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 Yesterday I watched my beloved, optimistic, and the only television channel without lying in Russia - "Rain."  There, in the "Politics" program, the Director General of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) spoke, who opened for me the tremendous news: "Putin is a strategist who knows more than we do (in an era of universal transparency!), Sees further and makes difficult decisions,  which are necessary."

 Strategy with a narrow horizon of events and a short time lag

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 I can not find any of his decisions, which would have been taken in view of the wide horizon of events and would have had a long time lag.

 Putin came to power at the very moment when the siloviki began to seize the entire political and economic space in Russia.  This manifested itself in the creation of a mafia state.  When a small group of people connected with stable personal ties managed to seize most of the property in Russia, and the rest to be placed under control.  Using economic power and the refusal of citizens to participate in political activities, these people also seized the entire political space.

 By 2000, this trend had reached a decisive stage and Putin's appointment as a Yeltsin receiver was already a fait accompli, the era of the red directors in Russia was over, the era of the siloviki began.  Was it luck to get into a political trend?  I do not know, the problem for politicians is not only to jump on the wave, but not to fall a victim when it covers everything around.

 The Yukos affair in 2003 was the last point, the banner that the Mafia state seized the entire space of Russia and moved to an intensive stage of pumping resources from Russia in favor of a gang of bandits.  The YUKOS case itself has knocked out a piece of the foundation from the building of the Russian statehood under construction.  It showed that the trend to protect the institution of private property, political and civil rights is terminated.

  The era of conditional private property has come, when your property belongs to you only as long as you pay or render services to the siloviki controlling you and de facto owning your property.
 The destruction of the emerging institution of private property is a strategic failure of Putin.  The fact is that he had the power to violate the rights of individuals.  This was picked up by other siloviki and the cancerous tumor spread all over the country.  Tomorrow a young and hungry Navalny will come to power.  What will stop him from continuing the tradition of redistributing property?  What will happen to an outstanding strategist?

 In 2008, Putin allowed him to hold power for 4 years to his friend Medvedev, and in 2012 made his biggest mistake - he became an illegitimate president or lifelong king of all Russia.

 In 2000-2008, Russia had sustained economic growth.  The policy of quantitative easing of the US Federal Reserve System, cheap dollar led to an investment boom in emerging markets, including Russia.  In addition, Russia began to rapidly develop new industries that were not previously: IT, mobile communications, telecommunications and others.  Moreover, the prices for hydrocarbons have risen and the manna of heaven has descended on the Russian power.

 The only sure strategic decision would be to leave politics and in the rays of world glory to luxuriate in the sun on the Cote d'Azur.  But no.  The thirst for omnipotence did not give rest and Putin made his biggest mistake - he remained in power.

 From 2000 to 2012, two trends in Russia went hand in hand: economic growth led to increased incomes, and the Mafia state increased spending, transferring the stolen money to the countries of developed democracy.  It was in 2012 that she found a scythe on stone, incomes ceased to grow, and the appetites of the Mafia state did not decrease.  The economy has stopped coping with this imbalance, the search for new opportunities to retain power has begun.

 Economic growth has stalled in the institution of conditional private property, Putin began reaping the fruits of his economic failures.  Further, the solution curves began to accelerate.Once the economy failed, it was necessary to tackle world politics and begin redistribution of the world order after the Second World War.

 Putin seized the Crimea, taking advantage of the weakening of Ukraine, launched a war in the Donbass and got into an adventure in Syria.  Mass media controlled by the Kremlin unleashed mass militaristic hysteria.  The consciousness of most people remained at the level of authoritarianism and paternalism, and economic growth turned a head.  As a result, the space of understanding swelled and created the illusion of the greatness of Russia, people believed in the possibility of redistribution of the world, 86% of Russian citizens followed Putin in a space of illusions.

 But the illusion differs from reality in that they burst like a soap bubble, and reality is transformed.  The last blow, after which Putin will not be able to retain power, is the collapse of the illusions of the majority of Russian citizens about the fabulous grandeur of their own country.

 "... knows more than we see further ..."

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 This idea, that the master does not sleep, does not eat, does not drink roots in paternalism - the psychology of slavery.  The master receives the properties of the all-powerful demigod, but he is only a man.  If a very talented person can solve 5-10 questions a day, the remaining decisions are forced to delegate to others.  But the people live by faith and are convinced that everything comes from the master.

 The trouble is that the usurpation of power and the inability to delegate authority puts an authoritarian leader in a situation that ruins him without options.  Around him an information vacuum is formed, only the information that he is ready to hear is delivered to the reports.  Receiving distorted information, the "all-seeing" authoritarian leader becomes covered with mucus deceit, it swells into a soap bubble and tightens the eyes and ears.  The stronger this trend, the more toxic the decisions become.

 First of all, they frighten the investment herd.  Fear of an unpredictable monkey with a grenade, even in the presence of juicy greens, causes it to flee and create an increasing flow of outflow of investment.  After economic problems, the power base is eroding, it begins to jerk frantically and seek new ways of omnipotence.  But the toxic environment starts the flow of even more inefficient solutions, with each subsequent cut off the previous possibilities, leaving an increasingly narrow space for maneuver.

 The last resort is always war ...