[![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSNG53rJAygLspUUkqN8iwBPhEBfaDViJ5PauamizzDzM/image.png)](https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/19/newsom-orders-all-40m-californians-to-stay-home-in-nations-strictest-state-lockdown-1268248)


Shutting down the world's 7th largest economy is no small thing. California's economy is about 1/3 larger than Italy's.

Politicians have never been good at marginal thinking in public policy, but now they've abandoned it entirely to engage in a game of competitive overreaction. Whatever they do over there, let's do more. Our response goes to 11.



Look, the steps to increase physical distancing will have benefits, although I needn't point out that ALL the major hardships we've felt so far are from government restrictions. What political authorities do not and CANNOT take into account are the costs their policies impose on an ordinary person, despite their lip service to the contrary, which may or may not be "worth it" (to whom?) down the road.

But what I fear most is the panic and misery that will ensue when real shortages develop, and lives are ruined and lost, as governments keep shutting down the little activities they deem "nonessential" but that are the myriad nodes enabling people in supply networks to adjust to external shocks and give us the food, shelter, and medical supplies that we find necessary.

And the inevitable response if anyone criticizes extreme action is appeal to emotion: but somebody might die!

Yes, they might, and yet you get in your car and drive every day, making yourself a potential killer. So that's not a principled motivation for you. And shutting down your state will also kill people; you just don't know how many so you improperly slip a zero into that side of the equation.

Remember, the only test to become a politician is to appeal to enough people who aren't thinking deeply about who they vote for. There's no reason to have particular confidence in these people.