Teasing the SBD peg. by tcpolymath

steem · @tcpolymath · Nov 19 '18

$2.41

Teasing the SBD peg.

So with the fall of the last few hours, we're now on the verge of seeing the SBD peg break when the total supply of SBD becomes more than 10% of the market cap. When that happens the system will (or should) stop trying to hold SBD at $1 US and start holding the value of SBD at 10% of the Steem market cap.

That won't actually happen until the 3.5-day moving average price gets to that point, which will be at least three days from now, and still might not ever happen if Steem starts crawling back up. And we're also seeing some nice rises in SBD-to-Steem conversions, which could lower the Steem price necessary for the peg break. Over the last few days the magic number has fallen from 49c Steem to 46c Steem, and could be falling farther as many of us holding SBD convert them, buy more, and repeat.

It's hard to predict what will happen to the market price of SBD if the peg breaks. As Steem hit that last step down to 50c, the price of SBD fell substantially, which suggests we might see a panic drop from people who were expecting it to travel back to $1. One the other hand we may also see a rise (at least relative to Steem) from speculation that it will make its way back to $1 eventually. As long as Steem has some positive value, that should happen in time, as we'll stop printing SBD until it can be re-pegged at $1, but conversions will still be available.

We could even see both, with a quick price drop and then a gradual rise. It doesn't seem like the buy SBD -> convert -> repeat cycle should be able to continue indefinitely on the backs of people selling SBD below its nominal value, but I thought that two months ago.

The important thing to remember is that SBD doesn't lose any value at the moment the peg breaks; it just stops being pegged to USD at that value. It starts being pegged to Steem instead, with the value being based on how many SBD there are vs. how many Steem. As SBD gets converted the value of each remaining SBD, denominated in Steem, will increase. Whether that's an increase when denominated in anything else, who knows. We could have a ways down to go yet.

</div>

<center>![Steem.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmYr5VbKsxfka4g6WoPqH4L3CGcCao76u4en9VQqFoTLUp)</center>

👍 gooddream, steembasicincome, helpiefanclub, meno, steem-ua, busy.pay, mattclarke, lisaocampo, frost04, mariusjuk, blissfish, crokkon, helpie, eonwarped, cryptogamestrat, pibara, paulag, iamjadeline, archisteem, slickshot, professorbromide, particleman, bitfiend, personz, asapers, ngc, kimzwarch, hitmeasap, crimsonclad, jassennessaj, sharpshot, steemitri, hoist, markgritter, veleje, mylichie, espoem, minismallholding, bembelmaniac, kph, qurator-tier-0, revisesociology, daan, clayboyn, infamousit, rach, musicvoter, kymio, charitybot, kywt, momogrow, lordbutterfly, dmaniac, discordiant, superstarxtala, steemusa, wayoutwest, tryskele, mindtrap, mrultracheese, liabilityy, nerdtopiade, insideoutlet, berniesanders, and 63 others

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@sharpshot · Nov 19 '18

I'll have to take a closer look at how this works.  Strange to think how much SBD was worth just a few months ago.  This market is savage but hopefully it will be kinder to buyers in 2019

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://steemit.com/@partiko-android)

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@crokkon · Nov 19 '18

> it just stops being pegged to USD at that value. It starts being pegged to Steem instead, with the value being based on how many SBD there are vs. how many Steem.

I haven't had a chance to take a look into the code, but do you know if this would be a "smooth" transition, moving away from 1 USD, or could the SBD value kind of "jump" at the transition?

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@tcpolymath · Nov 19 '18

I only have a theoretical understanding, but I don't see why there would be a jump, other than that maybe the feed price moves dramatically, and in that case a jump is appropriate.

Now, does the code work properly? That's a question we may get the answer to pretty soon.

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@smooth · Nov 22 '18 (edited)

In theoretical terms it is a smooth transition as described in the post but the blockchain does work in terms of discrete blocks and beyond that the price feed only updates once per hour. So there are definitely some jumps.

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@crokkon · Nov 22 '18

Thanks for the clarification!

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@veleje · Nov 19 '18 (edited)

I'm clueless about the math and inner dynamic but I'm here converting few SBD that I have for almost 2 STEEM per 1 SBD, sound good to me ;-)

I have a feeling somewhere in 4000 land BTC stops sinking down and starts going back up. And then STEEM will (I'm guessing) start rising faster than SBD.

👍 veleje

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@gooddream · Nov 19 '18

myself and some friends were just talking about this yesterday and didn't know... it's amazing that you would write about this the very next day.  Are you staying near us in the Dominican Republic or something?  :P

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@tcpolymath · Nov 19 '18

Sadly I'm somewhere much, much colder.

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@blissfish · Nov 20 '18

<center><h1>Congratulations!</h1><br>This post has been granted a 100% upvote, courtesy to @wokeprincess, from BlissFish!<br>Enjoy the Bliss!<br><hr><a href='https://discord.gg/gqWDz9U'> Join us on Discord!</a></center><blockquote>Upvote this post to help the minnows win a bigger upvote!</blockquote>

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@steem-ua · Nov 20 '18

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Your **UA** account score is currently 4.724 which ranks you at **#1528** across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has improved 39 places in the last three days (old rank 1567).

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 215 contributions, your post is ranked at **#47**.
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@apshamilton · Nov 21 '18

$0.06

I've done further analysis on this issue here: https://steempeak.com/@apshamilton/sbd-to-steem-conversions-and-the-sbd-haircut

👍 hamismsf, jadabug

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properties (23)vote details (2)

voter	weight	wgt%	rshares	pct	time
jadabug	0 B		439,911,614	1.2%
hamismsf	0 B		101,679,202,312	80%

@steemitboard · Nov 21 '18

Congratulations @tcpolymath! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/60x70/http://steemitboard.com/@tcpolymath/commented.png?201811211934</td><td>You got more than 3000 replies. Your next target is to reach 3250 replies.</td></tr>
</table>

<sub>_[Click here to view your Board of Honor](https://steemitboard.com/@tcpolymath)_</sub>
<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>



**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**
<table><tr><td><a href="https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/meet-the-steemians-contest-the-results-the-winners-and-the-prizes"><img src="https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeLukvNFRsa7RURqsFpiLGEZZD49MiU52JtWmjS5S2wtW/image.png"></a></td><td><a href="https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/meet-the-steemians-contest-the-results-the-winners-and-the-prizes">Meet the Steemians Contest - The results, the winners and the prizes</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/meet-the-steemians-contest-special-attendees-revealed"><img src="https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeLukvNFRsa7RURqsFpiLGEZZD49MiU52JtWmjS5S2wtW/image.png"></a></td><td><a href="https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/meet-the-steemians-contest-special-attendees-revealed">Meet the Steemians Contest - Special attendees revealed</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/meet-the-steemians-contest-intermediate-results"><img src="https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeLukvNFRsa7RURqsFpiLGEZZD49MiU52JtWmjS5S2wtW/image.png"></a></td><td><a href="https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/meet-the-steemians-contest-intermediate-results">Meet the Steemians Contest - Intermediate results</a></td></tr></table>

> Support [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)! **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!

properties (22)

`post_id`	66,393,752
`author`	steemitboard
`permlink`	steemitboard-notify-tcpolymath-20181121t202458000z
`category`	steem
`json_metadata`	{"image":["https:\/\/steemitboard.com\/img\/notify.png"]}
`created`	2018-11-21 20:24:57
`last_update`	2018-11-21 20:24:57
`depth`	1
`children`	0
`net_rshares`	0
`last_payout`	2018-11-28 20:24:57
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 SBD
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`pending_payout_value`	0.000 SBD
`promoted`	0.000 SBD
`body_length`	2,165
`author_reputation`	38,705,954,145,809
`root_title`	"Teasing the SBD peg."
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 SBD
`percent_steem_dollars`	10,000

@bitfiend · Nov 23 '18

Thanks for explaining this.  It's a little confusing though.  Is this the reason that I am getting some STEEM in my payments now?  

One thing I heard was that steem is designed to be within a 10% value to SBD but it could just be heresay.  It makes me wonder how SBD  or STEEM could ever be worth more in the future.

properties (22)

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`author`	bitfiend
`permlink`	re-tcpolymath-teasing-the-sbd-peg-20181123t182059570z
`category`	steem
`json_metadata`	{"app":"steemit\/0.1","tags":["steem"]}
`created`	2018-11-23 18:21:00
`last_update`	2018-11-23 18:21:00
`depth`	1
`children`	0
`net_rshares`	0
`last_payout`	2018-11-30 18:21:00
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 SBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.000 SBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 SBD
`promoted`	0.000 SBD
`body_length`	317
`author_reputation`	6,539,665,809,709
`root_title`	"Teasing the SBD peg."
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 SBD
`percent_steem_dollars`	10,000