OMG Steem Price is Falling WTF?!?! - Why Steem is Probably Okay and How You Can Help It by jenkinrocket

View this thread on steempeak.com
· @jenkinrocket · (edited)
$1.87
OMG Steem Price is Falling WTF?!?! - Why Steem is Probably Okay and How You Can Help It
<center>https://www.pehub.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/doom-gloom.jpg</center>
If you get nothing else out of this article please take the following line with you: **Steem is *supposed* to fall**. 

If want to know why, keep reading. 

Firstly, somewhere on the order of every few days or once a week I see an article titled similarly to the first part (before the dash) of the title of this post. It's not too surprising. They tend to make a decent amount of coin reliably. 

However, while I certainly don't think the authors intend to be dishonest (most of them), these articles are incredibly misleading and hurt faith in the platform (which can effect things like user retention and the amount of people powering up... which in turn actually *can* hurt the price of Steem and SBD).

Now, in my research I've discovered that this is hardly the only article talking about [why the price of Steem always falls](https://steemit.com/steem/@xeldal/the-price-of-steem-will-always-go-down-it-s-supposed-to-the-magic-of-steem-power). However, I think that as this is a relatively early stage of the Steemit platform these kinds of articles need to be written periodically to combat the other kind, which are much more prevalent.

# Why the Price of Steem Falls
<center>http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/11/08/article-0-0390E9B3000005DC-576_233x333.jpg</center>

To make sure everything is completely clear, we'll be using the [Steem Whitepaper](https://steem.io/SteemWhitePaper.pdf) to show why Steem prices are falling/will fall. Let's start with this tidbit:

>STEEM is constantly increasing in supply by 100% per year due to non-SMD incentives. Someone who holds STEEM without converting it to SP is diluted by approximately 0.19% per day. While the rate may appear high, for transactions that take less than 10 days, it is still cheaper than credit card processing fees. Furthermore, the daily token creation is insignificant next to the daily volatility.<sup>1</sup>

In other words, more STEEM is always being added daily, so this creates an inflation effect. But wait, isn't that bad? Well, not necessarily. You see, STEEM is *meant* to do this. It's a short term investment vehicle meant to be held for no longer than a day or two before being converted to SBD (STEEM Dollars) or SP (Steem Power). These two forms of the currency are designed to be much more resistant to the inflationary effect. The whitepaper even says as much: 

>Once STEEM has been purchased it should be converted into SP or SMD to mitigate the impact of dilution over the long-term. <sup>2</sup>

STEEM isn't meant to be held for long periods. New STEEM is created each day and the majority of it goes to existing STEEM holders. SBD adjust the amount of STEEM they are worth according to the inflation of STEEM and it's worth compared to the dollar:

>The majority of inflation is actually an accounting artifact rather than true reallocation of wealth. 90% of non-SMD inflation is distributed back to existing holders of STEEM proportional to the STEEM value of their SP balance, making inflation more of a “split”. Only about 10% of non-SMD inflation redistributes ownership in the network.<sup>3</sup>

And in another section...

>The increase in the supply of STEEM is mostly an accounting artifact created by the desire to avoid charging negative interest rates on liquid STEEM. Negative interest rates would complicate the lives of exchanges which would have to adjust user balances to account for the negative rate of return of STEEM held on deposit.<sup>4</sup>

<center>http://starrfmonline.com/kitnes/data/2016/09/14/1.9858789.jpg</center>
But.... Hyperinflation. As I said before, STEEM is **not** where the value is held. It's held in SBD and SP. Yes, the inflation does become a problem, but not for the reasons you think:

>A side effect of increasing the supply is that the network will require ever increasing levels of precision in its accounting. On average the number of bits required to represent a typical account will grow by 1.3 per year. It will only take 10 years before numbers involved no longer fit within the 53 bit precision supported by JavaScript or the 64 bit precision supported by CPUs. Over time the magnitude of the numbers involved grows beyond human scale and comprehension; furthermore, the least significant bits have so little economic value as to render them meaningless.<sup>5</sup>

In other words there are numerical limits on the amount of STEEM (or anything) that a computer can currently handle. In order to prevent things from getting out of control STEEM has a novel solution:

>In order to compensate for the ever increasing precision, the STEEM network performs a 10:1 “reverse split” every 32,000,000 blocks (about 3 years). At this point in time all balances of STEEM are divided by 10 and all prices are multiplied by 10. Cryptocurrency exchanges will have to suspend trading around this time and update the account balances and price history to reflect the “reverse split” before resuming trading.<sup>6</sup>

That's right: every three years all STEEM is essentially divided by 10 to 'reset' the process over again. 

So, to reiterate:
<center>https://img0.etsystatic.com/013/1/5236959/il_340x270.466625400_simd.jpg</center>

-STEEM is supposed to fall in price and is designed this way to encourage long-term over short-term investment of resources into the currency and platform.

-The true (long-term) value is held in STEEM Dollars (SBD) and STEEM Power (SP). A unit of STEEM Dollars is basically an amount of STEEM that is close to a dollar in value. Though more STEEM might be required to approximate that value, the STEEM Dollar itself will always be close, making it resistant to inflation. 

-STEEM Power is the longest term investment, holders only being able to withdraw it over about two years. It's resistant to inflation because most of the new STEEM created goes to existing SP holders as more SP. 

-STEEM IS DOING FINE RIGHT NOW. There were some decent arguments recently that it was falling a bit faster than it should be, but it's begun to fall at a pretty decently shallow rate recently (with some spikes even).

## How You Can Help

Now, some of you might have noticed something strange about the title. If STEEM is okay, why in the world would you need to help it? 

Well, as people that have put time and energy (sweat equity) in the platform we have a vested interest in making a culture that helps the platform survive. Little things implemented now will help as STEEM and Steemit become more popular.

One thing you can do is accumulate/avoid selling your SBD. Remember, we are the ones that determine how much our effort is worth. If we sell SBD for just anything... we'll get just anything. If we dump it at the fastest opportunity, that sends the market a certain message. If you need it, use it, of course. But try not to.

The second thing is to start making it a thing to give ourselves a small 'tax' on our STEEM earnings. If everyone started to use just a small amount to power up instead of selling it all, this could really help keep the price stable as the platform grows.

<center>Follow: [@jenkinrocket](https://steemit.com/@jenkinrocket)</center>

<center><img src="https://www.steemimg.com/images/2016/09/29/Enlight1ed91d.jpg" alt="Enlight1ed91d.jpg" border="0" /></center>

<center>http://i58.photobucket.com/albums/g265/jenkinrocket/jenkinrocket%201_zpsdshvhvwv.png</center>

References:
1, 2, & 3: Page 8 - Steemit Whitepaper.
4 & 5: Page 38 - Steemit Whitepaper.
6: Page 39 - Steemit Whitepaper.

Check out the whitepaper [here](https://steem.io/SteemWhitePaper.pdf) for more information.
Check out @sykochica's great article on how Steem is generated [here](https://steemit.com/steemit/@sykochica/where-does-the-money-come-from-ambassador-toolkit-item).
And check out my series for absolute beginners to cryptocurrencies [here](https://steemit.com/cryptoschool/@jenkinrocket/cryptocurrency-for-absolute-beginners-what-is-a-blockchain).
Images:
[1](https://www.pehub.com/2013/04/triago-quarterly-the-great-pe-restructuring-has-begun/) [2](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-1327719/HOME-TRUTHS-We-want-refund-fixing-pipe-leak.html) [3](http://starrfmonline.com/comments-1.9858808) [4](https://img0.etsystatic.com/013/1/5236959/il_340x270.466625400_simd.jpg)
👍  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 28 others
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@jrcornel · (edited)
Great post and good points! My only comment would be that currently steem is falling much faster than it was designed to... The dilution should account for roughly a 2% decline per week on average... it is falling closer to 8% per day on average... things need to be tweaked.
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@jenkinrocket ·
Yes, that's been a real concern. But if the trend of the last week or so continues, then we should be okay. But yes, it's clear there will have to be some adjustments. I just wanted to counter act all of the negative "Steem is falling" articles and make it clear that we are not in as bad a position as normally portrayed.
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@jrcornel ·
I think the only reason for the bounce last week was that @ned and @dantheman were able to instill some short term confidence by saying they were going to tweak things that may counteract the supply/demand imbalance. If they don't follow through with that in the very near future, like this week, I would expect the acceleration to the downside to start right back up again shortly...
👍  
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@anarcho-andrei ·
I wonder if enough people bothered to read the whitepaper or numerous breakdowns of the white paper to understand that the inflationary process that goes on with regards to STEEM is on a three-year cycle.  While I did feel like STEEM was losing value a bit faster than it should have (and I think sell-offs from speculators had more to do with that than anything else), like you said, the drop in price of STEEM on exchanges has become a lot shallower recently.
👍  
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@jenkinrocket ·
Agreed. The fact that it seems to be stabilizing is great news (there was even a spike recently), now we have to do what we can to make sure it keeps up! Thanks for reading and for the comment :).
👍  
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@justtryme90 ·
Yep which is why accumulating vests is important! Your vested shares in the platform will not change even when the number of steem is reverse split  10:1.  :)
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@anarcho-andrei ·
Exactly, I'm looking toward 2019 with anticipation. :D
👍  
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@reneenouveau ·
So... when we are getting paid out in Steem, it's not best to let it just sit there, right? We only have two choices sell it at the dirt cheap price or powerup with it, correct? 
I don't love either of these options, which fuels my indecision and just leaves it sitting there.
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@jenkinrocket ·
Yeah, most definitely DON'T leave it sitting there. If you don't want to power up, you can convert it to Steem Dollars, which are far more stable. Next to Steem, click on the arrow and go down to "Buy or Sell". This is where you can convert it to Steem Dollars, where it'll be a bit more stable. 

Alternatively you can sell your Steem like usual, buy Steem Dollars from an exchange, and then transfer them back to the platform (Steemit). Although, to be honest, I've never done it that way.
👍  
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@reneenouveau ·
I thought turning it into Steem Dollars would still subject you to a terrible conversion rate? No?
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@getonthetrain ·
I've never sold any of mine
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@jenkinrocket ·
Really awesome. Folks like you help the currency.
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@justtryme90 · (edited)
Me neither. Well I take that back, I sold 13 steem when it was $4 and then bought back wayyy more later. :) My investment is in the future of this platform, not minuscule profits right now!
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@sykochica ·
This is awesome! Ty for writing it! 
Resteemed!
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@barcisz ·
Very helpful post. Resteemed! &#128578;
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@cryptomancer ·
Thanks for this reminder of how Steem inflation works.  It's definitely good to periodically refresh everyone's knowledge of the whitepaper, as I think many people don't bother to read it or tend to forget the details over time.

I personally am not at all worried about the Steem price and am enjoying the opportunity to top up my Steem Power at low prices.  But I think some people may be concerned because the price has been dropping faster than the Steem Power "interest" we get makes up for it.  In an ideal market, the price decline would exactly match the inflation rate, but clearly that hasn't been the case.

You say that price decline is slowing.  I'm not so sure, though, seems to me it's been accelerating in percentage terms.  Remember that a 25% drop from a low price will be a lower number in absolute terms than a 25% drop from a high price.  So it seems as if the price curve is evening out, but that's only true if you ignore the percentages and focus on absolute price differences.  I have buy orders staggered 25% apart throughout the order book on Poloniex.  It used to be these orders would execute once a week, or once every couple weeks.  But lately it seems like they've been getting hit only a few days apart.

I haven't done any objective number crunching to back this up, but my gut is telling me we haven't found the bottom of this downtrend yet.  And I'm glad we haven't.  I want more time to increase my Steem Power stash as much as possible!
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@lemouth ·
One of the best posts on the topic I have read so far!
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@jemkob ·
I still can't understand the logic behind everything, all i know is steem is building a new generation.
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@virtualgrowth ·
https://img1.steemit.com/192x192/https://s15.postimg.org/hlkpghmkr/Spot_light.png
[Included in Steemprentice Spotlight](https://steemit.com/steemprentice/@virtualgrowth/steemprentice-spotlight-sharing-steemit-stuff-and-skills) :)
Tweeted by [SteemLand](https://twitter.com/Steem_Land)
http://www.onlinesignature.in/animateText/text785697588.gif
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