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| 1. | | parent_author | "" |
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| parent_permlink | betting |
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| author | mikeymanifesto |
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| permlink | mikey-manifesto-s-combat-sports-predictions-early-peek-at-the-bellator-heavyweight-grand-prix |
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| title | "Mikey Manifesto's Combat Sports Predictions: Early Peek at the Bellator Heavyweight Grand Prix" |
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| body | "
We are still about a month away from this tournament, but with the futures bets, that have already lost some value (more on that later), for this one I feel its worth commenting on now to take full advantage of before more value might be lost.
Just from a viewing perspective this should be a fun little tournament to watch so I hope you catch it. How can a tournament where UFC vet, Frank Mir is the 3rd youngest of 8 competitors not be fun lol.
Lets get down to business though. I'll list all the fighters to begin with, give a little bio on them and then we'll discuss betting options on specific fights along with the opportunities with making the best bets considering the odds and chances to win the whole thing.
<center><b>
Matt "Meathead" Mitrione, 39yrs, 6'2, 255lbs, 12-5 (11KOs), +225 to win the tournament</b></center>
Mitrione is an ex-NFL player (2002-2005) who turned to MMA in his late 20's/early 30's. He got onto the tenth season of the The Ultimate Fighter with no MMA fights on his record in 2009. He won his first 5 fights with the UFC, including over the notable backyard fighter Kimbo Slice before taking his first L to Cheick Kongo. He continued fighting many fringe and legit UFC contenders, largely coming up short. He has seemingly improved little by little over the years and is currently on a 3 fight win streak, all by KO, in Bellator with the crowning achievement being the stoppage of Fedor Emelianenko in his last fight in June 2017. He will be looking to avenge one of his losses in his first round matchup on Feb. 16 vs Roy Nelson (Nelson KO'd Meathead in 1 in 2012). Meathead is a -175 favorite to win the fight.
Recent Notable W's: KO1 Fedor Emelianenko (2017), KO1 Gabriel Gonzaga (2014) & KO1 Derrick Lewis (2014)
Recent Notable L's: KO'd in 3 Travis Browne (2016), Subbed in 1 Ben Rothwell (2015) & Subbed in 1 Brendan Schaub (2013)
<center><b>
34yrs, 6'2, 205lb, 24-5 (10KOs, 3Subs), +280 to win the tournament</b></center>
Bader is a two-time state champion wrestler in High School who was a three-time Pac-10 All-American. He started in MMA in 2007 and went 7-0 (3KOs, 3Subs) before getting on season 7 of The Ultimate Fighter. He ended up winning the contest and went undefeated for two more years before running into a guy named Jon Jones in 2011. Bader went through a rough batch for the next couple years before the streak he's currently on since 2013 where he's won 9 of his last 10 fights. The only loss has been to maybe the hardest punching sub-265lber in Anthony "Rumble" Johnson. He's also 2-0 in Bellator with the 205lb title among his current trinkets. Bader will be fighting "King Mo" Lawal on May 11 and will be the biggest favorite of the opening round (-260).
Recent Notable W's: Ws5 Phil Davis (2017), KO3 Antonio "Little Nog" Nogueira (2016) & W3 Rashad Evans (2015)
Recent Notable L's: KO'd in 1 Anthony Johnson (2016), KO'd in 1 Glover Teixeira (2013) & KO'd in 2 Lyoto Machida (2012)
<center><b>
38yrs, 6'3, 260lbs, 18-11 (9KOs, 5Subs), +400 to win the tournament</b></center>
Mir won a state wrestling championship in his senior year of High School and got into MMA younger than many guys from this era. Turning pro at 22 years old he got into the UFC within 6 months of his first fight in 2001. On June 19, 2004 he won the UFC heavyweight title after snapping the arm of Tim Sylvia. This success was short lived as he was in a motorcycle accident 3 months later that would result in his not fighting for a year and a half. After returning to the UFC in 2006 he wasn't quite the same fighter and until he upset WWE wrestler turned UFC fighter Brock Lesnar in 2008 most thought his best days were already behind the still 20-something Mir. He would win the interim UFC heavyweight title before losing to Lesnar at UFC 100 in their awaited rematch. Mir has fought for the heavyweight title twice, coming up short, since then. He's currently lost 6 of his last 8 fights. In 2016 he got suspended for a positive PED test that has kept him out of the ring for what will be 2 years by the time he fights Fedor Emelianenko on Apr. 6. Mir will be a -185 favorite.
Recent Notable W's: KO1 Antonio Silva (2015), Sub1 Antonio "Big Nog" Nogueira (2011) & W3 Roy Nelson (2011)
Recent Notable L's: KO'd in 1 Mark Hunt (2016), L3 Andrei Arlovski (2015) & L3 Alistair Overeem (2014)
<center><b> 
Fedor "The Last Emperor" Emelianenko, 41yrs, 6'0, 235lbs, 36-5 (16Subs, 11KOs), +600 to win the tournament</b></center>
"The Last Emperor" was a Judo & Sambo player winning tournaments and national titles before turning to MMA in 2000. He has one of the most notable runs in MMA history with a nearly decade long, 28 fight unbeaten streak (27 wins, 1 NC) from 2001 to 2009. Fedor lost a fight early in his career when a fight was stopped early due to a severe cut. In 2003 in his third fight in Pride he beat Antonio "Big Nog" Nogueira for the Pride heavyweight title. He would keep the title til 2007 when he left Pride. In 2009 he joined Bellator. This is when reality came upon a only once beaten Fedor. He won his first bout vs Brett Rogers, but he would lose his next 3 fights before leaving Bellator. He would have 3 more fights vs lesser fighters before retiring in 2012. He returned after a 3 and a half year layoff winning 2 fights before joining Bellator again. In his last bout he had a explosive 1st round KO loss to "Meathead" Mitrione where both fighters got dropped at the same time before Meathead recovered quicker and finished him. Fedor will be fighting Frank Mir on Apr. 6 & is a +155 dog.
Recent Notable W's: W3 Jeff Monson (2011), KO2 Brett Rogers (2009) & KO1 Andrei Arlovski (2009)
Recent Notable L's: KO'd in 1 Matt Mitrione (2017), KO'd in 1 Dan Henderson (2011) & KO'd in 2 Antonio Silva (2011)
<center><b>
Roy "Big Country" Nelson , 41yrs, 6'0, 260lbs, 23-14 (14KOs, 4Subs), +600 to win the tournament</b></center>
Big Country was a multi-sport athlete in school and even played for a couple years for a professional rugby league pre-MMA. He had a fairly up and down run going 13-4 in mostly low level MMA leagues before getting on & winning the tenth season of The Ultimate Fighter. Nelson's never had much success beyond the fringe contender level while having a 9-10 record in the UFC. He's loss 7 of his last 11 fights. He won his only Bellator fight in September. In the first round he'll be a dog ( +145) to "Meathead" Mitrione.
Recent Notable W's: KO2 Antonio Silva (2016), KO1 Antonio "Big Nog" Nogueira (2014) & KO1 Cheick Kongo (2013)
Recent Notable L's: L3 Alexander Volkov (2017), Ls3 Derrick Lewis (2016) & L5 Josh Barnett (2015)
<center><b>
Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal, 36yrs, 6'0, 215lbs, 21-6 (13KOs), +1100 to win the tournament</b></center>
"King Mo" was a high level wrestler at the world level prior to turning to MMA. He won 3 US championships and a gold medal at the Pan Am Games. Lawal was favored to win a spot on the 2008 US Olympic team but his opponent narrowly got the needed points in the final seconds of their match to win. With his high level wrestling backing him up Lawal was moved quickly to better opponents where he won the Strikeforce light heavyweight title in his 7th fight over Gegard Mousasi. He'd lose the title in his next fight. He stumbled for the next few years as he learned and improved. Currently King Mo has won 9 of his last 11 fights and one of those losses was a short notice fight. The King will be taking on Ryan Bader in the first round, he'll be the biggest dog (+200) in the opening round.
Recent Notable W's: W3 Quinton Jackson (2017), Ws3 Cheick Kongo (2015) & W5 Gegard Mousasi (2010)
Recent Notable L's: KO'd in 2 Mirko Cro Cop (2016), L3 Phil Davis (2016) & L3 Quinton Jackson (2014)
<center><b>
"The American Gangster" Chael Sonnen, 40yrs, 6'1, 205lbs, 29-15-1 (7KOs, 5Subs), +1400 to win the tournament </b></center>
Sonnen competed in wrestling in High School and College even winning the World University Championships in 2000. He had to grind his way through MMA for many years before reaching the UFC. He fought in too numerous to mention MMA minor league outfits & had a 15-6-1 record before making his way in the UFC. And it didn't last long as he was in & out inside of a year after going 1-2 in his initial UFC run. From there he had a 2 year run in Bodog Fight & WEC (going 7-1, only losing in a WEC title fight) before getting picked up again by the UFC. He lost his initial fight to be 1-3 in the UFC before pulling off 3 wins in a row & getting a 185lb title fight with Anderson "Spider" Silva. He gave Silva one of his toughest fights & was 2 minutes to winning a decision before getting submitted. The American Gangster would go 3-3, getting and losing two title shots (at 185 & 205) before retiring in 2013. He stayed out of the cage for 3 years before signing with Bellator having gone 1-1 since his return. Sonnen will be fighting Rampage Jackson in his first round fight and will be a +125 dog.
Recent Notable W's: W3 Wanderlei Silva (2017), Sub1 Mauricio Rua (2013) & W3 Michael Bisping (2012)
Recent Notable L's: Subbed in 1 Tito Ortiz (2017), KO'd in 1 Rashad Evans (2013) & KO'd in 1 Jon Jones (2013)
<center><b>
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, 39yrs, 6'1, 255lbs, 37-12 (16KOs, 7Subs), +1600 to win the tournament </b></center>
Rampage was a All-American High School wrestler who wanted to get into pro wrestling not MMA initially. He discovered MMA during a stint at a community college and turned pro at 21 in 1999. He'd go on to win 10 of his first 11 fights before getting a spot on a Pride card in 2001. He fought frequently in Pride til 2006, losing his biggest fights. Rampage came up short in two Pride Grand Prix's, losing to the winner both times & losing in a Pride 185lb title fight. In 2007 he signed with the UFC & would win the UFC 185lb title in his 2nd fight by sleeping fan favorite Chuck Liddell. He defended the title once before dropping it to Forest Griffin. Jackson went 4-4 in his next 8 fights in the UFC before heading to Bellator. He's won 5 of his last 6 fights. His opening round match up is vs Chael Sonnen and Rampage is a -145 favorite.
Recent Notable W's: W3 Muhammed Lawal (2014), Ws3 Lyoto Machida (2010) & KO1 Wanderlei Silva (2008)
Recent Notable L's: L3 Muhammed Lawal (2017), L3 Glover Teixeira (2013) & L3 Ryan Bader (2012)
<center><h4><b>Whats worth betting on?</b></h4></center>
In this old guy tournament one of the best bets was something I hinted at in the beginning which was "The Field" meaning someone not in this tournament yet being +1000 to win the whole thing. That was the sexiest bet I saw to make at the sportsbook and personally I got in on that way back a couple months ago. Upon revisiting the lines for this tournament I noticed that "The Field" option had dropped to +600 which I don't think is anywhere near as sexy a betting option. Its a solid bet someone will fall out for some reason & there will be a surprise entrant into this tournament, but I need more upside so I'd recommend passing on that bet now as its lost nearly half of its value.
As far as the options now to win that I think have the most value with how this tournament could shape up I definitely concur with the odds that have Mitrione being the favorite. Big Country is his first opponent & he's been doing awful lately & his career is on fumes. His semi finals opponent will be a light heavyweight who I highly question their ability to take Meathead's punches with 6 of their combined 11 losses coming via knockout. From there I think its a matter of who wins between Fedor & Frank as Rampage & Chael are both not going to be able to get much done vs these much bigger guys. And Frank's chin isn't there anymore & Fedor already lost to Mitrione last time out although it was hardly a easy W for Meathead. That said I don't expect Meathead to do any worse than he did the first time 18 months later when this final will likely take place & who knows what fumes Fedor is on by then.
So I'm recommending putting 3 units to win 6.75 units on Matt Mitrione. I'm not SUPER confident on that pick so I'm not going any harder than 3 units. I think there are a lot of variables in play here, but through as much of a process of elimination as in any hardcore confidence in Mitrione I believe he's far & away the best pick here to win considering whats likely to go down.
As far as to opening round predictions I'm not going to make any official recommendations this early as I wanna to do some more in depth tape study plus perhaps gather some clues on the training, mindset & physical shape closer to fight time before deciding how light or hard I'll go. In the meantime I will give a preliminary opinion on where I'm leaning at the moment and without any units bet recommendations.
Lets start from the beginning with the specific fights.
Jan. 20, Rampage Jackson, -145 vs Chael Sonnen, +125
Neither of these guys have been all that impressive lately, but I feel that Rampage is the bigger guy & this will be Chael's debut in the 265lb division which I think is just a bad idea for him & this tournament is as well. I think there is a high probability this fight looks like hot garbage, but I think Rampage will take it even if he's as not motivated as he's been.
Feb. 16, Meathead Mitrione, -175 vs Big Country Nelson, +145
If this was a couple years ago I might be picking Big Country, but he's not the guy he once was. He's only even KO'd 1 guy in his last 3 wins. If Big Country can't KO you he isn't gonna beat you. Now the question is does Mitrione fight in a way to most reduce his risk of getting caught? I'm not so confident in that. Can he KO Big Country? Matt's KO'd 11 guys in his 12 wins & Nelson has only been KO'd in 2 of his 37 fights, by Mark Hunt & Andre Arlovski. Some guys who didn't KO Big Country? Overeem, Stipe, Black Beast Lewis & Junior Dos Santos. So I think there is some danger with this fight that makes it less appealing to bet & perhaps the most dangerous fight of the tournament cuz Meathead will likely play into Big Country's only strengths. I need to see some more stuff before I wanna bet on this fight or am secure in how many units I'd lay on it. If I do end up betting closer to fight time the only bet will be Meathead though as the question is more about what Mitrione can do to hurt his chances of winning more than what can Big Country do to win.
Apr. 6 Frank Mir, -185 vs Fedor Emelianenko, +155
This is probably the fight I feel is most off odds-wise. I think Fedor should be the favorite here or at a minimum it should be a pickem. Mir's chin is just done, he's been KO'd in 3 of his last 8 fights & 8 of his 11 L's are by KO. And he seems to always be way to into standing with guys when he's a killer on the ground, Mir gots the 2nd most subs in this tournament. Thats a recipe for disaster. Fedor is probably my most confident first round pick & he's paying dog money to so can't argue with that.
May 11 Darth Vader, -260 vs King Mo Lawal, +200
Both of these guys have been doing pretty well lately & might be the best fighters in this whole tournament if we considered everyone from a P4P point of view & considered them right now at this moment in time cuz most of the other guys seem a lil past it to put it kindly. The fact these guys will be competing at 265 for this fight makes me unsure of what we'll see exactly with this 205lber fight & with the 205lbers in general in this tournament. That makes me feel like staying away from this fight is going to be the preferred option. I feel like going into the semifinals there might have been more takeaways discovered to make better betting decisions, but for this opening round with guys going up a division & potentially staying at that division for 2 more fights who knows what guys are doing or thinking strategically.
So those are my current thoughts with the tournament futures betting and my early thoughts on the specific matchups. My official predictions will be made closer to fight time.
Thank you for taking the time to read this & if there are any specific fights you want me to cover feel free to mention them in the comments section.
Happy Holidays & Good Luck with your bets, my friends.
<center><h1>STEEM IT PREDICTIONS TO DATE:</h1>
<h5>PREDICTIONS: 2
CORRECT: 2
INCORRECT: 0
PCT CORRECT: 100.0%
UNITS BET: 8
UNITS WON/LOSS: +7.08
ROI: 88.5%
MOST RECENT PREDICTIONS:
https://steemit.com/mma/@mikeymanifesto/mikey-manifesto-s-combat-sports-betting-predictions-for-dec-23-2017
PENDING PREDICTIONS:
https://steemit.com/betting/@mikeymanifesto/mikey-manifesto-s-combat-sports-prediction-for-dec-31-hiroto-kyoguchi-vs-carlos-buitrago
</h5></center>" |
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