create account

Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity? by bigtx31

View this thread on steemit.com
· @bigtx31 · (edited)
$5.61
Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?
# Valuation Strategies for  Cryptocurrencies (Introduction) 
####
Since they began trading publicly, cryptocurrencies have been notoriously difficult to value. Much of the valuation has been speculative with volume, business adoption, or merchant acceptance being the most commonly cited metrics. However, given the high levels of volatility in the market, it's clear that there isn't broad alignment on valuation metrics.

Well, time to add a new metric to the books - *commits*! Cryptomiso recently released its ranking of cryptocurrencies based on GitHub commits, and the chatter has begun on what that means. 

**First, what is a commit?**

Per GitHub: *"A commit, or revision" is an individual change to a file (or set of files). It's like when you save a file, except with Git, every time you save it creates a unique ID (a.k.a. the "SHA" or "hash") that allows you to keep record of what changes were made when and by who."*

**...but what does that mean in English?**

In short, the higher the commits, the more the developer team is changing and editing the code. One could argue that a coin with strong, long term potential should have more commits, while a coin that is either stabilized or has declining  potential should have less commits.

For example, as pointed out in a recent Merkle artcile, Dogecoin has almost 0 commits - suggesting low long-term potential.

**...so...can we actually use commits as a valuation indicator?**

This is where it gets tricky. For starters, we don't have enough data right now to draw any sort of correlation. Second, market cap is driven by a lot of other things right now - volume, market sentiment, economic conditions, etc. If we were confident that market prices were driven by a defined set of valuation principles, we could draw more of a correlation, but it's clear that the data is really noisy right now. Finally, we have no way of telling the quality of a commit - it could be a complex recode or just changing a single letter - so volume is not the best indicator of true development potential.

**...but if I wanted to try?**

If you **REALLY** wanted to try, you'd want to look for:
1) coins with a high commit number and;
2) a below average market cap $ per commit

Assuming you believe in the business case of the platform, this would suggest that the developer team is dedicated to building and improving the platform and that the market hasn't quite realized the "full potential" yet.  As the platform stabilizes, one could see the market cap $ per commit trending back towards the average, as the price rises and the number of commits declines.

So without further ado...

![Capture.PNG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcB8NQuxXV33BgGoMmmtjCTN26KJjQNnQqigiJtSY1uQF/Capture.PNG)

I ran a quick analysis of the top 20 coins by commit*  and their market cap, based on data from Cryptomiso and Coinmarketcap as of 2/1/2018. The greens suggest a market cap $ / commit below average and therefore could signal potential long term, investment opportunities. The reds suggest, in contrast, a stable coin and platform (e.g., Bitcoin) with potentially less runway for growth.

**So you bought Komodo then?**

Nope, not yet. For me, this has only led me to start exploring Komodo in greater detail. But in the world of crypto, a little focusing can only help!

**In the coming weeks, I plan to explain other high-level valuation strategies being used in the market so please stay tuned!**

*Note: Certain coins with 0 market cap were excluded; Bitcoin was excluded for average calculation purposes; Commits calculated from 2/17 - 1/18;

*Disclaimer: This is only my opinion and is not a recommendation for a certain investment action or strategy.*
👍  , , , , , , , , , , ,
properties (23)
post_id29,815,533
authorbigtx31
permlinkcan-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "format": "markdown", "image": ["https://steemitimages.com/DQmcB8NQuxXV33BgGoMmmtjCTN26KJjQNnQqigiJtSY1uQF/Capture.PNG"], "tags": ["cryptocurrency", "bitcoin", "crypto", "trading", "money"]}"
created2018-02-02 03:03:12
last_update2018-02-02 03:17:21
depth0
children14
net_rshares901,945,487,123
last_payout2018-02-09 03:03:12
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value4.455 SBD
curator_payout_value1.154 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length3,701
author_reputation902,725,177,948
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (12)
@nzfxtrader ·
$0.27
Excellent post. Something worth exploring for sure.
Any edge we can get in trading is exploitable. I am looking into correlations between Google search data and Currency price.
👍  , , ,
properties (23)
post_id29,821,358
authornzfxtrader
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180202t033910418z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-02 03:39:12
last_update2018-02-02 03:39:12
depth1
children1
net_rshares42,684,939,304
last_payout2018-02-09 03:39:12
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.208 SBD
curator_payout_value0.057 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length176
author_reputation1,047,128,548,050
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (4)
@bigtx31 ·
$0.53
Thanks and agreed! I've long held a hypothesis that google search data has some directional value in predicting prices. Would love to see what you find
👍  ,
properties (23)
post_id29,828,491
authorbigtx31
permlinkre-nzfxtrader-re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180202t042354709z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-02 04:23:54
last_update2018-02-02 04:23:54
depth2
children0
net_rshares84,495,106,050
last_payout2018-02-09 04:23:54
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.399 SBD
curator_payout_value0.126 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length151
author_reputation902,725,177,948
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (2)
@geggleto ·
$0.15
Idk about prices, but this is the first thing that I look at in ICOs. When there's not daily activity on github then I seriously question wtf they are doing.
👍  
properties (23)
post_id29,829,342
authorgeggleto
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180202t042925701z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-02 04:29:24
last_update2018-02-02 04:29:24
depth1
children1
net_rshares24,859,301,803
last_payout2018-02-09 04:29:24
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.118 SBD
curator_payout_value0.036 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length157
author_reputation51,549,234,710
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)
@bigtx31 ·
$0.39
Agreed, all the whitepapers in the world are meaningless if the team is just sitting on their hands
👍  
properties (23)
post_id29,930,312
authorbigtx31
permlinkre-geggleto-re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180202t144807193z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-02 14:48:06
last_update2018-02-02 14:48:06
depth2
children0
net_rshares61,161,053,042
last_payout2018-02-09 14:48:06
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.292 SBD
curator_payout_value0.095 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length99
author_reputation902,725,177,948
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)
@minnowvotes ·
re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180202t142356853z
You got a 17.70% upvote from @minnowvotes courtesy of @bigtx31!
properties (22)
post_id29,925,841
authorminnowvotes
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180202t142356853z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "postpromoter/1.8.0"}"
created2018-02-02 14:24:00
last_update2018-02-02 14:24:00
depth1
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2018-02-09 14:24:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length64
author_reputation107,977,516,232
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@crob ·
$0.16
Nice way to look at it, I am curious if you came up with this idea or heard about it?
👍  
properties (23)
post_id30,005,759
authorcrob
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180202t223817303z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-02 22:38:18
last_update2018-02-02 22:38:18
depth1
children2
net_rshares25,779,563,819
last_payout2018-02-09 22:38:18
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.121 SBD
curator_payout_value0.040 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length85
author_reputation264,376,118,574
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)
@bigtx31 ·
$0.56
Thanks - I'd seen people mention commits but I haven't seen a market cap/commits analysis, which on its face seems like it could be directionally helpful. Not sure it's the right way to look at it yet but crypto is in a great place where we have some opportunity to explore and exploit strategies
👍  , ,
properties (23)
post_id30,059,518
authorbigtx31
permlinkre-crob-re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t052254297z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-03 05:22:54
last_update2018-02-03 05:22:54
depth2
children1
net_rshares85,823,640,518
last_payout2018-02-10 05:22:54
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.426 SBD
curator_payout_value0.131 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length296
author_reputation902,725,177,948
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (3)
@crob ·
Totally agree with your perspective on this. I am definitely going to pay more attention to the commits.
properties (22)
post_id30,062,194
authorcrob
permlinkre-bigtx31-re-crob-re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t054248374z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-03 05:42:48
last_update2018-02-03 05:42:48
depth3
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2018-02-10 05:42:48
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length104
author_reputation264,376,118,574
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@msp-bidbot ·
re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t050737675z
This post has received a 27.94% upvote from @msp-bidbot thanks to: @bigtx31. Delegate SP to this public bot and get paid daily: [50SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=msp-bidbot&vesting_shares=102530.111111%20VESTS), [100SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=msp-bidbot&vesting_shares=205244.111111%20VESTS), [250SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=msp-bidbot&vesting_shares=515000.000000%20VESTS), [500SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=msp-bidbot&vesting_shares=1029244.000000%20VESTS), [1000SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=msp-bidbot&vesting_shares=2059244.000000%20VESTS), [5000SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=msp-bidbot&vesting_shares=10289244.000000%20VESTS) Don't delegate so much that you have less than 50SP left on your account.
properties (22)
post_id30,057,450
authormsp-bidbot
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t050737675z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "postpromoter/1.8.0"}"
created2018-02-03 05:07:36
last_update2018-02-03 05:07:36
depth1
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2018-02-10 05:07:36
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length1,057
author_reputation-4,432,682,923
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@jerrybanfield ·
re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t075221424z
Thank you bigtx31 for making a transfer to me for an upvote of 1.23% on this post! 

Half of your bid goes to @budgets which [funds growth projects for Steem](https://steemit.com/budget/@jerrybanfield/introducing-steem-budget-proposals) like [our top 25 posts on Steem](https://steemit.com/budget/@jerrybanfield/the-top-25-steem-posts)!

The other half [helps holders of Steem power earn about 60% APR](https://steemit.com/budget/@jerrybanfield/new-automatic-daily-payouts-of-60-apr-for-steem-power-delegations) on a delegation to me!

For help, will you please visit [https://jerrybanfield.com/contact/](https://jerrybanfield.com/contact/) because I check my discord server daily?  

To learn more about Steem, will you please use [http://steem.guide/](http//steem.guide) because this URL forwards to my most recently updated complete Steem tutorial?
properties (22)
post_id30,079,216
authorjerrybanfield
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t075221424z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "postpromoter/1.8.2"}"
created2018-02-03 07:52:21
last_update2018-02-03 07:52:21
depth1
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2018-02-10 07:52:21
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length852
author_reputation324,422,607,917,161
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@jerrybanfield ·
re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t091946035z
Thank you bigtx31 for making a transfer to me for an upvote of 0.80% on this post! 

Half of your bid goes to @budgets which [funds growth projects for Steem](https://steemit.com/budget/@jerrybanfield/introducing-steem-budget-proposals) like [our top 25 posts on Steem](https://steemit.com/budget/@jerrybanfield/the-top-25-steem-posts)!

The other half [helps holders of Steem power earn about 60% APR](https://steemit.com/budget/@jerrybanfield/new-automatic-daily-payouts-of-60-apr-for-steem-power-delegations) on a delegation to me!

For help, will you please visit [https://jerrybanfield.com/contact/](https://jerrybanfield.com/contact/) because I check my discord server daily?  

To learn more about Steem, will you please use [http://steem.guide/](http//steem.guide) because this URL forwards to my most recently updated complete Steem tutorial?
properties (22)
post_id30,091,667
authorjerrybanfield
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t091946035z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "postpromoter/1.8.2"}"
created2018-02-03 09:19:45
last_update2018-02-03 09:19:45
depth1
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2018-02-10 09:19:45
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length852
author_reputation324,422,607,917,161
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@dirkboy41 ·
$0.60
Insightful analysis! Didn't know what a commit was until now. Do you have stats on steem and bts MC/commits? Would be interesting to see how they stack up against the rest.
👍  ,
properties (23)
post_id30,163,064
authordirkboy41
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t163440027z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-03 16:34:39
last_update2018-02-03 16:34:39
depth1
children1
net_rshares89,870,472,512
last_payout2018-02-10 16:34:39
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.452 SBD
curator_payout_value0.145 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length172
author_reputation1,362,838,658,835
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
author_curate_reward""
vote details (2)
@bigtx31 ·
Thanks @dirkboy41! Looking to build out a more robust database - they don't rank in the top 20 notably but doesn't mean there isn't some activity. Stay tuned!
properties (22)
post_id30,168,635
authorbigtx31
permlinkre-dirkboy41-re-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180203t170529177z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "users": ["dirkboy41"], "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-03 17:05:27
last_update2018-02-03 17:05:27
depth2
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2018-02-10 17:05:27
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length158
author_reputation902,725,177,948
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000
@araneobit ·
Hello, we are Project Araneobit - money transfer system based on the blockchain. The Commission for money transfer is set independently. 
You can invest money
properties (22)
post_id32,080,025
authoraraneobit
permlinkre-bigtx31-can-you-predict-cryptocurrency-prices-by-developer-activity-20180212t093225109z
categorymoney
json_metadata"{"app": "steemit/0.1", "tags": ["money"]}"
created2018-02-12 09:32:24
last_update2018-02-12 09:32:24
depth1
children0
net_rshares0
last_payout2018-02-19 09:32:24
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 SBD
curator_payout_value0.000 SBD
pending_payout_value0.000 SBD
promoted0.000 SBD
body_length158
author_reputation0
root_title"Can you predict cryptocurrency prices by developer activity?"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 SBD
percent_steem_dollars10,000