First the stuff I don't really trust. China is still showing only 30+ new cases and <7000 active confirmed cases with 2000+ Serious/Critical. To me those numbers just don't make sense. If true then COVID can't possibly be as easy to spread as the numbers from the rest of the world shows. OTOH, if they're even close to the truth an alternative explanation is that the "mild cases" are way more common than previously thought, like 95+% of all cases. that would be great. But I just don't see that in any numbers yet. We are really still in the early stages, so we need more data.
Next Iran. Iran is reporting 1200+ new cases for a total of 20,000 or so, with 1200+ deaths and no reported S/C cases. As I pointed out yesterday, there is something funny going on in Iran. Satellite pictures show trench graves in known graveyards, and non-govt sources claim many more deaths (2-4 times depending on source) and Khamenei hasn't been seen in public for about 10 days, nor on video in at least a week. He's 80. There are unconfirmed reports on a split between the military and the clerics on virus policy and containment. We may be seeing an internal struggle that prevents good data getting out. And almost all reported confirmed Middle East cases can be traced directly back to Iran. Iran, like Italy, had/has a lot of Chinese workers in the country and is part of the One Road and One Belt thing. For sure Chinese workers were "rehabbing" a nuclear reactor in Qom, where the main outbreak occurred.
On other fronts. As always, waiting until later for French and Italian (especially) data. They seem to collect it and dump as the end of their day.
Spain, at around 4 PM their time, has 2300+ new cases, 20,000+ cases, 1000+ deaths, 150 new deaths, and 900+ S/C cases. Their penetration rate has moved up then to 437/1M/ Italy is currently at 679/1M. Both are very high and indicate, I think, how bad it could get. The Italian rate would predict 250,000 cases in the US. But no other countries have anything like that rate. And China (remember) shows only a 56/1M rate. Unbelievable.
Germany (around 6 PM there) has gone over the 3000 new cases mark ( 18,000 total) but still has only 52 deaths. I'm guessing early detection and good treatment there. Switzerland 5000 cases 700 new and 51 deaths though makes me wonder about the difference between the two. 2 S/C cases in Germany and none in Switzerland also make me wonder.
UK not reporting new cases yet, but with only 3200 cases have 184 deaths. Someone is going to have a field day sorting out all these differences in OEDC countries. and guessing why.
Netherlands 3000 cases (500 new) and 106 deaths. Maybe population density is driving death rates? Can't tell.
Lots of other EU countries have penetration rates of 180/1M to 200+/1M so far. Can't tell whether the differences are real or report driven or testing regime or what. But most have low death rates.Basically, if you're going to get the virus, best do it in a country with good medical infrastructure.
And to get on one of my hobby horses, only the UK has a total single payer system. Italy and Spain are close to that. Hmmmm.
US data trickling in. Federal system for sure. So far today 767 new cases (Boy, would I just love to know total tests taken and total tests negative -- we'll probably never know that until it's basically over) for a current total of 14,500 or so. 218 deaths and 64 S/C. I'm keeping an eye on that S/C number because it can't possibly be right and is rarely updated. It is the number we need to know in order to estimate how many ventilators we will actually need. I sure hope the number is not being suppressed to the public. Still only 125 claimed recovered.
An interesting piece sent to me by a friend (unfortunately the piece doesn't link to anything else that I can easily find) shows that basically the more cases of malaria a country the fewer cases of COVID it has. That is "in favor" of the usefulness of using anti-malarial drugs for the author I think. However, I would hesitate to make that link for several reasons.
1) Those countries are Third World or Emerging countries mostly and are not real good at providing good data on much of anything. They lack the basic data gathering and reporting infrastructure.
2) They are almost all at the opposite end of the early flu cycle as the countries reporting high numbers of cases.
3) Most of them lack the type of hospital infrastructure that would lead to being able to even estimate the numbers. There are other, more stats- based caveats, but those come *after* these three.
Having said that, there is enough use of the anti-malarials around the world that we are familiar with the side effects,and what research there is strongly suggests the probability of usefulness in precisely the places we most want them (i.e. S/C cases) that the good in using them on a "compassionate basis" almost certainly outweighs possible harm.
Right now I still regard US data and most of the OEDC countries data (less Italy and Spain) as better than worse. I don't see this data indicating a worst case scenario yet. That may change as new data comes in, but right now it is saying "bad" not "catastrophic".
Meanwhile Gov Newsome of CA has effectively declared martial law. Sean Penn has called for the military to take over (hardly surprising from him. I just wonder who he wants giving orders), and Mayor DeBlasio has called for Trump to make the military manufacture necessary medical supplies. I truly wonder about people like DeBlasio. Our military is basically set up to break things and kill people, when deemed necessary by the proper authorities. They don't manufacture much of anything.