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Are These Gold Indicators Working? by deathcross

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· @deathcross ·
$95.08
Are These Gold Indicators Working?
![investing gold silver ratio coins money-506852_1280.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRWZKTEXXKzEmvq9C423XcPn8CawCcGNDBANt53HN2qQu/investing%20gold%20silver%20ratio%20coins%20money-506852_1280.jpg)

“This indicator predicted 30 of the last 10 recessions” – wrote somebody somewhere months ago about some bond market data. It is really nice to make investing forecasts. If you make enough predictions, at least some of them will become reality and you can say: “I told you…” But blockchain preserves your success and failure equally. Here is my job tougher. 
# I told you
I predicted – or, I meant, it was very probably – that gold was going to show a resurrection. I was a little early, [in August 2018](https://steemit.com/investing/@deathcross/8-reasons-why-gold-mines-can-rally-again) and in [October](https://steemit.com/investing/@deathcross/is-this-indicator-really-predicting-a-huge-rally). But I was right, gold is rallying now for weeks, [finally](https://steemit.com/investing/@deathcross/gollum-happy-the-precious-jumped). And it was making a smaller jump at the end of 2018, too.

But I was also mentioning two indicators: The HUI/Gold Ratio and the Gold/Silver Ratio. Let’s see them again.

![investing gold silver ratio SILVER2.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfA7heJNWK9tn2d97v4DvPYxJM5Cy2i5DU6sf9JfsgvVE/investing%20gold%20silver%20ratio%20SILVER2.jpg)
_(Chart courtesy of [StockCharts.com](https://stockcharts.com))_

# Historical underperformance
Despite the jump in the gold price and despite a parallel but small jump in the silver price, the ratio of the two metals remains in a pit not seen since, approximately end of 1992. Other sources are claiming it is on all-time highs, by 94 this week. That means gold is relatively expensive and silver is cheap, underperforming historically.

The ratio is in at least 26 years lows then. Did it predict the recent move in gold? I think, yes. Last year in August it was early, or I was wrong if you want. Later, in October, it was not a bad moment to buy gold or gold mines. (Gold rallied at the end of 2018, with the decline of the stock market indexes.) Then the ratio surged above the 2008 levels this spring, and some weeks after, gold jumped.

# And the mines?
Basically, gold mines are surging with gold and falling with gold, in the middle and long term. And they underperform it in the (gold) bear market and overperform it in the (gold) bull market. (They are similar to leveraged gold trades.)

![investing gold silver ratio HUI.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXJKJZgRaEd2KrjN6ZfyphXwmkBz5EnJ5Xtm5spKVdwRY/investing%20gold%20silver%20ratio%20HUI.jpg)
_(Chart courtesy of [StockCharts.com](https://stockcharts.com))_

Similarly, as the Gold/Silver ratio, the ratio of the Arca Gold Bugs miner’s shares index (HUI) and the gold is also near extreme levels. Very low now, historically seeing. But in 2015-2016, it was also much lower. By approximately 0,095, and this spring, by 1,113.

# Gold or mines?
In this price jump of gold, mines also are surging, but not overperforming. The gold piece increased approximately 10 percent this year, in the first 6 months (to 1412 from 1282). The HUI index, 12 percent (to 194.1 from 157.4). I have no idea why this underperformance now – but mine shares are more risky than gold.

My trade with [platinum and palladium](https://steemit.com/investing/@deathcross/taking-profit-on-tesla-opening-palladium-platinum-trade) may be too early to evaluate yet. Yes, that means I’m losing… but other trades began similarly. We will see.
# Trump’s fault?
Saturday morning on the G20-Summit, the leaders of the US and China, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made some sort of agreement. How this will affect the dollar, the gold, the gold mines, and the silver price, I don’t know exactly, I have only assumptions. 

The situation is complex: an agreement in the so-called trade war can mean more economic growth, globally. Better growth expectations are lowering the probability of rate cuts in the US, which can strengthen the dollar, and this is not so good for precious metals in general. Some better growth, however, can probably strengthen the silver, as an industrial metal (and maybe also platinum and palladium.) 

Probably it is time to sell my last gold mines and get some silver (or silver mines)? If so, then I should act quickly. Can’t decide. I should make more homework.

_(Photo: Pixabay.com)_
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vote details (1375)
@magic8ball ·
$0.02
To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:<blockquote>My sources say no</blockquote><hr>*Hi! I'm a bot, and this answer was posted automatically. Check [this post out](https://steemit.com/introduceyourself/@magic8ball/introducing-the-magic-8-ball-bot) for more information.*
👍  ,
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@bluerobo ·
$0.03
Haven't seen you in a while. Glad we agree ;)

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@sabari18 ·
ha..ha..😄
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@bluerobo ·
$0.02
Im going to comment this before reading: No.
Gonna look at what you have to say now :)

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@deathcross ·
I think I have good ideas. (And realizing them badly sometimes.)
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@bluerobo ·
$0.03
This is more about me not liking commodities ;)
You have good ideas. That's why I like reading them.
And I'm still impressed you made money on your Tesla short

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@vegawesome ·
That's Amazing!
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@steemitboard ·
Congratulations @deathcross! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

<table><tr><td><img src="https://steemitimages.com/60x70/http://steemitboard.com/@deathcross/votes.png?201906302339"></td><td>You distributed more than 8000 upvotes. Your next target is to reach 9000 upvotes.</td></tr>
</table>

<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@deathcross) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=deathcross)_</sub>
<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>



> You can upvote this notification to help all Steem users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!
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@crypto.piotr ·
Hi @deathcross

I hope you won't mind this comment (it's not really related in any way to your current publication). 

I've been just wondering if you joined PALnet airdrop (PALnet is a token build on Steem-engine). 

If you didn't claim it then perhaps I could ask you for small favour. Would you consider claiming your tokens and selling or delegating it to me for few months? I would obviously pay you some STEEM for those tokens (I can even pay for delegation - I want to invest some time and money into that platform).

### How to claim your token?

a) login in http://palnet.io/ (it's build on STEEM blockchain, so you will use same login details)
b) login in steem-engine.com
c) claim your tokens -> to do that you need to open steem-engine.com and go to "wallet". In left-top corner you will have PALnet (blue colour) logo. Click on it and claim your PAL tokens.
d) go to your palnet wallet and either transfer your PAL tokens to crypto.piotr or STAKE it and delegate to me (click STAKE and then "advanced" and simply type in my username). 

Amount of received tokens depend mostly on your current level of SP (I'm not sure if delegations are being taken into consideration as well).

So based on my current experience, if you have 200 STEEM POWER then you should be able to receive something around 100-150 PALnet tokens. 
I would pay you 10 STEEM for purchasing each 100 of those PAL tokens. So basically you can earn something and help me grow on this particular platform, making both of us happy :) Plus you would sell/delegate those tokens without bringing down their current price (you won't need to dump them on exchange).

You would earn some extra STEEM and I would have higher STAKE in this platform. 

I've only 500 STEEM I can spent on that purpose (plus airdrop will not last forwer) so HURRY UP :) :)

Cheers,
Piotr
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@spydo ·
re-deathcross-are-these-gold-indicators-working-20190701t095601139z
You got a 93.85% upvote from @spydo courtesy of @deathcross! We offer 100% Payout and Curation. Thank you.
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@brupvoter ·
re-deathcross-are-these-gold-indicators-working-20190701t115634307z
You got a 84.32% upvote from @brupvoter courtesy of @deathcross!
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