《下屆總統誰當選？經濟學家說了算》 by leungyi

hive-155234 · @leungyi · Jan 8 '21

$0.32

《下屆總統誰當選？經濟學家說了算》

去年八月，[曾寫過一篇文章介紹《下屆總統誰當選？經濟學家說了算》一書](https://matters.news/@leungyi/%E4%B8%8B%E5%B1%86%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E8%AA%B0%E7%95%B6%E9%81%B8-%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E5%AD%B8%E5%AE%B6%E8%AA%AA%E4%BA%86%E7%AE%97-%E6%9C%9F%E8%B2%A8%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%B8%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C-bafyreiblsglpnefp4wlcukjaf4ivkcgbu37gpjgjp6ccfemcot3tehx3bi)，其英文原作《EconoPower》出版於2007年，中文譯本出版於2011年，由經濟學家馬克史庫森（Mark Skousen）所著，以經濟觀點解讀37個熱門議題。

其中一章提到，以教育和研究為前提、非牟利的愛荷華電子市場（Iowa Electronic Markets，簡稱IEM），會出售美國總統選舉結果的期貨合約，讓交易員以現金下注。結果顯示，IEM交易員預測的選舉結果，比專業民調機構準確和便宜，於1988年至2016年期間，8次選舉他們猜中了6次，唯二猜錯的，是小布殊（2000）和特朗普（2016）當選。

最新一次大選，IEM仍有運作，數據顯示民主黨候選人拜登一直領先（見下圖），如今大局已定，令IEM的預測再添一次成功紀錄。

![Pres20_WTA.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTgBNPG4bHHf3hU4Yd6dDwuNXxgD2F6w13aBgKxbwAeXv/Pres20_WTA.png)
Image Source: https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu

👍 justyy, ldsn001, ety001, rosatravels, jianan, laplanss2020, steemeditor.bot, blockcleaner, happyukgo, foodielifestyle, sweet-jenny8, ericandryan, dongfengman, witnesstools, sexybeach, ilovecoding, cplusplus, dailychina, dailystats, superbing, dailyfortune, justyy222, steemfuckeos, suckmydick, ethanlee, laiyuehta, turtlegraphics, chromebook, anxin, justsoso, woolfe19861008, longhash, fanso, lilypang22, serenazz, leodec, morningshlne, deepcrypti8, wongshiylng, erlcet, llfestyle, cnfish, weicomenew, ffbank, joelone, baymaxos, regals, steemitvip, zens, gogoabc, deepthinking, twinsnicole, ayanamoon, aaronstar, zasilla, yedda, yuxuan, vincenthan, nean, moobear, daxiang, geass, kikima, kangnajiang, and 3 others

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