RE: Why Bitcoin Could Fall Lower From Here by variable3209

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· @variable3209 · (edited)
$3.11
I began my cryptoasset journey in Aug, 2017. Thus, my opinions and perspective are likely that of an adolescent. The education in this area has been, as of recently, harsh and unforgiving. That being said, I have joined the HODler crowd and have weathered a few category 1-2 hurricanes in the past few months. Some were quite scary, like the BCash hostile takeover attempt (category 2 imo), and all of the FUD leading up to the non-issue of SegWit2x (potential for cat 4 but thankfully averted). The Bgold fork (tropical depression) was much milder in my opinion and I was happy to see that my pre-fork research was consistent with the actual post-fork result (ie nothing to worry about).

Despite those events being concerning, I could console myself because I could point to events or happenings that stood under, and were correlated with, the price action. Things could be rationalized by even a novice as myself.

Which brings me to the current situation of increased volatility and undiscernible price action. The market has become significantly more complex, and the devils that I am unaware of (being an investor newbie) have multiplied to the nth degree. I suspect these new players are surpassingly wealthy and influential, and their ability to control both the upside and downside of this relatively small market is simple child's play to them. Unclear to me what their overall intentions are. I suppose if they wished to kill this whole experiment (at the behest of their governmental/bureaucratic overlords) BTC would be dead or near dead already. Perhaps they are priming the market with low prices in preparation for a large bull run in 2018. That is my hope, of course, but its uncomfortable to be clinging to hope in the face of a potential category 5 nation-killer staring you in the face.

So, I feel like I am getting played. It's harder to make sense of what's going on and I suppose it will only get harder to rationalize from here.

This saddens my naive brain, thinking that we finally had a "free" market in cryptoassets where the laws of supply and demand rule the day. Of course, the whales have as much a right to be "free" with their money and influence, so I suppose the market IS truly free. And isn't this what I, as a libertarian, wanted in the first place: an unregulated space where great ideas and equally impressive technology can be backed by venture capitalists and Joe Six-packs alike with no preference or prejudice. Where the cream will rise to the top because of the virtue of the idea and not by the backroom dealings of the elite.

A different youtube crypto pundit recently posted an interesting article:

https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf

Given the endless philosophical debates concerning what BTC should be (store of wealth vs payment rail vs unit of account), the author makes a fairly convincing argument that the store of wealth characteristic of BTC is its strongest attribute from an investor's perspective. Additionally, he also astutely points out that having a strong payment method, although useful and welcomed, is merely added value on top of a more critical foundational store of value. He observes that, in our current milieu, there are MANY ways we transact daily. To quote the author directly:

 "Now think about how many different payment rails you’ve used over the past month: physical cash (perhaps in multiple currencies), Visa, Amex, PayPal, direct debit, SWIFT, etc.  They were all good and reasonably fit for purpose in slightly different ways and possessing slightly different features for the specific payment you were making: cash to tip the porter, Visa to pay on Amazon, Amex to buy a plane ticket and get the points, PayPal to pay on that dodgy website you don’t trust with your card number, direct debit to pay your utilities bill, SWIFT for an international transfer and so on."

Likely, the future crypto world will also be fragmented when it comes to payment methods. What is required is the underlying store of value, analogous to the role that fiat currency and, ultimately gold, fills today. Of course, of all the cryptoassets available today, BTC fills that role most robustly and reliably. It's simple use case is being fulfilled at the current time, albeit in a very stomach-churning fashion, but perhaps that is simply a function of time and change in mindset. Another appropriate quote from the author:

 "We should pause here to think about how long the emergence of a cryptoasset as a dominant monetary store of value might take.  On the one hand, gold’s been around for millennia, so the mental paradigm shift required might take longer than 10 years and never occur fully.  On the other hand, we rode horses for transportation for millennia and moved on from that pretty quickly and categorically with the advent of the superior technology of the motorcar.  That transition required a major buildout of physical infrastructure while the one that interests us here requires little more than a shift in mindset."

For those of us old enough to remember, when was the last time you saw or used a payphone?

I was encouraged by this article and highly encourage you to check it out in its entirety. The author delves into the different sectors within the cryptoasset realm (EVM, dApps, currency) and performs an erudite analysis, at least from my laymen's perspective. Please punch holes in this analysis and comment on any fallacies/assumptions that are incorrect or controversial; contrarian views are definitely welcomed.
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vote details (16)
@jojof · (edited)
$0.03
I do like a well-written piece ;) 
There's pundits on this very thread politely hinting a the demise of outdated bitcoin in the name of more efficient Ripple, and hey - it's so practical, you can directly use it from your bank - you know, the guys you always trusted with your money ! 
Just scroll, if you've been in the business you'll immediately recognize the approach.

So this is indeed what's going on, via several levels  The explosion of crypto must be led into controllable channels before the chance is lost. Most people in this market aren't  used to strategic thinking in a world of secret banking/intelligence services, so to speak,  and will in doubt follow the simple explanation...
simple neurophysiology at work.
While I'm at it, have you looked at Stellar Lumens (XLM) as opposed to Ripple ?

It's a token that could be used by anyone who buys some and can convince people to use their services much like a Western Union booth, or yourself, to send around the globe in seconds, fully decentralized (as opposed to Ripple), can be integrated with external exchanges, you know the sort - like bitshares.org ? Or with Amazon, or Walmart, and it's at this time being used as a banking transaction system in the South Pacific, that IBM helped setting up... http://fortune.com/2017/10/16/ibm-blockchain-stellar/

Of course, the article says, this is expected to be only temporary, as the little and large nation-states will soon develop crypto "of their own", and so will of course the banks, won't they. Ripple, or SWIFTCoin...
So the question is, will the little people understanding that they have to invest where it benefits them ?
They seem to understand virtual money as opposed to paper as opposed to gold but can they ever understand that freedom is preferable to being comfortable ?
 I don't think so, just watch what's going on in the streets.

So everything depends on marketing and market forces, and we're at this moment as on a darkling plain, watching the market forces at work, playing the people, who can't think of anything but short term gains.
I will visit your link in a second ;)

P.S.: what's a pay phone ?
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vote details (5)
@variable3209 · (edited)
LOL its a booth Clark Kent uses to change into Superman =)

I did check out XLM and definitely viewed it as a more "friendly" form of banking transfers vs XRP which I found unsavory and a naked attempt at banking to offer a product in this new asset class. I will admit that FOMO'd hard with the recent pump but the feelings passed and I am glad to not be a part of that train.
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@ricknarveson ·
@jojof, you sound like a crypto-anarchist. A very good crypto-anarchist!!! Great post.

Regards,
Rick
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@jojof ·
Me, an anarquista ? Nevar !  Just trying to not be insufficiently paranoid. Venceremos ;)
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@tumtum01 ·
Nice thoughts on long term crypto land.  As I told my mom...centralized crypto currencies will be a sign of the Apocalypse.   

Not to nitpick but do remember that XRP is not meant to be used as currency.  Not that your over-all message changes...just a large confusion even for what seem to be XRP investors.
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@jojof · (edited)
Okay, XRP is not really centralized, and not meant to be a currency - just an exchange  token. It's being controlled. In essence, we should be using something like dash ;)
Which I'm right now looking at, waiting for it to break out of the triangle. I'm also looking at Bitcoin again ;)
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@snakemeister ·
Great post. I can;t help but smile when reading it, only because we can all relate to the feelings you have as someone new to the market. Welcome :)

If you are truly team HODL, then I would suggest taking a break from looking at market trends and reading articles on the topic. I took a 1 year hiatus from looking at anything cryptocurrency related back in 2015 to help my nerves (I know a long time). Sometimes it is what's required though. Start small if you need to, maybe a month break, but try not to think too much about it if you plan on holding and not being liquid for trading. 

Cheers
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@variable3209 ·
Awesome advice. If only I had the discipline to follow through. Will take a shower now and try not take my water-resistant phone with me...
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@tumtum01 ·
You forgot China!
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@cryptovestor ·
Hi variable,

Sorry for the delay in the response. Thank you for the excellent piece. I plan to read it in full at some point here when I have more time, but for now going to address some of the comments you made in your comment. The market will always be manipulated as long as there is limited regulations and enforcements. Truly free markets aren't healthy - they are predatory. It's why we have 'limited' capitalism rather than full-on capitalism. For now, much of price action is dictated by a wealthy few.

I don't know how much stock I put into the "store of value" argument. As mentioned from your quote, gold is associated with being a store of value partially because it is ingrained in us from birth practically that gold is valuable. New technologies are adopted quickly because they have utility that improve our lives (e.g: horses to cars). It's difficult to convince the general populace that magical internet money is the new gold - especially when most of them weren't really looking for a new gold in the first place. 

Not only that, but Bitcoin has dropped 80%+ several times throughout its history which I hardly call a store of value. While Bitcoin has been called digital gold for years, it seems that people call it such more frequently during times of 'bubbly' activity to justify valuation. Over the long-term, cryptocurrencies must be better and easier to use than the equivalent centralized option or it's just going to continue to be niche. Plain and simple. I tend to think the vocal minority makes it seem like privacy censorship resistance is important, but most people simply don't care enough to deal with additional inconveniences to achieve such goals. I mean, Facebook & Google are two of the largest companies in the world. Anyway, some quick initial thoughts to chew on for now.
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vote details (2)
@variable3209 · (edited)
Hi CI,

Thank you for your kind reply. I feel I am speaking for the community in saying that you are providing a valuable educational service to beginners and experienced people alike. Your 100k subscribers is well-deserved and hopefully a sign of even better things to come.

Taking your points one by one:

I. "The market will always be manipulated as long as there is limited regulations and enforcements. Truly free markets aren't healthy - they are predatory. It's why we have 'limited' capitalism rather than full-on capitalism. For now, much of price action is dictated by a wealthy few."

Agreed, the wealthy and powerful run the show. All the weak can do is try to surmise the direction the wealthy are going and align their assets parallel to the prevailing agenda. Either that, or gather your friends, arm yourselves with whatever weapons/tools you have at your disposal, and wage some kind of war.

Incidentally, the predation you mention is probably some kind of war/conflict being waged on the exchanges, no? Who are the players in this war? If I bought BTC at $1000, am I waging war on the guy that bought at $10,000? Have I been enslaved or defeated by the guy that bought at $100? Is this a war with as many sides as there are investors? By entering the exchange, have I become both predator and prey? I should hate to think that I am your adversary in this arena.

II. "I don't know how much stock I put into the "store of value" argument ... It's difficult to convince the general populace that magical internet money is the new gold - especially when most of them weren't really looking for a new gold in the first place."

At the risk of splitting hairs, technically, BTC became a store of value on January, 2009 when Nakamoto mined the genesis block and the freshly minted coin was assigned a value based on the electricity used, the hardware required and the expertise in the software. Whether BTC is a store of value is not an open question; it absolutely is and has been for 8yrs now without exception.

But your broader question is whether BTC is a "good" store of value, and even beyond that, is it a store of value that the populace will accept, independent of it being good or not? A far more difficult question with many possible answers. I will admit that its volatility, as you pointed out, makes it a poor store of value, at this time. Just like the brick of a cellphone Michael Douglas used in "Wall Street" was a poor example of mobile communication, at that time. We could list endless analogies of initial technologies that were laughably inadequate at the time, but were refined by the visionary outlook of their innovators, the ironclad resolve and determination of their developers, and the increasing realization and demand of the end-users.

In BTC, I think we have all three. Nakamoto was clearly a genius-level visionary, if nothing else, to be able to set the world on fire with a 9-page white paper! It was clearly the work of a mind on par with an Einstein or von Neumann. She toiled in the dark and brought about arguably the greatest innovation since the internet itself in total obscurity without fanfare or shameful self-promotion. The core development team has been lauded for their curation of this asset for the past 8yrs. They appear to have significant short and midterm plans for BTC to address some of the technical concerns that have cropped up recently.  And you yourself will have to admit there is a great deal of pent-up demand for something, anything, that might even REMOTELY resemble sound money whose supply cannot be manipulated by central banks and governments, no matter how powerful they are or become.

As to whether people were really looking for a replacement for gold in the first place, you are probably right that this is not on the forefront of most people's minds.  But I do recall the media gushing over the original iPhone, stating that it was a product with features that we never knew we needed but, in hindsight, could never live without. Instead of a company acknowledging an existing demand and tailoring a product to fit, the product was so artfully created and visionary in scope that its mere existence sparked the demand. The iPhone taps into the hunger for freedom of expression, communication, efficiency, aesthetics, convenience, portable productivity - all the way up and down the psychological ladder, the thing taps into your very core. For proof, ask any 4yo child what mobile game they are playing, or the 84yo grandmother what gifts shes buying for Christmas on that iPad, or visit any Starbucks where 99% of the people will be sipping lattes while staring into their peripheral brains as though in deep, soul-searching meditation.

Its near universal adoption was the manifestation of decades of pent-up demand in the collective subconscious seeded by science fiction (Star Trek communication devices, Knight Rider watch phones) and science fact (TV remotes, Atari joysticks). Basically, this thing brought us where we thought we should be by June 29, 2007. And by the way it was gobbled up and permanently grafted onto our lives, it was LONG overdue.

Now think about a population flogged and beaten down by the powerful, abused and harassed daily, intruded upon, devalued, demoralized and dehumanized. Think about the ruling class that have essentially insulated themselves from any semblance of accountability for their actions and decisions. Ask yourself why only one person involved in the 2008 financial disaster has been convicted of any crime as far as I know, and he was a mid-level player from a second-tier institution, hardly the mastermind behind the whole debacle. Think about what the populace might be trying to communicate when we rejected Hillary and elected Trump.

A lot of people stare with amazement at the meteoric rise of BTC in 2017. It doesn't surprise me at all. The people of this world are shouting, "This is LONG overdue." They may not be able to verbalize a cogent understanding of the tech, philosophy and politics underlying BTC, or discuss its disruptive qualities, but they perceive it as an increasingly viable alternative to the inept, fraudulent, corrupt and manipulative monetary policy which seems to always disproportionately negatively affect the average person and not the parties actually being inept, fraudulent, corrupt and manipulative. 

BTC is a psychological pop-off valve which expresses our frustration with a system that enslaves its citizens and punishes dissent. It elegantly combines our need to gamble with the desire to own something foundational and sound, something upon which we can build generations of real wealth. It teaches us two fundamental lessons in wealth creation: to save and to be personally responsible for the value we are saving. It combines the elation of rapidly growing wealth with the caution and healthy paranoia of being good stewards of that wealth. It forces us to grow up if we are going to take this crypto-thing seriously. Ultimately, it gives us a chance to take a risk on something that might be simultaneously profitable AND righteous.

More and more I am accepting that we are in some kind of war or conflict and that it is a rigged game to favor the powerful. If BTC can be a weapon used to balance the terms of that engagement, count me in. That alone, HAS to be worth something. Quite a lot, I imagine and hope.
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