div>
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@sapwood · (edited)
Thank you for attending the lecture in Steemit-Crypto-Academy Season 4 & doing the homework task-1

> The hot colors represent the recent unmoved coin ratio activities measured with age bands ranging from 24 hours, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1-3 months, 3-6 months, 6-12 months.

Evidently, it is full of noise, with multiple spikes, and no such converging pattern for the coin age below 6 months.

> The cool colors represent older unmoved coin ratio activities measured with age bands ranging from 1-2 years, 2-3years, 3-5years, 5-7 years, 7-10years.

Excellent.

Interestingly, the 1yr-2yr coinage is highest(as high as 19%) followed by 2y-3y band with 13%. Interestingly, if you combine this with the bull and bear cycle there is a visible pattern of HODL wave(BTC).

> In a bullish cycle, the older age band expands, indicating an increase in the percentage of unmoved coins stored in wallets, this translates to limited UTXO spending, and a decrease in supply of the coin.

Excellent.

> The NVT on-chain metrics reading has a high bound and a lower bound, where NVT higher reading is considered an overvalued network state, a dip signal is anticipated. 

But it is a lagging indicator, so using it you can not predict the movement, however, you can utilize this indicator suitably after a peak has occurred. Ideally, it should be used along with other indicators.

> After the huge exchange outflow, the price of BTC has rallied upward and also created the $64k ATH price.

That's correct.

**Observation/Suggestion/Feedback:-**
- The author has demonstrated & analyzed the on-chain metrics wrt price action of BTC both in the short term and long term.
- The author has used Glassnodestudio & Santiment to analyze the price trend in BTC, and also chain-linked her understanding & analysis with proper reasoning and visible evidence from the chart & price action.
- The analysis is quite good and does elicit a comprehensive understanding & use of particular on-chain data.


Thank you.

--- 

**Homework Task -1 successfully accomplished**
**[10]**

Criteria|Calculation
------|------
Presentation| 2/2
Consistency, Compliance with Topic| 2/2
Quality of Analysis| 2/2
Clarity of Structure & comprehensive understanding | 2/2
Originality| 2/2
***Total***| ***10/10***
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<center>https://i.postimg.cc/wxJCnjCc/Untitled.png</center>

|<center>To support Steeming Diaries Community, Click on convenience SP to Delegate 👇.</center>|
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<tr><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=20%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">20 SP</a></td><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=50%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">50 SP</a></td><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=100%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">100 SP</a></td><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=250%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">250 SP</a></td><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=500%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">500 SP</a></td></tr>
</tbody>
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<tr><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=1000%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">1000 SP</a></td><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=1500%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">1500 SP</a></td><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=2000%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">2000 SP</a></td><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=2500%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">2500 SP</a></td><td><a href="https://steemlogin.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=steemingdiaries&amp;vesting_shares=3000%20SP" rel="noopener" title="This link will take you away from steemit.com">3000 SP</a></td></tr>
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<center>https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmT7pDnXMoiZPHkogQwpjTDLxQRv38kLMifUGnJ9m1xTLV/image.png</center>
properties (22)
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created2021-09-09 10:11:18
last_update2021-09-09 10:11:18
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