Electric car sales have been on a dramatic rise this past little bit. In the past 5 years, electric vehicle sales have over tripled. From 2016 to 2017, sales are up over 60%.
But that still leaves EV's with a pretty small market share. In the US, that market share is a little over 1%. Norway leads the world, where their heavy government incentives have led to 30% of all new vehicles sold being electric (although most of them are plug-in hybrids, not fully electric). China is at around 1.3% as well.
Progress is being made. Sales are increasing at a promising rate (in 2013, EV's had only a 6% market share in Norway). But how far away are we exactly?
## The Estimates Suck
The professional estimates from authority sources are terribly bearish. [The EIA for example](http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/transportation/315958-forecasts-for-electric-car-sales-are-all-over-map), says they will be 8% of sales by 2025 and then flatline there. This is actually pretty optimisitic by EIA standards though, just two years ago they were forecasting a market share of about 0.8% in 2025. [Morgan Stanley](https://cleantechnica.com/2016/11/22/electric-car-revolution-will-accelerate-soon-predicts-morgan-stanley-report/) has probably the most bullish estimate, with 10 to 15 percent market share by 2025. Other estimates usually lie somewhere in the middle.
Well, I'm here to say those estimates are all a bunch of bullshit.
*The new all electric Jaguar i-Pace*
## Those Same Estimates Have Continually Under-Estimated Electric Vehicles
Speaking of the EIA's 2014 forecast, how accurate was it? Well, in 2013 EV's had a 0.6% market share. The EIA predicted that would grow to 0.8% by 2025. It's obviously not 2025 yet, so we can't say for sure. But as of 2017, that market share stands around 1.3%. 8 years before the target date, and they have already almost doubled the estimate.
Estimates all seem to follow this trendline. They assume change will be gradual, when it reality it is sudden.
In fact, we have all the reason to believe EV's will outperform those numbers. In 2016, about 158,000 total EV's were sold in the US. In 2018, Tesla is aiming to sell upwards of 250,000 vehicles in the US *by itself*. Assuming they are able to sell 250,000 (which would have them coming in a little bit below targets), that would encompass about a 2% market share for Tesla alone.
## The EV Tsunami Is About To Come
Even with change happening as fast as it is, it's about to happen a lot faster.
The first reason is choice. If a consumer wanted an all-electric vehicle, they would have very limited options. The SUV/crossover segment is the most popular segment, and virtually the only choice available here is the Tesla Model X. Although the Model X is a great vehicle, it starts at $74,000 and then quickly goes up from there (reaching over $200,000 with all the bells and whistles). The Jaguar i-Pace will join the Model X within a few months, but it is likely to have a starting price around the same number.
That means that the single largest segment in the auto market today (the affordable SUV segment) is virtually untouched from electric vehicles. But things aren't going to stay this way for long.
*The Chevrolet Bolt, with a 238 mile range for under $40,000*
Tesla has an entrant to this category planned; it's been tentatively named the Model Y. Not too much is known about it at this point, but it's expected to arrive in 2019. But Tesla is far from alone here.
Ford has said they have an affordable electric SUV in development. It's been claimed to have a 300-mile range (which should blow away any range anxiety leave at 200 miles) and is set to arrive a year later in 2020.
Volkswagen, to the surprise of many, is actually the world's largest automaker by vehicles sold. They have 4 all electric vehicles in development, including one for this segment named the "I.D. Crozz". It's planned to begin mass production in 2020 as well. In fact, going back to that previous EIA estimate, they forecast a little under 1.4 million electric vehicles sold in the year 2025. Volkswagen has a target to sell *1 million* fully electric (not including any plug-in hybrids) vehicles in the year 2025 all by themselves.
There are plenty of plans and rumors from other that other automakers also have in development. Now, it's entirely possible that the automakers whiff on their timelines and arrive 2 to 3 years late. But that would still have them arriving firmly before 2025.
*Volkswagen ID Crozz concept*
## So What Will Sales Be Like In 2025?
My personal prediction comes down to a 30% market share by 2025. I think it's entirely possible they exceed that however, especially if they can cut into the truck segment by then. I wouldn't be surprised to even see a 50% market share.
But now we need to answer: how far does that put us away from 100% electric market share?
Well, here comes an even bolder prediction. Right now, electric vehicles are considerably more expensive than gas vehicles to buy upfront. They pay dividends in savings over their lifetime however, from reduced maintenance and repair costs to gas savings.
However, that won't be the case forever. Fast falling battery costs are going to change that, sooner or later. According to [Bloomberg New Energy Finance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-26/electric-cars-seen-cheaper-than-gasoline-models-within-a-decade), electric vehicles will be cheaper to buy upfront by the year 2025.
This should signal a dramatic transformation.
## 100% Electric Vehicles In...
The year **2035**. Okay, it's not likely to be 100%, but I can see 95% or better for cars sold that year. With electric vehicles costing far less to run, cheaper to buy upfront, and cleaner for the environment than ever before it's difficult to see why any sizable segment of the population would choose to go gas.
*Lucid Air, a startup all electric vehicle with a 600 kilometer range*
Now, for those of you calling bullshit, I would like to address a couple concerns.
**What About Range? Electric Vehicles Don't Have The Range!**
Yes they do. Current mass-market cars like the Chevrolet Bolt and the Tesla Model 3 have ranges approaching 400 kilometers for under $40,000. With battery costs falling so rapidly, range is likely a short-term issue. The average gas car has a range of around 500 kilometers. It's highly likely that consumers will will accept an electric range in this neighborhood as well. By 2025, the range issue will likely be a thing of the past (with the possible exception of very large SUVs, and pickup trucks depending on how fast things progress). By 2035, range will no longer be a major concern.
**Charging Takes Too Long!**
As range progresses, charging becomes less of an issue. With 350+ kilometer ranges, that virtually eliminates charging for daily use (since you're likely to just charge at home instead). That means charging will likely be rare for most people, probably limited to road trips and the like. Even on a road trip, a Tesla Supercharger can already charge 50% of the range within 20 minutes. Tesla is said to be currently developing charging that can do the job even faster yet.
Charging is likely to be a minor inconvenience of owning an electric vehicle, but will be far outweighed by the many inconveniences of owning a gas vehicle.
**So What Do You Think? Let Me Know Below**