TIB: Today I Bought (and Sold) - An Investors Journal #387 - 3D Printing, Swiss Interest Rates, Altcoins by carrinm

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investing · @carrinm ·
$13.31
TIB: Today I Bought (and Sold) - An Investors Journal #387 - 3D Printing, Swiss Interest Rates, Altcoins
Europe PMI data convinces markets growth is slowing. Algo selling mode begins. The big story is in the change in the yield curves. Time for the bond bulls to come back.

![Mar22Trades.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTdkaA3CtJDZgp7LCWoXncW6vooef95CbvgeaUpnUYEfU/Mar22Trades.png)

<h3>Portfolio News</h3>

**Market Selloff** 

The enormity of the Federal Reserve shift hit the markets on Friday. Economies are slowing. 

![Mar22US.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma1cq7eiwgxFtMmUKZYBoiGAn9ptyhiK8NTrUz45xXDgb/Mar22US.JPG)

A part of the problem is the slow flow of economic data coming out of the the US as they catch up with the 35 day government shutdown. Markets do better on data - a dearth of data and they start making things up. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-markets-arent-buying-the-feds-claims-about-the-strength-of-the-us-economy-2019-03-23

Treasury yields fall further and some of the yield curves become inverted. 

![Mar22Yields.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeV7HhPWVLG4hytYPC7dhfbgrh3s8KHfZ6MrYfJ76DFWp/Mar22Yields.JPG)

I watched Jim Cramer's Mad Money episode from Friday night - he was strong on cautioning about panic in the face of curve inversion. The data about the US economy is stronger than people give credit for AND an inverted yield curve is not a good predictor - sometimes it is wrong - i.e., too early. 

https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/dont-be-hero-cramers-mad-money-recap-march-22-14904625

As always I come back to 3 charts. U6 Rate (total unemployment plus unemployable and marginally employed) is at lowest level not seen since before the last crash. This is the widest measure of who could be employed. 

![Mar22U6Rate.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXavh2tfh9dybVLD6sCbJSDHSszHs4m5hvDzSYH7xj6dH/Mar22U6Rate.JPG)

Note: Last data point is end February.

https://mymark.mx/U6Rate

Wages growth remains well above the target 2% inflation rate and has been that way for a while. 

![Mar22WageGrowth.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWDjmCsCy3pJvg4X8mMsHQt16QnNKFuTTe7UG8dpZEGph/Mar22WageGrowth.JPG)

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

US workers are doing just fine - good job growth, wages rising faster than inflation, low inflation and now falling interest rates. 

Last chart is a measure of spreads between high risk debt and treasuries - also low by historical measures and recovered from the December selloff scare. Lower interest rates helps this chart. 

![Mar22Risk.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcGUoxq6dNxnXt9XqUb12a2Q84cS3rEouHAiynDBRgprq/Mar22Risk.JPG)

https://mymark.mx/RiskIndex

Europe led the collapse with weak PMI data released, especially lower than expected in Germany. 

![Mar22Europe.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbpomBaESWFr9W99555YMzTostLGKoEctEXS6BRJDL5aK/Mar22Europe.JPG)


<h3>Shorts</h3>

**3 Month Euroswiss Interest Rate Futures** Swiss Interest Rates.  March 2019 futures contract expired for 4 basis points loss since April 2017. 

![Mar22EuroSwiss.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmegVDdLwwvz8CMZPHo7f4gVjP8vaRrqVJzzZ2Wv2HemzM/Mar22EuroSwiss.JPG)

Chart shows entry point in July 2017 when price was falling (matched by rates rising in US). That just did not continue with one more try in early 2018 and then the reversal back to more negative rates. 

https://www.theice.com/products/37650324/Three-Month-Euro-Swiss-Franc-Euroswiss-Futures/data?marketId=5089674&span=3

Note: This chart is for June 2019 expiry. It is a price chart - rates fall when price rises. Chart from Intercontinental Exchange  (theice.com)

<h3>Income Trades</h3>

**3D Systems Corporation** (DDD): 3D Printing. Sold April 2019 strike 12.5 calls for 1.40% premium (1.41% to purchase price). Closing price $11.39 (new trade). Price needs to move another 9.7% to reach the sold strike (new trade). Should price pass the sold strike I book a 10% capital gain. 

I did not expect to see any covered call trades hit. This one was even more surprising given price dropped 4.3% on the day to close at $10.90

<h3>Cryptocurency</h3>

**Bitcoin** (BTCUSD): Price range for the weekend was $59 (1.5% of the high). Price stayed fully within the confines of the engulfing bar and was keen to stay below $4000. The sellers are right there. 

![Mar24BTC.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaJajYmzMzCVVWEpL5aAFur5H3fPzb7zVSrscF6jzVdfX/Mar24BTC.JPG)

**Ethereum** (ETHUSD): Price range for the weekend was $4 (3% of the low). Price stayed comfortably above the longer term support line - it is itching to break higher but not very convinced it is safe up there. 

![Mar24ETH.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcGWQx1bs55rRfuAkeXFNGtWWceWFAsrESHxqakHJYT5C/Mar24ETH.JPG)

<h3>CryptoBots</h3> 

**Profit Trailer Bot** One closed trade (2.39% profit) bringing the position on the account to 6.99% profit (was 6.97%) (not accounting for open trades).

![Mar24PTWins.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVoULz4BTqt1DztNddLnvxHziyuzTiETFP7ks5yrrdWA4/Mar24PTWins.JPG)

Dollar Cost Average (DCA) list remains at 4 coins with 2 coins up and 2 down.

![Mar24DCA.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXRu2qJTdHSnTQZi1trRbvd3CAe8bEz2mXsDkVQh4mJUD/Mar24DCA.JPG)

Pending list remains at 10 coins with 7 coins improving, 1 coin trading flat and 2 worse. 

![Mar24Pend1.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmewQHZHXtYEfC3W2F3vtJzyFsk7boi52wUcvdWf13WF2n/Mar24Pend1.JPG)
![Mar24Pend2.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUnwWpQntUxwHz8U5hw7dtNLhcieeBcyWHC1kfiwhzrGX/Mar24Pend2.JPG)

PT Defender continues defending 10 coins. Defence trade completed on OMG. 

![Mar24PTD.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmetoFZRx6Y2JGPRJMTgQWx5uQVMg9eij2j5UkzxYcpFDU/Mar24PTD.JPG)

**New Trading Bot** Trading out using Crypto Prophecy. One closed trade on TRX (1.96% profit). New trade opened on QSP - a bit after the Stochastic signal triggered (lower window). Trade filled in two parts - will have two exit points at 524 and at middle of Bands at 525. 

![Mar25QSP.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZpn7gS8uxi8qhcATP5QEN3WyYeumcHoozFN39HEhYjLw/Mar25QSP.JPG)

<h3>Currency Trades</h3>

**Outsourced MAM account** Actions to Wealth closed out 6 trades (USDJPY and AUDNZD) for 0.19% profits for the day. Trades open on USDCHF and USDJPY (0.55% positive)

Cautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas

Images: I own the rights to use and edit the Buy Sell image. News headlines come from Google Search. Employment and risk charts come from St Louis Fed.  Other economy charts are credited below charts. All other images are created using my various trading and charting platforms. They are all my own work. 

Tickers: I monitor my portfolios using Yahoo Finance. The ticker symbols used are Yahoo Finance tickers

Charts: http://mymark.mx/TradingView - this is a free charting package. I have a Pro subscription to get access to real time forex prices

Crypto Prophecy provides a useful tool to identify oversold and overbought coins - https://mymark.mx/CryptoProphecy

Trading: Binance offers a wide range of coins to trade, tight spreads and low fees if you use BNB to pay https://mymark.mx/Binance

March 22, 2019

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vote details (218)
@franciscana23 ·
$0.36
@carrinm soy de Venezuela amigo y como sabe aqui la situación económica esta algo complicada, ahorrar en nuestra moneda (Bolivar) es difícil y por eso recurrimos a las criptomonedas como manera de ver si podemos lograr conseguir algo de dinero extra que de verdad no nos caería mal, una pregunta amigo podría recomendarme alguna "Altcoin" en la cúal invertir. Saludos desde Venezuela
👍  
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vote details (1)
@carrinm · 
Always hard to give advice. Ideally one should spread the risk across a few coins. Ultimately in your situation in Venezueal, you will have to work with coins where it is easy to convert from Bolivar and back when you need cash. Find what is easy and work with that. Longer term, I would focus on coins in the top 10 or 15 measured by market capitalization. Here is a table of top 15. 

I stay away from the Bitcoin spin off coins (Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV). Tether is effectively the US Dollar and is an artificially tied coin. BNB is the coin Binance uses for its exchange fees. it is doing well BUT it is tied to Binance. 

![Mar25Coins.JPG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWb8erZ8UKyHmuc62RazHn9ryzVWQxeREK5AkQfw6Spv7/Mar25Coins.JPG)

https://coinmarketcap.com/
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@newageinv ·
$0.03
Seems like the yields have to bottom in order to send the right message of a stable economy.  Otherwise, bad news is back to being bad news.  The Fed has to feel awkward with their reversal although it may be well supported going into the end of the first quarter.

Posted using [Partiko iOS](https://partiko.app/referral/newageinv)
👍  
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vote details (1)
@carrinm · 
Those wage growth numbers and the level of the U6 Rate will tell us who is right. I can see a scenario where inflation becomes a problem when the China deal is done especially if Saudi Arabia and Russia can hold onto the oil cuts.

I noticed before market open how futures responded to the Mueller enquiry news. That was a big deal given the rout in Asia. One more worry point taken away. Now Donald Trump can focus on getting the trade deal done.
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