Hey guys! This bear market is looking pretty bad as Steem hits $0.50, lows we haven't seen since early 2017. However, just because the value of our cryptocurrency is dropping doesn't mean our ecosystem is worth any less than it did a week ago. 

In fact, our network continues to **grow** in value day by day as developers work on new and existing dapps, pushing through the frontier of technology and decentralisation. 

# Steem Monsters
Steem Monsters is the most successful dApp so far on this blockchain. I am sure that many more games will come out in the future on the Steem blockchain, to rival this status, but for now Steem Monsters is the [golden standard for dApps](https://d.tube/#!/v/coruscate/iaf4pivm). The marketcap of Steem Monsters cards is sitting at around $1,400,000 right now, that's almost 1% of the value of every Steem in existence! As new packs are opened and prices of cards increase, this number will rise and I expect this ratio to rise too. 

## Steem Monsters as a Hedge Against Bearish Market
The majority of my crypto has been poured into Steem Monsters cards, and this has probably been my best crypto decision all year. **I have mainly invested, analysed and followed alpha cards only so the remainder of this post will focus on alpha cards.**

The fiat value of Alpha Cards seem to be stablising as there aren't many buys left and sellers seem to be unwilling to let go of their cards at a low price (from experience, as a very active buyer. However, there are very little unopened alpha packs left nor will there be any more, so the supply of alpha cards is now purely dictated by the amount of people who wants to sell. 

# Some Analysis of Alpha Card Prices
Firstly, [here's how I calculated the exact drop rates of each rarity and thus the expected value of a pack.](https://steemit.com/steemstem/@cryptoeater/revised-calculations-of-expected-value-of-steem-monsters-alpha-pack)

[Here's my latest update regarding the price of Alpha Packs](https://steemit.com/steemmonsters/@cryptoeater/steem-monsters-daily-alpha-pack-price-update-14)

## Price History
I only really have data from the past 16 days, which is how long ago I first started collecting data on alpha packs. Below is a graph of the expected value of an alpha pack. 
* Expected value definition: how much you **statistically expect** to get from opening an alpha pack, without any consideration in "luck"

![image.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmdDBzigFEKB4AZ9qVA9hLPqVxYPmdoQXEJXXdZf6YK4X6)

As you can see, the price of alpha packs have been decreasing. This decrease in price was due to a flood of over 14,000 excess (listed-sales) alpha cards being listed in the past 2 weeks. There were around 38,000 cards listed 2 weeks ago, now there are over 52,000, peaking at around 53,000 earlier. 

This is likely due to a combination of many of the remaining packs being opened in the last couple weeks and getting sold via market, and some others selling their alphas to buy betas as they realise it's easier to level up betas (through quest and season rewards). However, as tournaments and delegations come out, I feel like there will be once again more of a shift towards alpha cards since some tournaments will be alpha only. 

Furthermore, the drop in price could also be due to the devaluing Steem. If we inspect the value of alpha packs in terms of Steem, we can see that it's actually increasing.
![image.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmdFSBBiFmDb78XYYdeR3yW1bN5kApucahMEExBtnACiER)

At the current price of $0.50 per Steem, the expected value of a pack is nearing 5.5 Steem each. Just a week ago, the expected value of an alpha pack was only around 4 Steem each. 

# Conclusion 
Personally, I feel like Steem Monsters is a great way to hedge yourself against the devaluation of Steem and other cryptocurrencies in a bear market. After all, these cards have innate value and utility from season rewards and even more once tournaments come out. In a bear market, holding these cards are a great way to cut your losses. 

If Steem were to be bullish again, I **suspect** Steem Monster cards would also be quite bullish as they have more money to spend on these cards since the majority of Steem Monster players are holders of Steem, but this is purely speculation. 

# Alpha packs for sale 
I'm currently selling alpha packs at $3.50 each! If you'd like to buy some, feel free to send 3.85 SBD per pack to me and include in the memo where to send the packs to! 

*Currently not accepting Steem due to the high volatility of it.*