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Down from the highs by tarazkp

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· @tarazkp ·
$14.32
Down from the highs
<div class="text-justify">

When I joined Steem I had almost zero previous experience with any kind of financial investing, and *zero* with crypto. One side of that has changed somewhat, but I am not sure how much it has changed. I do *think* I know a lot more than I did, but at the very least, I do now own a fair bit more crypto than the zero I had coming onto the platform. 

It *could* be said that in comparison to traditional stock markets, crypto is "pretty volatile" and while two years of bear markets might seem an eternity and forced many into capitulation of the industry, it is good to remember just how volatile it all can be. 

https://i.imgur.com/641uLJo.jpg

The All Time High (ATH) of Steem was on January 3rd and was around $8.30 US - *it seems soooo long ago.* Meh. However, it is often quoted as showing how far Steem has fallen and reason to be depressed and leave. What people might not remember so well however is how quickly things moved. 

For example, when I arrived on Steem at the end of January the price was about 15 cents (I didn't know at the time) and 6 weeks later it had lost 50% of its value to bottom at about 7 cents. I would have been pissed if I had bought... But, by the end of May it had climbed back 300% to be around 22 cents. Even if I had bought at "the high" when joining, I would have been up about 50% in 3 months. 

Not bad! Sell, sell, sell!

6 weeks past that however, it had climbed up 1000% on top to sit at around $2,40. 4.5 months to climb +3400%

Here is the chart from 2017 and a little of 2018 to show the ATH. 

![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmb9p212LhqtQe5cmJz8SisfcciGv5ituQsupYfcLkbCTj/image.png)

As you can see, the climb toward the ATH was 30% faster, with it moving from around $1 to $8 dollars in 4 weeks - an improvement of 800%. 

Not bad! Sell, sell, sell!


*I didn't...* I have held *all the way* down. Silly perhaps, but at the same time there aren't too many people out there who currently have more Steem than I - and I welcome them to buy some now that prices are at February 2017 levels.

Just think, in those nine months from low to high, the price of STEEM climbed about 11400% or 114x if that is easier to visualize. But, most of that climb was made in a very narrow band, while the rest of the year was essentially sliding down from the highs. It was a 6 month slide from 2.40 to ~1 before a *4 week* the climb to the ATH and as we are likely aware, it has been a pretty consistent 2 year slide from the highs down again. What I think is interesting to note between the two peaks is the difference in volume, with there being a massive amount more traded at the highs, with *most* of it being traded *after* the highs, as people tried to take advantage of the volatility with their gains. 

>Just imagine if the "real" stock market was this volatile. Would you jump in with your life savings or your retirement fund?

It is hard to imagine what that might look like tbh, I don't know if ordinary people would dip a toe, nor do I think that governments would allow that much risk exposure for funds. At some point, the volatility has to end in order for real trading mass adoption to take place, but in order for that to happen, the same thing has to happen as in the real stock market -businesses with products need to emerge.

The reason that the stock market is far less volatile is that there are products and services that have demand behind them, regardless of whether the market price of the stocks alter. People don't suddenly stop buying phones if Apple stock reduces 10%, or Jeans if Levis do - end consumers are largely unaware of the stock situation of pretty much anything they buy. When you buy bread or milk, do you know what the trading situation of the production companies are?

A lot of the crypto projects are essentially speculative only, meaning they are driven by buying and selling for profit and loss without consideration of what they produce, which is mostly nothing. STEEM is hopefully heading in a direction away from this by creating products and services that consumers can use without needing to worry about the price of STEEM or various other tokens on the platform. 

Of course for some experiences, some may have to be bought, much like a Netflix subscription gets paid for, however for the majority of future users, it could be that many will never directly enter into the trading scene and instead choose to remain consumers. This brings increasing stability as regardless of what is happening in the markets, end users will form the bottom as they will keep consuming. 

At the moment however, we are largely traders or at least, like to keep one eye on price as we have been immersed into a platform that currently spends a lot of time on the economics. This is also great as the more educated and comfortable people are, the greater the chance of stable investors also, rather than those who pump and dump at any opportunity.

Stability takes time to form and in a young and dynamic industries like crypto and blockchain, being accepting of uncertainty is critical for most to survive. I wonder though, if Steem sees periods of growth as it has in the past where in 4 or 6 weeks there are massive gains, how many will sell, how many sell too early, how many hold too long, how many sell and on the long slope down, never have the confidence again to buy?

Whatever happens, price in one way or another is one of the largest disruptors to the community demographics and for the most part from my own observations, those who have been buying in more heavily are those who are looking longer and seeing more than price, but the potential for products and service. In other words, those who will bring the future stability.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

</div>

<center>[![Onboarding](https://i.imgur.com/e6A1MiM.png)](https://steemonboarding.com/)</center>
πŸ‘  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 395 others
πŸ‘Ž  ,
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vote details (461)
@moersal ·
Good pic my friend..
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@julianhorack ·
$0.03
I'm wondering if it is worth buying steem. And will it ever climb back up in price? It should since there is a great tool - the social media platform and all the tribes and tokens. 

I see you are able to post twice a day some days, and for both posts you have organized equally good pay outs. Impressive, I thought it was only one post a day that one was able to secure such pay outs. I will aim to post more a day and see what I receive.
πŸ‘  
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vote details (1)
@tarazkp ·
$0.08
For me, it is worth buying as there is the possibility to use it, even if it doesn't have value. I am guessingit will eventually climb again. 

I have posted daily for 2.5 years without missing one, normally a couple or more a day. Over that time, I have built up support and spent my time in various areas of Steem, which has helped me build a network. There is a network effect here too. I have had ups and downs and for the first months, a payout of any kind wasn't guaranteed.  Everything takes time to build, whether on Steem or anywhere else.
πŸ‘  
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@tarazkp ·
Tweet for the skies
https://twitter.com/tarazkp1/status/1217142249580122112
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@meesterboom ·
$0.04
I was half going that there might have been some price action up or down whilst I was away. Still seesawing about at the same level. Dash it!!
πŸ‘  
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@tarazkp ·
About as boring as a Canarian Island without alcohol.
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@meesterboom ·
Lol. Yes:0D
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@audiefaith ·
Thanks for a great read! *Cheers*, to future stability! 
I❀STEEM
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@tarazkp ·
I hope it comes... But not too soon! ;D
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@owasco ·
$0.04
I'm very new to crypto, and came to steem in August 2018 when it was around .40 USD. While it seems that I have "lost" a lot, I have also invested very little money. There can be no price set on the connections and friends I have made here, so my bottom line is of little interest to me, but I am trying very hard (it's so hard!) to gather more steem mostly so that I can reward others with more than a little dust. Until then, I slave away producing what I think is great content, mostly creative writing, and hoping one of my posts will hit a jackpot. Hasn't happened yet! But that is one big allure for me here, that our posts actually can make us some steem, ya just gotta wait it out and keep doing what you do best. 
Back to your post, I like this discussion. It captures and validates a lot of my thinking. Thanks for putting it together. 
πŸ‘  
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@tarazkp ·
There are very few jackpots available here, but there are benefits in consistency. I had a look at your blog and you seem to be doing okay and remember, the amount of Steem you are getting is relatively high as the value is relatively low. If Steem was say, 5 dollars in value, a 20 dollar post would get 4 Steem (2 for you). That is an 80 cent post at these prices.
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@owasco ·
Thank you for pointing that out and I do realize this. But really, since SBD is now so low, and the amount of steem that actually ends up in my wallet seems to be quite dependent on the value of SBD, my payouts in steem relative to the STU in the payout fields have in fact plummeted since the fork. Do you know the calculations that go into converting STU to steem? It seems to me to be multiplied by SDB/USD then divided by STEEM/USD, plus a bit more. When SBD was still at $1 USD, it was a simple matter of dividing the STU by STEEM/USD to arrive at an approximate prediction of how much steem any post would earn. Not any more. Not since the last fork. 
No one has been able to answer this question for me. Where can I find this information? I have tried the white paper and such, but STU is not mentioned anywhere that I can find. What even is that? 
Thank you for bearing with me on this. I know very little about the inner workings of steem as I am sure is evident by now. 
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@owasco ·
And a $20 post *would* be a bonanza for me! 
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@bashadow ·
$0.03
It does take time to build a steem balance via natural means, but it can be done. I still hope for another 4 months at the current price level, that may allow me to get to 3000 SP, as the balance of SP grows so does the ability to reward more accounts and to earn more curation, and to garner more of a following, and build a network. Steem is so much more than the price of Steem, when one really takes a look at it.
πŸ‘  
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@tarazkp ·
This is why I have used a schedule to buy consistently when I can. Who knows when it will no longer be possible to earn - so I look long.
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