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In the UK, cases have been increasing in the past two weeks.  This increase is driven mostly by the delta (India) variant.  However, neither hospitalizations nor deaths have increased.  It's possible that there is just a delay, but at least with other variants, two weeks is enough time to see hospitalizations and deaths start to come up after an increase in cases.  

It's possible that the increase in cases is mostly in people with partial immunity from prior infection or a single dose of vaccine, and that the partial immunity is protecting them from severe symptoms. Looking at the numbers from the UK, most of the delta cases are in those without any vaccine. But those with two doses of vaccine are still much less likely to get it than those with just one.  

It may also be that the delta variant is less pathogenic than the alpha variant.  In the most recent UK report, the case fatality rate for the delta variant has been much lower than for the alpha or beta variants.  In cases in Feb through May, the fatality rate for alpha (UK) and beta (SA) were both 1.2%.  For delta (India) it was 0.2%.  

The delta variant has clearly killed a lot of people in India, but that might be because of the large number of infections, not because it's particularly pathogenic.  Even a small percentage of a very large number infected can still be a pretty large number.  When viruses mutate, sometimes they have to make tradeoffs.  And it may be the case that the delta variant has traded off pathogenicity for the ability to spread quickly in populations with partial immunity. On the other hand, when the UK does an adjustment for risk factors, the delta variant is actually more pathogenic than the alpha variant, so it may just be that the people getting the delta variant in the past few weeks are disproportionately young and healthy. This is something that should become more clear as time goes by. 

The US is lagging the UK a bit in vaccinations, and the delta variant is here already.  So I wouldn't be surprised if we see an increase in total cases here in the coming weeks.  

![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/zafrada/23tT24arKHw1TKCQGrqqajtx4kTmeBeR5nffnYiBbFsT8ikiVndLYFaczjNV7GSHJqydB.png)


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Link to UK Report : https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/991343/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_14.pdf