## Trying to second guess price movement of Bitcoin is almost as difficult as trying to figure out what women really want
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I have been watching the static price of BTC for the last few days. I've been watching the narrowing BTC triangle on the year-to-date charts. I've been watching volume as it declined this week - knowing that a price drop was imminent.

But after that? What then? 

I've speculated about it, on this very blog, until I was blue in the face. But I'm still none the wiser. 

I *know* that the price has to rise. I *know* that the fundamentals are extremely bullish, I know that a bull market must be on the cards.

Right now it seems to me as if everyone is playing a waiting game. By "everyone" I'm referring to the big money: the institutional investors. While I'm quite sure that the sneakier (and smarter) ones have already made their way into the market, the more cautious ones: banks, hedge funds, multinational corporations, unit trusts etc. all buzz around crypto like aircraft in a holding pattern, waiting to land when the bad weather has cleared from the airport.

It's as if nobody wants to make the first move. I'm still sure that once the ball starts rolling, a domino effect will kick in and investment will suddenly snowball into cryptos. 

Lambo. 
Moon.

But until then we sit on the sidelines. Waiting *patiently* while we chew our nails down to stubs.

Let's look at what's happening now. Short-term as well as more holistically.  After that I'm going to leave the time-line and price level guessing up to you. I'm tired of trying to get it right! 😅

# Bitcoin price movement: now - next week - next month - next year
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Ladies and gentlemen: the latest BTC price chart (including today's nasty little dip.)
![Screenshot_1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmccHNYT2PB9G9zLDqDMRxpup7nBDtu4byjzePt6V4FmuY/Screenshot_1.png)
From TradingView

The most consistent and stable line on that chart is an ascending support line which forms the bottom of the main triangle. The top of the triangle (the resistance line) is fairly stable, but not quite as consistent as the support level. As this triangle continues to narrow, we know that the price *MUST* breakout soon. How violently and which way remains to be seen.

![Screenshot_3.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbk5TxtDv7PB8L5xKgsaJwArTeZPktSjfLZ21d6e68G8z/Screenshot_3.png)
From TradingView - modified by @bitbrain

There is a pattern there - apart from the triangle. I'm going to spilt this year's chart into three: Red, Yellow and Blue. Like this:
![Screenshot_1 colour.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmawybqfAhAuC2VhHo4sM6pBK4iZKkAieqKRrTF4hrMAP8/Screenshot_1%20colour.png)
From TradingView - modified by @bitbrain

Now I'm going to stretch those sections to equal size and then overlay them on one another (I *love* overlays!)
![Screenshot_2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmczh5dYzSzFvwkowZS4TauhdLtVSw7xRKuTxTHS8oC6tb/Screenshot_2.png)
From TradingView - modified by @bitbrain

Not a bad match! Not bad at all. What does it mean? Are we in for yet another repeat of the same pattern perhaps? That *could* happen, but I think that this market is past that point. For months now I have felt the tension in the market waiting like a coiled spring - I doubt that it's going to go through another repetition of that pattern. This market feels ripe for something new. But what?

Today's drop *could* be the beginning of a sharp dip. There are numerous occasions in BTC's history where such a dip exists at around this point in a tapering triangle. I will highlight the two most obvious examples:

June 2013:
![Screenshot_4.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUvvhR8Y7zH2631HUp2f6A7vNbnmUd77kcaboAmuvream/Screenshot_4.png)
From TradingView - modified by @bitbrain

And May 2014:
![Screenshot_5.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZwi1NGKLi5ac8cRQDFR3cQNsg9k2Mvf1nuYnbVFG7eFL/Screenshot_5.png)
From TradingView - modified by @bitbrain

If BTC follows that pattern, then it could well be in for another sharp dip. I think that the chance of such a dip will increase exponentially if the support line of the tapering triangle is broken.

The chart below highlights shows similar past dips and where we are now. Note that there are several smaller examples of such dips on the chart:
![Screenshot_6.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZqzjPVJFBFjWauos9vFkCDghMJyhPMxUPEvvjtodyGgB/Screenshot_6.png)
From TradingView - modified by @bitbrain

## Summary:
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#### Short-term BTC price movement: 
I don't know

#### Medium-term BTC price movement:
I know very little. Watch for a big dip if the support level is broken. Or perhaps the pattern will repeat yet again like on the red, yellow, blue chart.

#### Long-term BTC price movement:
Ah! Finally something I do know! 😃
Upwards!

![Screenshot_7.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZVeHtxMf5zffanNskJ2dty5Xn5VSLd66PCgrvBBYYinY/Screenshot_7.png)
From TradingView - modified by @bitbrain

Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain


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DISCLAIMER:
***I am neither a financial advisor nor a professional trader/investor. This is not financial advice, investment advice or trading advice.*** Unless otherwise stated, all my posts are my opinion and nothing more. ***Crypto is highly volatile and you can easily lose everything in crypto. You invest at your own risk!*** Information I post may be erroneous or construed as being misleading. I will not be held responsible for anything which is incorrect, missing, out-of-date or fabricated. Any information you use is done so at your own risk. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and realise that ***you and you alone are responsible for your crypto portfolio*** and whatever happens to it.