Crypto - Is the party about to begin again? by jrcornel

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· @jrcornel ·
$51.06
Crypto - Is the party about to begin again?
https://s33.postimg.cc/sfnv1cbxb/Bitcoin-party.jpg

# It's been painful to be a crypto investor for the last 9 months, but that may be about to change.

Since peaking in December of 2017, bitcoin has mostly gone down.

Altcoins, including steem, experienced a euphoric rally shortly after in January of 2018, but ever since it has been mostly all down hill as well.

However, that all may be about to change...

Why might I say that you may be wondering?

Seasonality!

# There seems to be some major seasonality to bitcoin and crypto trading.

We all know about the negative seasonality that seems to happen at the beginning of the year related to the Chinese New Year and also tax related selling, but there is also some majorly positive seasonality towards the end of the year as well.

Not sure exactly what I am talking about?

Check this chart out:

https://s33.postimg.cc/uvpoextxb/MW-_GQ052_bitcoi_NS_20180913155601.png

(Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/battered-bitcoin-bulls-are-latching-on-to-this-seasonality-chart-2018-09-14)

Not sure what you are looking at here? Don't worry, I'll explain.

Each block represents a day.

Each green block represents a day that bitcoin had an increase in price.

Each red block represents a day that bitcoin had a decrease in price.

Simple enough, right?

# Take a look at that 4th quarter...

Since 2015, over the last 3 years, bitcoin has had 14 red days during the 4th quarter, **COMBINED!**

Let that sink in for a moment, there are 3 months in a quarter and we are dealing with 3 years of data, which gives us roughly 92 days multiplied by 3 years, or 276 days worth of data points.

Out of those roughly 276 days, only 14 of them were red over the past 3 years.

**That means that 95% of the days in the 4th quarter have been green over the last 3 years.**

Talk about a good time to be a bull!

# Oh yea and then there is this...

Today, Mike Novogratz is calling the bottom in the crypto markets:

https://s33.postimg.cc/9nbzxk56n/Dm_YPCz_Xg_AAEE9_U.jpg

(Source: https://twitter.com/novogratz/status/1040288811643809798)

At this point, the parabolic portion of the bull cycle has been completely erased, something Novogratz said likely represents a bottoming out point in the crypto markets.

He also called the top back in December, he's a smart guy and a good one to pay attention to.

When you combine his call with the strong seasonal period we are about to enter, I think there is very high probability that the party is about to begin again in crypto land.

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

https://altcointoday.com/biggest-influencers-bitcoin-price-2016/

Follow me: @jrcornel
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@gutespi ·
Certainly the crypts have changed in many ways not only the world economic reality but also the lives of many of us, thanks to this a new world of possibilities opens before us and allows us to develop in ways that we had never before imagined, for its This requires investment and work but it's worth it.
πŸ‘  
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@jrcornel ·
$0.07
Yes, hopefully.
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@cryptotrader84 ·
It's look like party time
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@jrcornel ·
$0.07
It has been long overdue for party time.
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@wstanley226 ·
God I hope so.

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://steemit.com/@partiko-android)
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@jrcornel ·
$0.07
You and me both.
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@d-pend ·
$0.60
I was 150% confident that this would happen earlier this year, but now I wonder if we'll see an anomaly, similar to what is shown for 2014. However, we've been bearish for a while and there is way more going on in the crypto space these days. I'd guess it's more likely to see some bullish action across the boards than to keep floundering, especially because I suspect there's been a lot of price manipulation by whales during the past months to acquire some cheap crypto before the next inevitable explosion :-D
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@jrcornel ·
$0.08
Yes, there is 2014 to consider, especially since most of the price action up to now for 2018 closely resembles that year as compared to others. That being said, in general, the 4th quarter is often a good time to be long crypto, with only a few outliers like in 2014.
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@edicted ·
That "outlier" in 2014 is the most important piece of data.  The market has a way better chance  of going that route because the 2017 pump/dump was similar to the 2013 pump/dump. 

Obviously, I hope I'm wrong... but I feel like this post is extremely biased and full of wishful thinking.  I've been guilty of the same move  on multiple occasions... thought there was going to be another bull run in the summer.
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@edicted ·
![complete parabola2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQcXv1JnZr9C4wgiWtHq28zHn6hDi4V8yQzG3fWAcbRHv/complete%20parabola2.png)

Obviously I drew this a while back... but Bitcoin has amazingly stayed inside the parabola.  There is still a chance it could complete it by the end of the year.  If you look at the 2013/2014 pump/dump the parabola was broken pretty much in the month of September/October.  I guess we're close to finding out.
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@jrcornel · (edited)
$4.00
Do or die time. If it breaks down, it looks like we won't see bullish price action till roughly June of 2019 if it were to follow the pattern of the 2014-2015 bear market.
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@steemvive ·
If you want to resteem or wanna upvote your post and want to promote your post, you can send 0.5 SBD to @steemvive  and give that post link in memo, then it will be get upvote from our groups and 100% payment back if you won't get back. Steemvive  gives you more back than you want. we have 20k followers in our group and many delegates. so don't worry to upvote your post. 

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@moghul ·
Its been very painful journey indeed over the last few months.
Hopefully cryptos follow the seasonality and bring cheers
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@futurethinker ·
I think it will take a while longer! But another bull would not be so bad
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@jrcornel ·
$0.13
Yes, the euphoric phase may be a ways off still. In the past, bear markets turned into slightly bullish markets for a long period of time, there there was a short euphoric burst where the really big gains were made which was followed by a crash. Though, even if prices don't moon this quarter, just pulling bitcoin back up around $8,500 or higher and steem back up over $1.50-$2.00 would make many people feel like partying. ;)
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@futurethinker ·
Hmm I researched a few markets, and havent seen that happening. The bump to 50% that was for me the short bullish moment. I think if it goes up, it will slowly go up.
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@rynow ·
$0.02
I hope both you and Mike are right!! Just remind me to sell at the end of December!!
I however note that this year has a lot more reds than the other years, although it looks very similar to the 2015 pattern, which has the green starting at the end of September, in other words about next week!!
πŸ‘  
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@jrcornel ·
$2.79
Very true, though I think it actually most closely resembles that of 2014, which if that is indeed the case, we won't get much of a 4th quarter rally. I am hoping this time is different though, dangerous last words. :)
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@rynow ·
Let us hope for the best!!
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@newageinv ·
$0.02
Unfortunately, past results do not necessarily forecast future performance...  However, I do believe that the demand for most of the blockchain related assets remains high and the problem lies with the amount of assets still out there that have not added assets which are dragging down sentiment of the overall market.  The next bull run will highlight the divergence of quality assets only!
πŸ‘  
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@jrcornel ·
$2.85
While that is a very good point and certainly true, there is something to be said about seasonality as it relates to crypto. As you know, crypto doesn't really have any fundamentals. No earnings no balance sheets, no dividends. It is driven purely by animal spirits. Which in my opinion, would make seasonality patterns slightly more prevalent and predictable than they would be in something that wasn't driven quite so much by human emotion. Just my thoughts. :)
πŸ‘  , , , ,
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@sanees ·
better not 2014!!!
πŸ‘  
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@jrcornel ·
$0.06
It may be! The price action up to now most closely resembles that year...
πŸ‘  , , ,
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@imowaisab ·
Being An Investor You can go through bearish & bullish , The one who have patience can win the battle.
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@jrcornel · (edited)
$0.06
Yep. Crypto moves in cycles. You buy and hold during the bearish cycles and you take profits during the bullish cycles.
πŸ‘  , , ,
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@imowaisab ·
Easy to say & difficult to implement because of greediness.
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@jamesbrown ·
$0.03
Damn.  Bitcoin be better than Tom Brady and Russel Wilson combined in the fourth quarter!
πŸ‘  
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@jrcornel ·
$0.06
Haha nice analogy. But yes, it has been, at least over the past 3 years.
πŸ‘  , , ,
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@thatkidsblack ·
Not much of an elephant, but this is what I referred to in my last comment. With seasonality in mind, I felt there’s almost a sense of inevitability when it comes to the market concerning crypto. Whether that thinking is flawed or not is the responsibility of due diligence, but as far as my amateurish opinion appraises, it feels like a safe bet.
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@oliviaschiffmann ·
it would be nice indeed to see green once again instead of this ongoing red streak within the portfolio 🌱
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@vikisecrets ·
I am starting to get bullish again πŸ˜„
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@corndog54 ·
$0.06
Let the Party begin!  πŸŽ‰ 🎊 🎈
πŸ‘  ,
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@bluehorseshoe ·
There is a direct relationship between the sand worms and the spice.
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@haikubot ·
<em>There is a direct 
Relationship between the 
Sand worms and the spice. 
</em>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<sup>- bluehorseshoe</sup>

---
<sup><sup><em>I'm a bot. I detect haiku.</em></sup></sup>
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@jrcornel ·
$0.06
Yes there certainly is.
πŸ‘  , ,
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@blazing ·
This is the time the last year the growth was happened without any institutional support hopefully this year will end on a big :)
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@surikowstepanuk ·
@jrcornel, you are interested in reading, maybe you read me too
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@bitcoinfox ·
Really nice and thorough research and review! nice mate! keep it going!
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@teamsteem ·
$0.69
Cool stats but you've reported on it incorrectly. 

> Each green block represents a day that bitcoin had an increase in price.

> Each red block represents a day that bitcoin had a decrease in price.

The correct stats is what's below, and I wouldn't be surprised if we'd see a repeat of that trend this year. I'd be surprised if we didn't. 

> *"Each square represents a day and green means **the prior four weeks experienced a positive return, while red means a negative return.** The trend is so lopsided that there have been just 14 red days in the final quarter of 2015, 2016 and 2017 combined."*
πŸ‘  
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@jrcornel ·
$4.08
The wording of that is very strange. For example why would they say the prior 4 weeks of data is represented in the following block, but then later on say there has only be 14 red "days"? The correct verbage should be there have only been 14 red "blocks", because technically there were likely more than 14 actual red "days". Thanks for pointing that out, though I wish the data was what I had reported instead. ;)
πŸ‘  , , ,
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@teamsteem ·
Haha! You're right! Good catch! I wish yours what right too but I had read it correctly first then read yours and didn't realize your mistake which I then repeated to a couple of people. 

I then consciously realized something was off when I looked at the last 3 months of 2017 and saw more than 14 "negative" days for Bitcoin in that year alone.
πŸ‘  ,
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root_title"Crypto - Is the party about to begin again?"
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vote details (2)