![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmV6BjMzp59BzxCXbzRCSGHMDQAub1C6FdYoyEMnCPCGLz/image.png)

Around the world there is plenty of blaming of politicians and civil servants for a blundering reaction to COVID-19.

But this is not mostly a story about individual performance. In a fast-moving crisis, when people aren't trained or prepared, some will always do a great job, some will do OK, and some will make big errors. I mostly just have sympathy for the poor sods responsible for managing all this.

The real mistake for which so many people over decades are blameworthy was in not preparing. We knew the risk of something like this happening was about 1 in 100 each year. Yet we are still being caught with our pants down.

There were so many obviously useful things that could be done. Plans written up by healthcare systems, central banks, the home office and more.

Sophisticated models built, published publicly, made flexible and easy to adjust, and checked by others.

Decision-makers briefed ahead of time about the massive calls they might be asked to make on short notice.

And systems built for testing and contact tracing, among many other things. Some of this was done, but so much was not done.

And so sloppy is humanity's approach risk management that the same thing will probably happen next time a disaster occurs for which we don't have a similar example in our recent memory.