Finally someone that uses price action and provides 'what if scenarios'. You've also accurately painted a picture of the context rather than just pick out a familiar looking pattern and using that as some kind of signal. We have very similar charting styles. I'm a big fan of horizontal lines and no indicators.

A couple of other things to take into account would be the buying and selling pressure due to arbitrage opportunities in the Steem Dollar and the implications of the removal of the liquidity rewards in the internal market. 

Thanks for your analysis.