The run-up to Easter is confusing with many markets closed. More work on uranium and action on European interest and Japanese interest rates. A little gold hedging put in place too. 

![Apr17Trades.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUkWaJ4PaZuFSXJQ5q1g6Q29BrUwStK33eg9VmFFytUt9/Apr17Trades.png)

<h3>Bought</h3>

**Newcrest Mining** (NCM.AX): Australian Gold Miner. Trade signal came in from my research house for this gold miner. Gold price is quietly moving up and broke to new highs which was enough confirmation for me to make the trade.

![Apr13Goldprice.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQCWphtoBGEe1HELeWV4JqM51BJvpbtoUnFm671GtvKvN/Apr13Goldprice.JPG)

**Centrus Corp** (LEU):  US Uranium Enrichmnt. In our investment group, we spent quite some time discussing uranium (again). Centrus is the company born out of the bankrupticy of the old USEC Corp which enriches uranium.  This investment gives direct exposure to current and emerging demand for uranium and direct exposure to any uranium price rises. I already hold a position in uranium enrichment through the French company, Areva. 

<h3>Sold</h3>

**ComStage Bund-Future Double Short ETF** (5X63.DE): Short German 10 year Government Bonds. 4.6% loss in 5 weeks. The thesis was that German Treasury yields would go up - they went down as markets got nervous again and bailed into German Bonds. Because this ETF is working to double the movement in yields (i.e., it is leveraged) I had placed a stop loss on the trade. Prudence pays BUT maybe not this time. Over the same time the unleveraged Bund short ETF I hold dropped 2% - so we know the double feature is working. I did say at the time I opened this trade that it would be a short position - the funding costs to run the ETF positions do degrade the longer term performance within the ETF. 

![Apr17France.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXUDr8eL7wEutFy8HMqubKtX3eVFSnwGzGVhZ8eaLaCti/Apr17France.JPG)

I will reconsider this trade when the the uncertainty of the French Elections is a little less evident in the fear factor.   

<h3>Shorts</h3>

**Japanese 10 year Government Bond** (JGB): June 2017 futures. I have been waiting for the Bond price to show a reversal and had pending orders set below the market. This short trade was triggered on April 17. Trade was set up before the weekend on a 4 hour chart. I was looking for the high to be proved with a solid reversal - and kept moving the entry point below each successive bar on the way up. 

![Apr12JGB.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaJgZS9JQRXN3TiVdfD72GjNnzPf24TPjmenSUHtX1kiR/Apr12JGB.JPG)

Chart from April 12. Trade entry bar (at 15089) is not ideal as it opened, dropped to trigger the trade and went off to make a new high. Always uncomfortable when you want the chart to go down.  

![Apr17JGB.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmWfSHLMQvidtcanqMQ767HmXDqLZ5hWgQrpUaD1nv7EFY/Apr17JGB.JPG)

Another North Korean missile test does not help this trade. Early trade on April 18 in Japan heartens me somewhat - with only one stock in my Japan portfolio down after solid leads from US markets on Easter Monday. 

<h3>Expiring Options</h3>

**USDCHF** April 14, 2017 strike 0.9665 Call Option was exercised. This was a 12 month option which was set up as bull call spread. I have already closed out the sold leg for a profit. Breakeven is 0.9983 compared to current price of 1.0039. I will run this position as a spot position and stop loss has been placed at 0.9993 which is better than breakeven. I will trail this stop loss behind each reversal. 

I talked in TIB47 a month ago about where the charts might go. I was thinking that price would continue cycling upwards - i.e., make higher lows and high highs. Well it did not. I was wrong. Price made a lower low and a lower high but it did respect some key levels (the middle yellow dotted line).  Let's look at the chart. 

![Apr14USDCHF.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQkpQovfY3mYPe5T3DFx2JdqBX2gymNzHHVK9KxdzDwcB/Apr14USDCHF.JPG)

My bought option contract is shown with strike 0.9665 call option bought in April 2016 (looks like a nothing trade until late November when price passes breakeven and heads toward 100% profit and then pulls back Note: the 100% profit does not consider the premium received from the sold call = profit is better than this level). 

Now what might happen next? It looks to me like price is forming a channel which looks about the same width as the last one (between the two dotted green lines). If the Federal Reserve moves interest rates twice more this year, I expect price to move upwards as sharply as it did from November 2016 (see the  left blue arrow cloned across to current situation). That will take this trade past 100% profitable comfortably. As this is a spot position, time is not a factor other than funding swap interest (Means: I have borrowed Swiss Francs to buy the US Dollars) . The problem I see is if price drops back to the bottom of the channel and takes out the stop loss (marked in red) for a trade marginally better than breakeven. This is a likely outcome as Switzerland is still seen as a safe haven trade. 

<h3>Cryptocurency</h3>

**Bitcoin** (BTCUSD): Friday correction to price happened on Thursday last week (not on the normal Friday) and took out my stop loss for a $34 per contract loss  or 3%. I have a new theory about the timing for these price corrections - maybe a Bitcoin miner is selling Bitcoin at the end of each week to cover costs which have to be paid in fiat currency. 

<h3>Currency Trades</h3>

Experiement with new volatility reversal signals continue. I did close out all positions before the weekend for a 0.32% profit

**GBPJPY** long: I did some work on the daily chart (levels come from the daily) and the 4 hour chart. 

![Apr13GBPJPY.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVhpyn5dzzWL5R5JKzL3UQiCaU79b5cNAwdtNMy72tVAy/Apr13GBPJPY.JPG)

What I liked was that price was testing a level defined by the rising medium term trend line (from Brexit lows), a horizontal level from January 2016  which coincides with a 0.5 Fibonacci level (the coloured segment is the Fib retracement from the daily). 

**EURAUD** short: I epxressed some concerns about price in TIB62. Best way to deal with those = take the profits on offer. I did. 


Cautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas. I do participate in an investing group - some of the ideas flow from there.

Images: I own the rights to use and edit the Buy Sell image. The French election headlines snippet comes from Google Search. All other images are created using my various trading and charting platforms. They are all my own work

Tickers: I monitor my portfolios using Yahoo Finance. The ticker symbols used are Yahoo Finance tickers

Charts: http://mymark.mx/TradingView - this is a free charting package. I have a Pro subscription to get access to real time forex prices

April 14/17, 2017