create account

Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better? by deathcross

View this thread on steemit.com
· @deathcross · (edited)
$7.75
Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?
![0006 Europe America map595790_19201.jpg](https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/deathcross/zc3l6orY-000620Europe20America20map-595790_1920-1.jpg)
### *Summary*
* *JPMorgan: it’s time to switch from the U.S. to Euro-Area stocks.*
* *Indeed, European indices seem to be far behind the American stock market.*
* *Short US and long Europe?*

## Stocks buying opportunity in Europe?
JPMorgan says it’s time to switch from the U.S. to Euro-Area stocks – reported [Marketwatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-jpmorgan-says-its-time-to-switch-to-europe-stocks-from-us-2019-09-30) and [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/jpmorgan-says-it-s-time-to-switch-from-u-s-to-euro-area-stocks). They are speaking about a significant “change of heart from JPMorgan equity strategists”. Because they no longer prefer US stocks to Euro-area equities.

They are also writing about tactical opportunity “opening up for Eurozone to catch up”. The stock market in the European region underperformed 20 percent in dollar terms over the past 18 months. “Close to outright cheap” – wrote JPMorgan. The investment bank expects the economy of the old continent to revive again. The new quantitative easing measures of the ECB can have their effects in some months. (Although other economists doubt it.)

## Double performance of US stocks
I made a quick chart to see the longer-term picture. I draw the S&P 500 index and the German DAX from March 9, 2009, from the supposed bottom of the Lehman-crash. (I used the total return version of the S&P 500 /SPXTR/, which also contains the dividend payment yields, like the DAX.)

![0006 COD SPXTR DAX EURUSD1.jpg](https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/deathcross/mAWGc2EQ-000620COD20SPXTR20DAX20EURUSD1.jpg)
*The S&P 500 Total Return index and the DAX German stocks index, changes in percent* *(Chart courtesy of [Stockcharts.com](https://stockcharts.com))*

In these ten and a half years, the S&P 500 jumped 443 percent, to reach more than five-fold level in value. (On a yearly basis, this is a turbo-yield of 17.5 percent.) The German DAX rose “only” 239 percent, to more than three times the original value. (Approximately 12.3 percent p. a.) The 13.7 percent fall of the EUR/USD currency pair makes European stocks even cheaper (see the smaller chart below).
## Looking at the different P/E ratios
So far, so good. Let’s see these mentioned P/E (price/earnings) ratios. [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields) reports the P/E of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 19.32, NASDAQ 100 Index, 24.35, and S&P 500 Index, 23.05. The DAX index by Bloomberg has a P/E of 20.2. But on this second financial site, the S&P 500 also quotes with 19.58 P/E, lower than on the other page.

The multi-year average of the P/E ratio, the Shiller P/E or CAPE (cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings) is on a relatively high level in the USA, by 29.2 now. *(Source: [Starcapital.de](https://www.starcapital.de/de/kapitalmarktforschung/aktienmarktbewertungen/).)* In Germany, this is only 17.2. In France, 21.0, in Great Britain, 15.8, and Italy, 19.2. Spain seems to be very cheap, with a CAPE of 13.4. (By the way, Russia has 7.2, and Turkey, 7.7.)
## Are European stocks priceless?
I’m sure the CAPE indicator also has failures and critics, for example, it seems to rely very much on the past. Besides, it doesn’t consider the level of interest. Many opinions are pointing out that the high valuations of stocks can’t be interpreted independently of the historically low level of interest rates. 

But in this case, European stocks would be priceless. Because the negative sovereign bond yields, theoretically, could induce infinite increases in exchange rates. 

Although, we know that the underperformance of Europe, has also its special reasons. The economic growth is and was lower, the ECB began its easing measures too late. New and new political worries were on the agenda. Like the Spanish crisis, Greek crisis, Italy worries, the refugee crisis, a lot of elections…

## My opinion: long and short
By my experiences, you have to take very seriously what analysts of JPMorgan say. They were often right in the past, or even, they possibly triggered the price movements themselves. Indicators also seem to underpin their opinion.

But I couldn’t sleep well only buying the stocks in this market environment. I’m considering to go long on European stocks and short some overvalued-looking American giants at the same time. 

## *This post was published first on [Turboyield.net](http://www.turboyield.net)*

### *Disclaimer 2*
*I’m short on the VIX index (S&P 500 CBOE Volatility Index). I’m long on General Electric.*

### *Disclaimer*
*This website and the information contained herein is not intended to be investment advice or credit analysis. I’m not a financial advisor and I have no business relationship with any investment or finance-related company. The posted material on this blog is my personal opinion or quoted from other sources but never advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. Make your proper research, or consult your advisors before making any investment or financial or legal decisions.*

_(Photo: Pixabay.com)_
👍  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 550 others
👎  , , , , , , , , , , ,
properties (23)
post_id80,504,549
authordeathcross
permlinkspecial-question-for-special-people-europe-or-the-us-can-perform-better
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"app":"steempeak\/1.17.1","format":"markdown","tags":["investing","stocks","usa","europe","oc","money","steemleo","palnet","neoxian"],"links":["https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/why-jpmorgan-says-its-time-to-switch-to-europe-stocks-from-us-2019-09-30","https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-09-30\/jpmorgan-says-it-s-time-to-switch-from-u-s-to-euro-area-stocks","https:\/\/stockcharts.com","https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/market-data\/stocks\/peyields","https:\/\/www.starcapital.de\/de\/kapitalmarktforschung\/aktienmarktbewertungen\/","http:\/\/www.turboyield.net"],"image":["https:\/\/files.steempeak.com\/file\/steempeak\/deathcross\/zc3l6orY-000620Europe20America20map-595790_1920-1.jpg","https:\/\/files.steempeak.com\/file\/steempeak\/deathcross\/mAWGc2EQ-000620COD20SPXTR20DAX20EURUSD1.jpg"]}
created2019-10-01 17:52:45
last_update2019-10-01 18:20:06
depth0
children14
net_rshares23,651,100,538,334
last_payout2019-10-08 17:52:45
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value3.875 SBD
curator_payout_value3.879 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length5,226
author_reputation711,577,524,471,479
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries
0.
accountsteempeak
weight200
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (626)
@akomoajong ·
!neoxag 20
properties (22)
post_id80,505,377
authorakomoajong
permlinkre-deathcross-2019101t192511923z
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing","stocks","usa","europe","oc","money","steemleo","palnet","neoxian"],"app":"esteem\/2.2.2-mobile","format":"markdown+html","community":"esteem.app"}
created2019-10-01 18:25:12
last_update2019-10-01 18:25:12
depth1
children1
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 18:25:12
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length10
author_reputation37,344,119,338,869
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries
0.
accountesteemapp
weight300
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@deathcross ·
Thank you!
properties (22)
post_id80,506,010
authordeathcross
permlinkre-akomoajong-pyplsi
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing"],"app":"steempeak\/1.17.1"}
created2019-10-01 18:53:06
last_update2019-10-01 18:53:06
depth2
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 18:53:06
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length10
author_reputation711,577,524,471,479
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@neoxag-tip ·
<div class="pull-left">

![tip.gif](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRXkcSygEnve4MAtS24HsTVBFUjmP3zosjqgkm2jGRbZH/tipgif.gif)

</div>
<div class="pull-right">

<center>

# You have received `20 NEOXAG` gift from @akomoajong!

<sup>Please check your [neoxian.city](https://neoxian.city/@deathcross/transfers) wallet.</sup>
<sub>To know more about our tip bot read [Neoxian City Tip Bot Announcement Post](https://www.neoxian.city/neoxian/@neoxag-tip/announcing-neoxian-city-tribe-tip-bot-v-1-0)</sub>
<sub>To know more about our tribe read [this post](https://www.neoxian.city/neoxian/@zaku/neoxian-city-a-new-scot-tribe-on-the-steem-blockchain)</sub>
<sub>To view or trade NEOXAG go to [steem-engine.com](https://steem-engine.com/?p=history&t=NEOXAG)</sub>

</center>

</div>
properties (22)
post_id80,505,380
authorneoxag-tip
permlinkk1869n1b
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"app":"neoxag-tip\/1.1"}
created2019-10-01 18:25:21
last_update2019-10-01 18:25:21
depth1
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 18:25:21
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length775
author_reputation1,348,962,882,591
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries
0.
accountreazuliqbal
weight10,000
max_accepted_payout10,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@deepwaters ·
They are two separate markets that are not exactly comparable. The Euro Area stocks are much more services oriented and most companies have low cost access to financing. Us Stocks are more for newer products and services. 
I would still put my money in the USA. The US DOllar is the global reserve currency for 96% on countries worldwide. They many not be the best player in the game, but they set the rules of the game. So I would bet on the one who writes the rules.
properties (22)
post_id80,505,456
authordeepwaters
permlinkre-deathcross-2019101t122851965z
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing","stocks","usa","europe","oc","money","steemleo","palnet","neoxian"],"app":"esteem\/2.2.0-surfer","format":"markdown+html","community":"esteem.app"}
created2019-10-01 18:28:54
last_update2019-10-01 18:28:54
depth1
children2
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 18:28:54
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length468
author_reputation1,556,762,000,503
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries
0.
accountesteemapp
weight1,000
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@deathcross ·
Maybe JPMorgan writes the rules? Maybe the gap between the valuation of US stocks and EU stocks is too big already? Maybe EU is less affected by trade war? US presidential election nearing, risks surging...
I don't know the answers, only thinking loud.
properties (22)
post_id80,505,650
authordeathcross
permlinkre-deepwaters-pypl1s
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing"],"app":"steempeak\/1.17.1"}
created2019-10-01 18:37:06
last_update2019-10-01 18:37:06
depth2
children1
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 18:37:06
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length252
author_reputation711,577,524,471,479
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@deepwaters ·
I meant more like the Federal Reserve writing the rules, as they control the money supply of the US Dollar. Yes, the effect of the ongoing trade war is just beginning to show. I think that JP Morgan may also consider the Euro to be more stable as this conflict continues. 
I am also just thinking out loud. 
I am enjying you blog though.
properties (22)
post_id80,506,412
authordeepwaters
permlinkre-deathcross-2019101t1390270z
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing"],"app":"esteem\/2.2.0-surfer","format":"markdown+html","community":"esteem.app"}
created2019-10-01 19:09:21
last_update2019-10-01 19:09:21
depth3
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 19:09:21
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length337
author_reputation1,556,762,000,503
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries
0.
accountesteemapp
weight1,000
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@dreamryder007 ·
Long GE sounds like it could be painful. 
This isn't financial advise. 
properties (22)
post_id80,505,778
authordreamryder007
permlinkre-deathcross-pyplai
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing"],"app":"steempeak\/1.17.1"}
created2019-10-01 18:42:18
last_update2019-10-01 18:42:18
depth1
children2
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 18:42:18
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length71
author_reputation51,155,094,217,765
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@deathcross ·
I bought it low in December, and sold the half with gains, so I'm not complaining. 
properties (22)
post_id80,505,915
authordeathcross
permlinkre-dreamryder007-pyplkw
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing"],"app":"steempeak\/1.17.1"}
created2019-10-01 18:48:33
last_update2019-10-01 18:48:33
depth2
children1
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 18:48:33
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length83
author_reputation711,577,524,471,479
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@dreamryder007 ·
Sounds good
properties (22)
post_id80,508,757
authordreamryder007
permlinkre-deathcross-pyprds
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing"],"app":"steempeak\/1.17.1"}
created2019-10-01 20:53:54
last_update2019-10-01 20:53:54
depth3
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 20:53:54
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length11
author_reputation51,155,094,217,765
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@bluerobo ·
I would say overweight Yurop because they are lacking behind. Definitely don't short US

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://partiko.app/referral/bluerobo)
properties (22)
post_id80,506,261
authorbluerobo
permlinkbluerobo-re-deathcross-special-question-for-special-people-europe-or-the-us-can-perform-better-20191001t190333988z
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"app":"partiko","client":"android"}
created2019-10-01 19:03:36
last_update2019-10-01 19:03:36
depth1
children2
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 19:03:36
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length158
author_reputation7,742,636,826,811
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@deathcross ·
Maybe some individual stocks, looking for US short ideas... Better than shorting the entire market. 
properties (22)
post_id80,506,375
authordeathcross
permlinkre-bluerobo-pypmfu
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["investing"],"app":"steempeak\/1.17.1"}
created2019-10-01 19:07:06
last_update2019-10-01 19:07:06
depth2
children1
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 19:07:06
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length100
author_reputation711,577,524,471,479
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@bluerobo ·
I definitely subscribe to the theory of shorting specific stocks vs going long an index.
As always, I'm short on shorts and short ideas.

Wework would have been one. 
Still wondering if Uber will recover.
Silly question: are any of the scooter companies already listed? They've got to be a terrible pile of burning cash.

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://partiko.app/referral/bluerobo)
properties (22)
post_id80,506,514
authorbluerobo
permlinkbluerobo-re-deathcross-re-bluerobo-pypmfu-20191001t191405733z
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"app":"partiko","client":"android"}
created2019-10-01 19:14:06
last_update2019-10-01 19:14:06
depth3
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-08 19:14:06
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length391
author_reputation7,742,636,826,811
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@steemitboard ·
Congratulations @deathcross! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

<table><tr><td><img src="https://steemitimages.com/60x70/http://steemitboard.com/@deathcross/votes.png?201910011850"></td><td>You distributed more than 10000 upvotes. Your next target is to reach 11000 upvotes.</td></tr>
</table>

<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@deathcross) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=deathcross)_</sub>
<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>


To support your work, I also upvoted your post!


> You can upvote this notification to help all Steem users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!
properties (22)
post_id80,513,807
authorsteemitboard
permlinksteemitboard-notify-deathcross-20191002t012008000z
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"image":["https:\/\/steemitboard.com\/img\/notify.png"]}
created2019-10-02 01:20:09
last_update2019-10-02 01:20:09
depth1
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-09 01:20:09
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length890
author_reputation34,058,241,623,249
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@ocdb ·
Hello. Currently there are a lot of curation groups and whales curating amazing content, there's no need to buy votes. The downvote you received is to discourage the buying of votes from bidbots. We kindly invite you to join us on the #NewSteem attitude, where good content receives votes and the organic content get the most attention. Buying votes hurts you, other authors and the Steem Ecosystem in general, please don't do it.
properties (22)
post_id80,515,809
authorocdb
permlinkpyq86g
categoryinvesting
json_metadata{"tags":["newsteem"],"app":"steemit\/0.1"}
created2019-10-02 02:56:42
last_update2019-10-02 02:56:42
depth1
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2019-10-09 02:56:42
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length430
author_reputation3,476,250,874,387
root_title"Special Question For Special People – Europe Or The US Can Perform Better?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000