RE: Some thoughts on natural monopolies by nealmcspadden

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· @nealmcspadden ·
$0.44
Eh, you're oversimplifying to abstraction.

How did TTC get a monopoly in the first place? All of that capital raising and infrastructure building would have been noticed by other people in the economy and attracted competition well before there was 100% market penetration. 

Like you say, it depends on how you define your terms. Peter Lynch, a famous fund manager, was famous for buying companies that had a natural competitive advantage. I remember one was a gravel quarry in the NYC area somewhere. It just wasn't cost-effective for a new company to come in and create a gravel quarry because of the cost of real estate, permits, etc. So if we grant that those costs were not heavily influenced by various other legislation (they were), then you have something near a monopoly for a small geographic region. 

But then what? If the quarry used their monopoly power to the point where it made sense for a consumer to ship in gravel from farther away then the quarry would be losing business. So even in that case there was some competitive pressure to keep prices lower than monopoly theory would suggest.

Even in cases where industries formed an outright cartel like the famous trusts of the late 19th century there were always defectors trying to steal market share by undercutting the established cartel price. Look at the basket case that is OPEC today to see the same effect. "Smaller country, cut production by 80k barrels per day." "Hmm... no."

In the tech space the landscape is littered with IP laws and lawsuits. It's a freer market than most simply because of the pace of innovation, but we can see in the crypto space with its generally open source software that we get a lot more variety a lot faster without artificial barriers to entry.
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@tobixen ·
> How did TTC get a monopoly in the first place? All of that capital raising and infrastructure building would have been noticed by other people in the economy and attracted competition well before there was 100% market penetration.

In reality when it comes to telecom markets, many of the big ones were granted monopoly rights.  I still believe it could have worked out without government intervention - maybe not at the biggest scales, but still ... if one company would start with telephone lines while everyone else are using horses for message delivery, one can get quite a competitive edge.  It's of course risk taking at its fines level ... one can say that people should be rewarded for taking risks, but it is harmful for the society that one company has such a big grip on the market decades later.

If TCC would be starting i.e. in City of London, expanding to Westminster and so forth ... even if another company starts in another borough of London, the TCC could gain such an upper hand that they could gradually overtake customers from the competitors or buy up the competitors, becoming the de-facto monopolist in all UK.  Fully possible I think ... but it's quite hypothetical.

Microsoft, Facebook and Google are the bigger elephants in the room, internationally.
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@nealmcspadden ·
The only one of those that could be considered to be approaching a natural monopoly is Google, and we are seeing their market share shrink (although still very high). 

Market domination is just a temporary phenomenon when there aren't laws and guns supporting a firm.
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@tobixen · (edited)
Facebook probably doesn't deserve the label "monopoly" - but still I think it's a major problem that "everyone" expects "everyone else" to have a Facebook account.  I still haven't joined Facebook, but it's sometimes making things difficult for me, and I know people that have missed invitations to weddings and similar due to not being at Facebook.

As I've written in my post, Microsoft is losing some of the grip on the markets, but it's still pretty hard i.e. to buy a regular laptop without paying a "Microsoft tax" - and I'm regularly getting into problems both from my children, my wife, the childrens school and other instances for not providing Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office at home.  Microsoft still has a pretty good grip on those things - you may argue that they don't qualify as a "monopolist company" due to the mere fact that alternatives indeed does exist, but the problem doesn't go away by arguing over definitions.
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@tobixen ·
> So if we grant that those costs were not heavily influenced by various other legislation (they were), then you have something near a monopoly for a small geographic region.

> But then what? If the quarry used their monopoly power to the point where it made sense for a consumer to ship in gravel from farther away then the quarry would be losing business. So even in that case there was some competitive pressure to keep prices lower than monopoly theory would suggest.

That's pretty much what I said - the price limit for what the "monopolist" can charge is limited by the alternatives, in this case the price for shipping in gravel from quarrels further away, not by the actual cost of production.  Now if it doesn't cost too much shipping in gravel from quarrels further away, it doesn't matter that much for the end consumer anyway.

On a related note, I've heard quite some Russian fishing boats unload their cargo in Tromsø, Norway and ships the load by trucks through Finland to Moscow rather than by rails from Murmansk because the harbour fees in Murmansk are too high.
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@tobixen ·
> In the tech space the landscape is littered with IP laws and lawsuits. It's a freer market than most simply because of the pace of innovation, but we can see in the crypto space with its generally open source software that we get a lot more variety a lot faster without artificial barriers to entry.

The network effect is still very strong.  Consider Bitcoin, it historically had some 80-95% market share of all cryptos according to coinmarketcap, all until they got into capacity problems.  Even though it's open source, it's heavily centralized both at the mining side and the development side.
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