![1c27ee9fbe415d51.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQCmqES6HLt1z694hvigZQ1Njh19hAHcTD8Ls3TCy9Yhu/1c27ee9fbe415d51.png) 比特币的价格在上个月创下69,000的新高之后。就一路下跌,这个月一直在5万左右挣扎,但似乎并没有多少人相信熊市来了。发现很多人都提到了一个叫做plan B的网络大V。此人的模型在8,9,10月份的。价格预测与现实惊人的吻合。被网友能当成神一样的人。而它关于11月份比特币价格的预测是惊人的98,000美元一枚。但是今天已经24号了。11月份结束的时候能够守住58,000美元的一线就不错了。群众的感情就是这样,来的快去的也快,尤其现在网上有很多人用中国足球的梗来嘲笑这位大神,说留给plan B的时间已经不多了。如果在中国男足参加的足球赛上,解说员说出了“留给中国队的时间已经不多了。”这句话,中国男足基本上就是必败无疑。当然群体是无理性无意识的,理性而独立的个人,是不会选择凡事从众的。在对plan B的预测下判断之前,我们还是应该看一下这个模型背后的逻辑。 价格预测实际上是一个估值的问题。常见的估值就是股票的估值。因为股票代表着分享商业公司的收益的权利。所以股票的估值就是将公司未来赚取的收益折现到当下。但是比特币是一种数字现金,是交易媒介,本身并没有产生收益的能力。所以它不能采用和股票一样的估值方法。plan B采用的是存量增量比模型。之前读书打卡读《货币未来》这本书,其中就专门谈到过这个问题,存量增量比是衡量一种货币软硬程度的主要指标。以黄金为例。黄金在地壳中的储量是固定的。经过人类历史几千年的开采。已经有相当的存量了。而现在每年新开采出来的黄金就是增量。用存量除以增量就得到了存量增量比例。现在黄金每年的增量连2%都不到。所以黄金的硬度是相当高的,也被称为硬通货。相比之下,纸币就是彻头彻尾的软通货了。看到一个数据,由于疫情期间滥发救助和印钞。现在流通中的美元有40%是2020年之后发行的。所以现在美国出现了史无前例的通货膨胀。可以看到存量增量比可以用来衡量货币或者作为货币的商品的坚挺程度。一个有意思的例子是。在第2次伊拉克战争期间。联军将伊拉克的中央银行也作为了空袭目标。炸毁了伊拉克中央银行的印钞机。在这之后的很长一段时间内。伊拉克的货币并没有崩溃,反而变得更加坚挺,伊拉克民众对手中货币的信心反倒加强了。 回到比特币。比特币的通胀速率或者说存量增量比完全是由算法预先确定的。比特币的通胀来自于矿工记账时的区块奖励。这个奖励每4年减半一次。也就是说存量增量比每4年提高一倍。由于这些数字都是确定的。所以这也就为比特币的估值和价格预测提供了非常确定的依据。plan B的预测方法就是依据这个存量增量模型。我觉得这个模型的科学性和可信度还是很高的。但是就像天气预报一样,越短期越难预测准确。所以就算11月底比特币没有收到98,000美元一线。我对这个模型依然有信心的。按照这个模型的预测,在下一次减半之后,也就是2024年。比特币就会涨到100万美元一枚。
post_id | 95,773,413 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
author | cheva | ||||||
permlink | planb-11-9-8 | ||||||
category | hive-180932 | ||||||
json_metadata | {"tags":["cn","whalepower","lifestyle","life","economic","cryptocurrency","bitcoin","zzan","dblog","diamondtoken","marlians","upfundme","actnearn"],"image":["https:\/\/cdn.steemitimages.com\/DQmQCmqES6HLt1z694hvigZQ1Njh19hAHcTD8Ls3TCy9Yhu\/1c27ee9fbe415d51.png"],"app":"steemcn\/0.1","format":"markdown"} | ||||||
created | 2021-11-24 09:12:54 | ||||||
last_update | 2021-11-24 09:12:54 | ||||||
depth | 0 | ||||||
children | 0 | ||||||
net_rshares | 14,581,360,514,382 | ||||||
last_payout | 2021-12-01 09:12:54 | ||||||
cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 | ||||||
total_payout_value | 6.810 SBD | ||||||
curator_payout_value | 5.188 SBD | ||||||
pending_payout_value | 0.000 SBD | ||||||
promoted | 0.000 SBD | ||||||
body_length | 1,317 | ||||||
author_reputation | 573,969,597,438,882 | ||||||
root_title | 神准的planb模型,11月9万8的预言要落空了? | ||||||
beneficiaries |
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max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 SBD | ||||||
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author_curate_reward | "" |
voter | weight | wgt% | rshares | pct | time |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ace108 | 0 | 158,911,469,352 | 11% | ||
cnfund | 0 | 6,805,140,776 | 73.07% | ||
justyy | 0 | 6,256,116,341,264 | 13.41% | ||
nuagnorab | 0 | 210,286,900,476 | 73.07% | ||
aaronli | 0 | 85,849,622,183 | 73.07% | ||
marylaw | 0 | 7,044,293,805 | 73.07% | ||
shenchensucc | 0 | 108,607,641,611 | 73.07% | ||
joeyarnoldvn | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | ||
susanli3769 | 0 | 85,754,096,040 | 73.07% | ||
davidmendel | 0 | 20,299,977,569 | 73.07% | ||
mrpointp | 0 | 13,599,351,743 | 73.07% | ||
pixelfan | 0 | 27,657,607,651 | 3.95% | ||
everrich | 0 | 5,796,331,288 | 73.07% | ||
syh7758520 | 0 | 6,784,756,237 | 73.07% | ||
tvb | 0 | 246,015,317 | 73.07% | ||
sunnyjolly | 0 | 2,329,335,306 | 73.07% | ||
mrspointm | 0 | 19,814,165,170 | 73.07% | ||
liumei | 0 | 11,296,156,706 | 73.07% | ||
acactus1013 | 0 | 4,329,926,570 | 73.07% | ||
rosatravels | 0 | 33,323,971,695 | 73.07% | ||
minloulou | 0 | 3,566,975,877 | 73.07% | ||
jsquare | 0 | 391,259,050,681 | 5% | ||
sunray | 0 | 7,424,470,006 | 73.07% | ||
gtpjfoodbank | 0 | 11,457,934,049 | 50% | ||
investegg | 0 | 67,671,349,864 | 79% | ||
winniex | 0 | 6,325,656,933 | 73.07% | ||
qifenggan | 0 | 5,248,483,445 | 73.07% | ||
windowglass | 0 | 588,733,793,835 | 73.07% | ||
cnbuddy | 0 | 881,516,663,413 | 76.89% | ||
iamafra | 0 | 69,808,660,408 | 73.07% | ||
angelina6688 | 0 | 47,385,010,165 | 73.07% | ||
auleo | 0 | 44,951,286,259 | 73.07% | ||
cheva | 0 | 265,031,769,191 | 73.07% | ||
yikloongye | 0 | 20,567,917 | 35% | ||
johnhooi | 0 | 151,290,718 | 35% | ||
maiyude | 0 | 200,965,058,734 | 73.07% | ||
yumisee | 0 | 543,062,171 | 35% | ||
joeliew | 0 | 1,750,684,737 | 35% | ||
wilhb81 | 0 | 317,015,666,678 | 73.07% | ||
emmali | 0 | 10,888,045,487 | 73.07% | ||
youandme | 0 | 13,341,214,132 | 73.07% | ||
kirato | 0 | 2,659,119,804 | 73.07% | ||
cherryng | 0 | 4,986,380,154 | 73.07% | ||
hkit98 | 0 | 123,252,372 | 35% | ||
elvinmas001 | 0 | 105,574,785 | 35% | ||
watersoo | 0 | 1,129,077,452 | 35% | ||
vamos-amigo | 0 | 1,557,298,431 | 35% | ||
nostalgic1212 | 0 | 53,196,025,333 | 73.07% | ||
iipoh06 | 0 | 191,485,202 | 35% | ||
annabellenoelle | 0 | 17,930,099 | 35% | ||
pizzapai | 0 | 1,371,748,636 | 35% | ||
also.einstein | 0 | 9,138,428,714 | 73.07% | ||
yethui | 0 | 3,585,256,939 | 35% | ||
riczlook | 0 | 158,048,332 | 35% | ||
andrewnoel | 0 | 26,327,043 | 35% | ||
ericet | 0 | 35,587,981,031 | 73.07% | ||
onepercentbetter | 0 | 31,007,220,803 | 73.07% | ||
aellly | 0 | 108,329,612,498 | 73.07% | ||
huangzuomin | 0 | 192,869,832,709 | 73.07% | ||
sshappydayz | 0 | 3,092,649,633 | 100% | ||
statsexpert | 0 | 46,891,063,219 | 73.07% | ||
janicechua | 0 | 24,540,918,799 | 73.07% | ||
andrewma | 0 | 26,795,041,016 | 73.07% | ||
softmetal | 0 | 8,037,039,944 | 73.07% | ||
liuzg | 0 | 132,691,454,245 | 73.07% | ||
tanlikming | 0 | 1,937,504,427 | 73.07% | ||
honoru | 0 | 8,839,260,592 | 73.07% | ||
hmayak | 0 | 2,311,347,580 | 73.07% | ||
cn-malaysia | 0 | 1,498,389,229 | 35% | ||
robertyan | 0 | 7,043,937,113 | 73.07% | ||
team-cn | 0 | 43,740,411,337 | 25% | ||
abcallen | 0 | 33,259,155,427 | 73.07% | ||
steemeditor.bot | 0 | 1,512,480,429 | 20% | ||
sunai | 0 | 67,884,798,344 | 73.07% | ||
robin.han | 0 | 4,232,887,037 | 73.07% | ||
julian2013 | 0 | 72,877,135,400 | 73.07% | ||
edwardchan | 0 | 1,861,730,466 | 73.07% | ||
raynopssgold | 0 | 2,494,681,891 | 73.07% | ||
reviewme | 0 | 69,167,101 | 35% | ||
slientstorm | 0 | 4,172,683,683 | 73.07% | ||
pet.society | 0 | 3,101,928,533 | 73.07% | ||
annepink | 0 | 59,206,554,761 | 73.07% | ||
cherryzz | 0 | 21,605,403,642 | 73.07% | ||
buo | 0 | 10,023,922,288 | 73.07% | ||
teamcn-shop | 0 | 43,123,997,922 | 73.07% | ||
uoid | 0 | 46,557,225 | 4% | ||
pollygonewild | 0 | 19,431,681 | 35% | ||
foodblogresteem | 0 | 0 | 35% | ||
yunki | 0 | 10,355,899,539 | 73.07% | ||
cloudblade | 0 | 75,309,759,180 | 73.07% | ||
kelvinzhang | 0 | 4,938,745,365 | 73.07% | ||
honey00 | 0 | 7,343,148,053 | 73.07% | ||
ashuisme | 0 | 0 | 35% | ||
morningshine | 0 | 64,516,981,749 | 73.07% | ||
cn-activity | 0 | 2,718,538,505 | 73.07% | ||
cnlonglive | 0 | 23,726,821,922 | 73.07% | ||
jacoblai | 0 | 16,119,526 | 35% | ||
berrydeng | 0 | 7,654,386,670 | 73.07% | ||
davidchen | 0 | 4,622,550,311 | 73.07% | ||
bobdavids | 0 | 14,786,109 | 35% | ||
teamcn-fund | 0 | 889,810,242 | 73.07% | ||
cecilian | 0 | 11,203,652,470 | 73.07% | ||
good2believe | 0 | 5,402,436,480 | 73.07% | ||
devyleona | 0 | 3,964,106,056 | 73.07% | ||
happygoluckynow | 0 | 2,589,995,344 | 73.07% | ||
mayiloveyou | 0 | 2,488,230,588 | 73.07% | ||
goodsimplelife | 0 | 2,484,779,004 | 73.07% | ||
yanhan | 0 | 69,718,740,994 | 73.07% | ||
walker886 | 0 | 599,438,308 | 73.07% | ||
zhongyefu | 0 | 3,467,353,195 | 73.07% | ||
j-car | 0 | 92,950,637,937 | 8% | ||
m15197972567 | 0 | 4,073,252,236 | 73.07% | ||
bossku | 0 | 47,682,055 | 35% | ||
baiyumo | 0 | 5,074,181 | 17.5% | ||
dailyke20 | 0 | 10,295,949,278 | 35% | ||
kgame | 0 | 2,692,120,178 | 73.07% | ||
hertz300 | 0 | 14,732,768,203 | 73.07% | ||
cxy | 0 | 0 | 17.5% | ||
delta-clan | 0 | 1,423,959,203 | 73.07% | ||
zzan.hmy | 0 | 147,466,395,342 | 1.31% | ||
steem-drivers | 0 | 6,156,015,359 | 73.07% | ||
cn-zzang | 0 | 987,340,178 | 73.07% | ||
cn-sct | 0 | 241,437,916 | 73.07% | ||
xiaoq.sports | 0 | 10,753,959,015 | 73.07% | ||
cn-marlians | 0 | 2,040,774,677 | 73.07% | ||
gillianlien | 0 | 12,751,007,689 | 73.07% | ||
stevewu | 0 | 483,605,521 | 73.07% | ||
dw-g8m8k1042298 | 0 | 14,269,468 | 35% | ||
dw-fn0uh101562u | 0 | 14,269,800 | 35% | ||
annzhao | 0 | 439,631,106 | 73.07% | ||
cn-trail | 0 | 8,181,564,278 | 73.07% | ||
lnakuma | 0 | 9,326,030,906 | 73.07% | ||
bo022 | 0 | 4,316,454,633 | 73.07% | ||
gillianlienmap | 0 | 3,164,159,396 | 73.07% | ||
lovequeen | 0 | 188,339,308,598 | 73.07% | ||
dev.supporters | 0 | 559,527,578,808 | 10% | ||
familyonline-tv | 0 | 3,426,347,112 | 73.07% | ||
bo022022 | 0 | 4,769,802,102 | 73.07% | ||
dryuen | 0 | 23,671,957,330 | 73.07% | ||
sweetime | 0 | 713,689,488 | 73.07% | ||
capehorn | 0 | 267,183,942 | 73.07% | ||
choseal-leo | 0 | 118,288,852,163 | 73.07% | ||
tenki | 0 | 11,198,090,606 | 73.07% | ||
lucienyong | 0 | 9,756,052,582 | 73.07% | ||
xiaomalailiao | 0 | 20,019,225,709 | 73.07% | ||
iris08 | 0 | 9,860,478,782 | 73.07% | ||
yuyusong | 0 | 25,105,587,646 | 73.07% | ||
sheya | 0 | 11,529,602,804 | 73.07% | ||
laplanss2020 | 0 | 5,064,056,912 | 73.07% | ||
xiaohuangniu | 0 | 47,559,354,143 | 73.07% | ||
caimao317 | 0 | 3,528,587,006 | 73.07% | ||
zete | 0 | 5,587,634,579 | 73.07% | ||
leungyi | 0 | 5,401,126,301 | 73.07% | ||
ericaliu | 0 | 6,148,380,793 | 73.07% | ||
nutbox.mine | 0 | 1,565,493,030,083 | 8.36% | ||
yikoutian | 0 | 2,448,950,945 | 73.07% | ||
little-yellow | 0 | 3,068,393,089 | 73.07% | ||
b1-3 | 0 | 2,265,561,039 | 73.07% | ||
cittriy | 0 | 4,634,767,987 | 73.07% | ||
wo5 | 0 | 11,615,945,866 | 73.07% | ||
rh22 | 0 | 9,818,541,042 | 73.07% | ||
kaylaway | 0 | 2,668,782,954 | 73.07% | ||
talalala | 0 | 3,099,936,857 | 73.07% | ||
haoeeicc | 0 | 2,549,989,867 | 73.07% | ||
w711jy | 0 | 3,610,364,808 | 73.07% | ||
tt0215 | 0 | 2,582,751,942 | 73.07% | ||
zyf321 | 0 | 323,942,271 | 73.07% | ||
luna9413 | 0 | 202,143,176 | 73.07% | ||
iloveher413 | 0 | 201,149,088 | 73.07% | ||
moringtree | 0 | 2,939,153,518 | 73.07% | ||
white-bai | 0 | 5,582,620,672 | 100% | ||
jennychen | 0 | 7,223,123,585 | 73.07% | ||
circlebubble | 0 | 18,111,821,673 | 73.07% | ||
shery820 | 0 | 218,230,016 | 73.07% | ||
fly123 | 0 | 899,248,857 | 73.07% | ||
princesstai | 0 | 199,146,247 | 73.07% | ||
wanlichalu | 0 | 199,120,290 | 73.07% | ||
linna188 | 0 | 2,203,379,351 | 73.07% | ||
wow123 | 0 | 493,928,916 | 73.07% | ||
blue0 | 0 | 535,802,390 | 4% | ||
dreamstar | 0 | 198,698,290 | 73.07% | ||
xiefei | 0 | 295,626,584 | 73.07% | ||
diochen | 0 | 481,733,678 | 73.07% | ||
zhouxiaodong | 0 | 316,294,041 | 73.07% | ||
nutbox.awesome | 0 | 1,399,235,034 | 100% | ||
skyheaven | 0 | 198,235,956 | 73.07% | ||
zhongnanxiaoyu | 0 | 4,746,446,037 | 73.07% | ||
zzq737646341 | 0 | 544,849,101 | 30% | ||
paintmage | 0 | 13,048,446,365 | 73.07% | ||
everlandd | 0 | 25,627,733,644 | 73.07% | ||
wuyeyangguang-1 | 0 | 2,705,306,740 | 73.07% | ||
buddy-forever | 0 | 98,405,423,120 | 100% | ||
legendao | 0 | 2,432,621,533 | 73.07% | ||
lj7785 | 0 | 2,560,573,399 | 73.07% |