Climate change could bring sea level to a point where the lower parts of the world are destroyed. In reality, this is widely considered inevitable. But what is the probability of reaching sea level and when will it happen?

This two-degree level is related to the difference between the current global average temperatures and those that existed before the industrial revolution, which began in Western Europe at the end of the eighteenth century. The limitation of the two-degree increase is believed to provide the best hope of preventing the adverse effects expected from many climate scientists. However, it will not be easy if measures are not taken to limit the burning of fossil fuels.

The increase in temperature of 2 degrees will cause a general increase in sea level of 0.8 meters in any case simply due to the expansion of the water when heating. This effect is already underway and the effects are particularly visible in low-altitude island states.

The polar ice caps are deposits of large quantities of ice water. One of the main threats to global warming is that enough ice melts to cause a significant rise in sea level.

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Scientists at the University of Washington in Seattle came to the conclusion that at least one large ice shelf in Antarctica collapsed, regardless of the mitigation of global warming. This is because the collapsing processes are irreversible.

An ice shelf is a tongue of ice that feeds glaciers and projects across the continent into the surrounding ocean. The platform of interest is about two kilometers thick, but its base can be reached with relatively warm sea water that melts. There would be no problem if the melting rate of the ice supply in the form of glaciers corresponds to the country, but that is no longer the case because the glaciers have withdrawn. As sea ice melts, more water can reach the bottom of the shelf and melt more.

When the ice shelf collapses and all of its ice turns into liquid water, the end result is a sea level rise of 3.3 meters. Taking into account another melting of the glaciers, in addition to the 0.8 meters increase mentioned above, the total increase expected will be 4.5 meters.

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Not necessarily! The hope that the increase in global temperature will stabilize at +2 degrees is a hope. What would be the probable scenario if, for example, the increase was 4 degrees?

The answer is - much worse. On the one hand, there are other Antarctic ice shelves that are subject to collapse. On the other hand, the Greenland ice cap is threatened and its point of no return could be reached in the next 50 years.

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If all this had happened and the ice had melted, a rise in the sea level of 4.5 meters would have been just the beginning. The total increase could reach up to 19 meters! The lower number would be enough to flood places like Holland and Florida, but the quadruple would have barely imaginable consequences.

It could take several centuries until the level is reached +4.5 meters, but it will certainly be reached at some point because the ongoing processes are irreversible.

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The worst case scenario, an increase of 19 meters, could be thousands of years in the future.

However, a one-meter increase that would have very serious consequences for the lower nations could be easy, which many people will experience and see today.

It depends on what is meant by "that". As mentioned above, some sea level rise is inevitable and even the expected 4.5-meter increase will have serious consequences for future generations. Plans for the future human settlement must take this into account because there are many places in the world where it is simply impossible and there is absolutely nothing that can be done to correct the situation.

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However, it is still within the reach of human ingenuity to prevent the worst-case scenario (an increase of 19 meters) from occurring much later. Global warming can be reduced to a manageable level if humanity is sensitive to the way energy is used in the future, especially to keep fossil fuels in the ground and seize every opportunity to obtain energy. renewable energy. use.

There are many obvious examples of how this can be done: in the United Kingdom, there have been several days in recent months when more electricity has been produced from renewable sources of oil and coal. Developments in battery design are progressing rapidly, giving rise to the hope that more energy can be stored and released, for example, solar and wind energy, if needed.

What is most needed is a common belief that the problems and rejection of governments around the world can be solved by the temptations of fossil fuel producers who can be heard, this is the only immediate concern.

The short-term outlook is not good for preventing sea-level rise. However, the long-term outlook is much more optimistic as long as we take our responsibility seriously for future generations.