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Shots Fired : NewSteem Launches Blitzkreig on Trending Battlefield by buggedout

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· @buggedout · (edited)
$45.10
Shots Fired : NewSteem Launches Blitzkreig on Trending Battlefield
Trending has been a problem for a long time now.  Before this latest Hard Fork(s) it was frequently filled with poor quality content that had been boosted by vote sellers.  Trending was an open display of just how corrupt the Proof of Brain idea that STEEM promised had become.  So it’s no wonder that Trending was going to be the first battleground for [The War To End All Wars]( https://steemit.com/steem/@buggedout/hard-fork-21-and-the-war-to-end-all-wars) that I warned about last month.  The Vigilantes that I spoke of back then are fighting under the banner of #NewSteem and I am yet to figure out whether this is some sort of loose ideology, or whether it is more of an organised gang.  I suspect it’s a little bit of both, but that’s for another time. For now NewSteem seems largely unopposed as it rolls forward with guns blazing and I want to report on the casualties.

<center>![tanks.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPM6vvzekfYyKJP2Lt12QEipRHZd2VWm52eZsCQreFsTz/tanks.jpg)
[Source](https://www.facebook.com/worldoftanks.OldBuddies)</center>

Obviously, the shitposters who have been using vote selling services to push themselves into Trending have taken a LOT of early fire from NewSteem.  Rightfully so, I might add.  They were pretty much cannon fodder and as with most money-grubbing types, as soon as you hit them in the hip pocket they go to ground pretty quick.  Trending already looks quite different, but the dust hasn’t settled on that battlefield so I won’t put myself in the crosshairs just yet by commenting on that.  I am more interested to see if the Vote Sellers are being hit on the bottom line and to see how they are responding to the likely loss of profit margin.  As I said in my previous post :-

> **They are currently one of the most powerful demographics on the platform so their behaviour will be key to how this all plays out.**

There are actually a few Vote Sellers who are ALSO fighting under the NewSteem banner and I wasn’t really expecting that as it seems a bit counter-intuitive and hypocritical.  I should not be surprised by such duplicity I suppose, but rather than call anyone out let’s have a look at the data as it tells its own story.

<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmW742Dh1v2w42gJTgr4SCacitZfcEAUfr4S2zAAcwGy24/image.png)</center>

The above chart shows data from the top 7 Bid Bots.  What I’ve done is taken transfers of STEEM and SBD to these accounts to calculate their gross income using a value of 0.21 (price has been fairly steady around this level over the period).  I’ve then taken a 3-day average to try and smooth out the lines a bit and then I’ve taken the average pre-fork value (Aug 13 to 26) to normalise a 100% level across each of the services.  In this way I can show just how much – percentage wise – their incomes are down.  You can see that all 7 Bid Bot incomes are currently down in the vicinity of 40 to 65% since the Hard Fork(s).

<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeNAVxeB47K1ojDDFSePiptg56GzefqQjKVAmQXh97PDy/image.png)</center>

Next I looked at the top 4 Instant Vote Seller services.  Using the same methodology as before I wanted to see if these services were doing any better.  While I do think the instant vote business model will be slightly more robust with the economic changes, some of them also vote with posting keys from users (instead of delegations) meaning they leave less of a footprint.  I wondered if this would help keep them under the radar and I was pleased to see that so far it hasn’t.  Their incomes are down an almost identical 40 to 65% amount.

<center>![flag.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfN3oNjHhGLr3YJ4F2oP7iFWUUmz5bkjrd3w9Khq1UP2H/flag.jpg)
[Source](https://knowledgenuts.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/175862494.jpg)</center>

So the Vote Sellers are not dead, but they are definitely hurting and this loss of revenue will be starting to flow through to their investors.  Some of the vote seller accounts are having delegations pulled from investors already, while others seem to be holding onto their delegations for now.  Perhaps the loss of revenue hasn’t quite dawned on many of those investors yet.  I might come back to have a look at that in a week or two.

<center>![remember.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVYLRDNgBCL2DcCQii4AL8qjcpg8NfHQiKW3n52yEdbHe/remember.jpg)
[Source](http://www.wholeheartedmen.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/remember.jpg)</center>

One thing that I have noticed though is that the yields on the lease market have dropped significantly in recent times.  A week or so ago the top of the market at Minnowbooster for instance was in the vicinity of 19% and more recently I’ve seen that drop down to about 13%.  Today there are market requests at around 17% so I would expect that the drop in vote selling yields will flow through to the lease market as passive investors chase a better return.  Keep an eye on the below chart if you’re in the lease market as I’d expect the purple and orange pie slices to grow.

<center>![minnowbooster.PNG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSWSBsRZPkPUqe5v8obVzEzpUkFn1jNoUyiV7Z9mKk8ob/minnowbooster.PNG)
[Source](https://www.minnowbooster.net/market)</center>

Back to the Vote Sellers and the next thing I wanted to see was whether they were retaliating or getting involved in any downvote wars.  About half of those already investigated had not issued a single downvote in the period, while the other half had started targeting users.  While it’s possible that some of these flags were retaliatory, at a glance they look like they are targeting specific abusers.  I bundled all the downvote weights from all the Vote Sellers above into the one chart to see that (apart from the chain stoppage on September 2) there is a general increase in their downvote activity.  This is another trend to keep an eye on because if they hold onto their delegations then they will maintain a powerful stake for downvoting.

<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNedpgkZDWXeo34euwJ8U1oCRvZSkB9eRXDF1VpYrdfV9/image.png)</center>

Overall I see many of the Vote Sellers generally trying to lift their game, or at least put out some positive PR material.  Some are instituting Whitelists for clients and trying to ensure only quality content gets through.  Some are also looking at doing some manual curation, perhaps throwing favour back to their delegators via that means.  It will be interesting to see what sort of business model they might try to adopt and if/how the increased curation rewards will be shared back to investors.  Where there is a will there is a way and while the goalposts might have shifted, there will still be opportunity to game the system if they adapt – and I expect they will.

<center>![corruption.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQcDtuksv5SaqN96SKrBGD7upaJxPqBJPkmYqaUeKeVuP/corruption.jpg)
[Source](http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2354556/images/o-CORRUPTION-facebook.jpg)</center>

In summary it looks like NewSteem is punching pretty hard, the shitposters are down for the count and the Vote Sellers are taking it on the chin so far but they face an exodus of investors if they can’t stem the bleeding.  There are also a few personal downvote exchanges going on that have the potential to get nasty but nothing too widespread yet.  Stay tuned because these are just the opening exchanges.

_____

<center>![TeamAust_buggedout.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUt49vWU6QZLjCaRE1BvngS3jQb52Tc76kDZkhinhWCo1/TeamAust_buggedout.png)</center>

<center>![steemsilvergold_buggedout.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaq8QsJtKKAQhFK7MhQAgz31TA3zwDPXuM8sNX1Rrhb3y/steemsilvergold_buggedout.png)</center>
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vote details (935)
@welshstacker ·
A very good annalasis and as always, you go where very few dare to tread. Thanks for getting the information out there buddy.
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@buggedout ·
Thanks mate.  I can always count on you to not flag the shit out of me for my unpopular opinions :)
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@welshstacker ·
Count on me not to flag **YET**....
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@costanza · (edited)
And all of this while the platform continues to get flooded by post2mine Spam Actifit post and it has become nearly impossible to support smaller account because of the non-linear reward curve while upvoting the big guys who you know will get a lot of upvotes is the way to win.
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@enforcer48 ·
Have you seen @backscratcher? Now, that’s a circlejerk to mine. Lol
👍  
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vote details (1)
@abh12345 ·
🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️
👍  
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@buggedout ·
That's probably worth doing some analysis on too down the road, to see how smaller accounts have been affected.
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@fitinfun ·
I'm a small steem blogger with three niche blogs here, @buggedout. All three are doing better under the fork. I just wrote a post on my fitinfun blog about what I am seeing. It is titled "Rat Trap" in case you would care to read it. 

My fitinfun blog has focused on minnow tips for the last two years. Big fish do not vote for minnow tips, but I help as best I can to fight our 95% kill rate for noobs. 500 big accounts circle-jerking does not make a vibrant ecosystem. So I work with people who make it to 45 rep and 100 sp to help them find a place here if they can.

We lost a lot of good minnow/redfish accounts in the last two weeks. Those of us who remain are doing better than we were. 

I am giving the fork a thumbs up and very happy to see your analysis with the trends it shows. May we all survive and thrive.
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@j85063 ·
Love getting your insights on steem.

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://partiko.app/referral/j85063)
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@buggedout ·
Love getting your positive feedback :)
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@abh12345 ·
Interesting stuff and as you say, these are early days so it will be interesting to take another look at this data again soon.
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@buggedout ·
I've got the queries saved.  Massaging the numbers and formatting the charts should take me substantially less time now.
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@smartsteem ·
👍
*~Smartsteem Curation Team*
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@buggedout ·
It's good to see you here :)
👍  
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vote details (1)
@donald.porter · (edited)
Totally expected to see a comment from them [@smartsteem](https://steemit.com/@smartsteem), all of a sudden they care about manual curation 😒

I was one of the first to ‘burn’ Steem expecting curation from them, specifically the **_ReggaeSteem merchandise post_**— the curation never came but they curated a whale within a min of his podcast post a few minutes later. Clearly before actually listening to it.

I used to use vote selling and bid bots a lot, fact is some ppl will never upvote your post no matter how relevant or beneficial the content is to Steem. They rather upvote a steak dinner than a new hotel merchant being on-boarded and accepting Steem. Faced with those odds pre HF21, using bidbots seemed like the only way to get your msg out on the platform.

Still, I’m very glad to watch them go and only concern is if it’s still feasible to add a JAHM vote bot to [ReggaeSteem.com](https://reggaesteem.com) Tribe. It’s starting to look like a bad idea after seeing your metrics.

$trdo

@buggedout Cheers !BEER
👍  
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@beerlover ·
<div class='pull-right'>https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXK1U89BrMJHwgv6BysSpYswN7NA39URStPi65azu3PJo/Sich%20f%C3%BCllendes%20Bierglas.gif<p><sup>To view or trade <code>BEER</code> go to <a href='https://steem-engine.com/?p=market&t=BEER'>steem-engine</a>.</sup></p></div><center><br><br> <p> Hey @buggedout, here is your <code>BEER</code> token. Enjoy it!</p> </center>
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@mattclarke ·
Its not too surprising to see bidbot accounts embracing new steem. Ultimately if they hadn't been acting the way they were, the will to push through the necessary changes wouldn't have existed. 
Change the rules of the game, and you change the behaviour of the players; many of who may have been deliberately abusing the old rules in order to highlight the problems with oldsteem. 
**Goodness knows, complaining wouldn't have changed anything.**
👍  ,
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@buggedout ·
$0.03
True enough.  The question is whether the ones who have been deliberately abusing the old rules will go on ahead and deliberately abuse the new rules.

As for complaining...well it's something that I'm good at.  I still like to think that rational people can be reasoned with.  Haven't had much luck with that on STEEM though admittedly :)
👍  , ,
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@markkujantunen ·
> True enough. The question is whether the ones who have been deliberately abusing the old rules will go on ahead and deliberately abuse the new rules.

There are still people on the platform who will autovote any shit they can find as long as the curation rewards are good. It is impossible to directly punish those users if they are not creating any content. The only thing we can do is to unearth all the shitposts these second degree milkers are upvoting and downvote that shit to the ground. That will kill the second degree parasites also.

It's frustrating because what the upvote spammers are doing is the opposite of what the #newsteemians are trying to accomplish with their downvotes.
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@lordbutterfly ·
Looks good. Happy to see the bleeding happening. Nice analysis. Very helpful. 
Unfortunately cant vote cause my VP is shot so you just get a comment. ;)
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@buggedout ·
I'll take what I can get :)

Your name did seem familiar from my spreadsheet today and so I did a little digging.  Seems there HAS been some retaliatory flagging going on.  Will keep an eye out to see if it remains the exception or becomes the norm.
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@valued-customer ·
$0.03
>"...the Vote Sellers are not dead..."

If this keeps up, Steem might even end up less centralized.  I may faint.

Thanks!
👍  
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@buggedout ·
It would be nice to see a more decentralised STEEM since centralisation is one of the main criticisms of DPoS systems.
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@katharsisdrill ·
Having a working social media is an essential part of the whole business model behind Steem, so the parasitic behaviour of these player simply has to stop - some of them are clever enough to see that killing off the host will leave them with a lot of useless SP (some are not quite as clever, but I guess evolution will deal with them).

Cool with an analysis - I was [about to leave](https://steemit.com/newsteem/@katharsisdrill/evening-thoughts-on-bidbot-and-badbots) before the hardfork, but I am more and more confident that we can keep Steemit afloat.

Obviously I am a #newsteem trooper.
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@buggedout ·
I want to see bloggers like you stick around and not be scared to voice dissent, or even make a few jokes.  You are definitely one that I'll be keeping an eye on.  Perhaps you're one of the canaries in the coalmine ;)
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@katharsisdrill ·
It would really not fit me to be in a place where I had to bow my head to anyone. It was the reason I left Facebook actually. But you can, if you just post your work and answer the comments, completely forget about what else happens on this site. The voteselling business, the circle jerks etc. is all happening in silence. I think the downvotes did it. When you have this tool why not use it? and when you go looking for it, it is there in shocking amounts.

I will keep at it with the community effort from now on, and I'll follow you for the analyses. Great info.
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@bmj ·
Interesting numbers there. You may be right on the leasing market with a new supply side pressure coming in. The better curation rewards may help support the price, so it will be interestig to see where is settles. I would have to agree the purple band will get bigger, and the orange to some degree.  For me the balanc is finding the native SP vs Leased SP ration to maintain a sustainable return, and maybe make a small profit in the process... so many variables to work with to find the sweet spot.
👍  
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@buggedout ·
The pie chart is already starting to look a bit different.  The purple is almost half the pie now and the orange has doubled in size.
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@choogirl ·
Thanks for the analysis (again) Bugged. Your posts are generally the only "steem" posts I read.
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@buggedout ·
Cheers @choogirl it's always good to see you popping up on my blog.  I'm glad to hear you still find value in some of my steem posts :)
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@choogirl ·
I really do!
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@frankbacon ·
Highly rEsteemed!

![Screen Shot 2019-08-27 at 6.03.26 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmc5qtJPfwFAAfhHwU35SvK5xpQmgHTi5JzXutBq265X2n/Screen%20Shot%202019-08-27%20at%206.03.26%20PM.png)
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@skramatters ·
Uh so you didn't buy a trail of votes after 3 days LMAO?!?  Mad props for being a complete clown and lacking any integrity whatsoever 😂

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://partiko.app/referral/skramatters)
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@buggedout ·
Did it take you 3 days to read my post?
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@skramatters ·
No it took about 3 minutes

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://partiko.app/referral/skramatters)
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@pennsif ·
This post has been included in the latest edition of  [**The Steem News**](https://steemit.com/steem/@pennsif/the-steem-news-11-september-2019) - a compilation of the key news stories on the Steem blockchain.
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@buggedout · (edited)
Thanks.  I appreciate the extra exposure.
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